COVID-19 and India: A very helpful video clip: Not to be missed
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Sukla Sen
Mar 22, 2020, 4:08:30 AM3/22/20
to foil-l, Say NO 2 UID Core Group
(Please click on the link above.)
A very helpful video clip, even if, somewhat, longish.
The immediate problem, in India, is too restricted testing.
The reason appears to be that (i) the number of test kits is, perhaps, dismally inadequate and (ii) so is, definitely, the case with facilities for quarantining.
The end result is the deceptively small number.
4-8 million severe cases predicted, here, with 70,000 (total?) hospital beds available.
That, in a way, tells us what could happen.
As regards likely deaths:
In a slightly different way, the extent of infections predicted, here: 20-60% (in line with US projections).
Taking the lower limit and assuming 1% (instead of more standard 2-3%, let alone 9% (ref.: <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/>) in Italy, with, understandably, much stronger public healthcare infrastructure) of that, it comes to 0.2% (of 1.3 billion).
That's 26 lakh?
While the facilities for treatment is too woeful and can in no way be expanded overnight, the only rational response is to try, as sensibly and as vigorously as possible, to limit the speed of the spread.
One, strongly, suspects that Tali Bajana (clapping hands) and Thali Bajana (banging utensils) don't count.
The next 2-3 months is projected to be most crucial.
The video clip, in the later part, also provides info useful for individuals.
The immediate problem, in India, is too restricted testing.
The reason appears to be that (i) the number of test kits is, perhaps, dismally inadequate and (ii) so is, definitely, the case with facilities for quarantining.
The end result is the deceptively small number.
4-8 million severe cases predicted, here, with 70,000 (total?) hospital beds available.
That, in a way, tells us what could happen.
As regards likely deaths:
In a slightly different way, the extent of infections predicted, here: 20-60% (in line with US projections).
Taking the lower limit and assuming 1% (instead of more standard 2-3%, let alone 9% (ref.: <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/>) in Italy, with, understandably, much stronger public healthcare infrastructure) of that, it comes to 0.2% (of 1.3 billion).
That's 26 lakh?
While the facilities for treatment is too woeful and can in no way be expanded overnight, the only rational response is to try, as sensibly and as vigorously as possible, to limit the speed of the spread.
One, strongly, suspects that Tali Bajana (clapping hands) and Thali Bajana (banging utensils) don't count.
The next 2-3 months is projected to be most crucial.
The video clip, in the later part, also provides info useful for individuals.
Peace Is Doable
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