The Stunning Outcome of the State Poll in Maharashtra (and a Pleasant Surprise in Jharkhand)

[Sukla Sen]

The outcome is just stunning.

Almost none saw it coming. Not the Mahayuti victory, but its huge scale. Only(?) Axis India exit poll was fairly close.

A success has many fathers and a failure is an orphan.

Thus goes an old saying.

And we are all wiser after the event.

("We all are wiser after the burglar has already decamped with the booty." Thus goes a popular Bengali saying.)

The scale of the vote shift over a period of seven-eight months is just mind-boggling.

(For comments by 

I. Yogendra Yadav: <https://youtu.be/B6t939dRZfA>.

II. Rajdeep Sardesai: <https://youtu.be/OXVFZB2Cys8>.)

Rajdeep Sardesai has scathingly blamed the Congress for not coming up with an effective counter to the Ladki-Bahin Yojana -- presumably the primary cause for the electoral earthquake (coming on top of "Ek Hai To Safe Hai!") . (Not UT and SP. In a way that speaks for itself.) But provided just no clue as to what would have been a proper response.

The organisational weakness of the Congress is of course a given and a constant. It cannot be just wished away. Nor it's easy to rebuild the organisation. Even the momentous BJY, and the follow-up BJNY, while making a sort of miraculous impact on the national mood -- turning 2024 from a completely one-sided game to some sort of a contest -- could do precious little on this front.

Then there's the hugely tilted nature of the playing field. From the partisanship of the ECI to the sizes of the respective financial resources and the role of the MSM. Yet another given.

(So far as the EVMs are concerned, accusations must not be casually hurled.

Specific concrete evidences must be meticulously collated and then pursued till end. We've not seen that as yet.)

Yet in Jharkhand, defying predictions and open hatemongering in the form of persistent tirades against the imaginary "infiltrators", the INDIA has scored quite a handsome victory.

That's pretty something.

And the arrest warrant against Gautam Adani in the US is still there. And won't immediately disappear even after Jan. 20. And the US media is not a replica of its Indian counterpart. And won't dramatically change after Trump takes over. At least in the immediate.

Also not to miss, Modi is persisting with his label of "urban naxals" for the Congress and the cry of "Ek Hai To Safe Hai'.

Neither is meant to be just momentary.

Both have extremely ominous implications.

The final (summarised) score:

I. Maharashtra 

BJP: 132.

Shiv Sena (Shinde): 57.

NCP (AP): 41.

Shiv Sena (UT): 20.

Congress: 16.

NCP (SP): 10.

Others: 12.

(The VBA has scored a duck.)

II. Jharkhand 

JMM: 34.

BJP: 21.

Congress: 16.

RJD: 4.

CPI(ML)(L): 2.

Others: 4.

For results of by-polls for sundry assembly seats: <https://www.livemint.com/elections/bypoll-election-results-2024-live-updates-uttar-pradesh-punjab-kerala-bye-elections-result-wayanad-11732245793328.html>.

The Congress has retained both the parliamentary seats -- one in Kerala and one in Maharashtra - for which by-polls were held.

Addendum:

I/II. <<Overall, 65.22% of the total number of women registered to vote in the state, turned out to be heard on Wednesday. That’s 30.64 million of the 46.99 million women voters registered with the Election Commission.

That’s a turnout of just 1.62% less than the corresponding figures for male voters. There, 66.84% of total men registered to vote turned out. (Or, 33.43 million of the 50.02 million male voters registered in Maharashtra.)

Incidentally, that gap of just 1.62% was far higher — standing at 4.41% — in the Lok Sabha election held in April-May. That figure stood at 3.51% in the last assembly polls, held in 2019; and it stood at 2.64% in the assembly polls in 2014.

...

This time’s assembly polls saw the highest turnout (65.11%) since 1995 (when turnout stood at 71.7%). In that year too, the turnout of women was higher than usual, and the gap between the turnouts of men and women was low, at just 2.64%. That proved to be an anti-incumbency vote, seeing the reigning Congress-led government fall, to be replaced by a Shiv Sena-BJP government.

(Ref.: <https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/pune-news/pune-varsity-announces-fees-for-various-new-courses-for-this-academic-year-101732469193786.html>.)

[A spike in polling rate almost invariably indicates a wave. For or against.]

II. While in Maharashtra, the CSOs were quite proactive striving to ensure an MVA victory, nothing of that is reported from Jharkhand.

That, unmistakably, points to the limits of their effectiveness. They, at times, may prove highly useful as force multipliers. But if the main force founders, they also, consequently, just fall flat on their faces.