I. Based on the *trends*, as of now:
As it looks, the BJP may not touch 300.
Maybe, around 295.
Last time it was 282.
The Congress would be, most likely, 50 +/_.
Unlikely to touch 55, the qualifying number (?) to be considered as the Leader of the Opposition.
In any case, in the emergent scenario, that may not amount to much.
Last time: 44.
RJD is leading in 1.
That gives the Bihar picture.
TMC has suffered a major setback.
Though still much the largest.
But, if we look at the trajectory of the fall of the LF, then...
Moreover, now, there's a chance of the state government being dislodged/dismissed.
The UDF appears to have done pretty well in Kerala.
So has the DMK-led front in Kerala.
The ruling coalition has done poorly in Karnataka.
The Congress appears to have done well in Punjab.
II. What happens now???
AA. Dislodging/dismissal of a few state governments may now be in the pipeiline.
BB. Attack on opposition parties, to demoralise and/or break them up by using carrots and sticks (ED/IT/CBI etc.)
CC. Further intensification of non-state physical violence.
DD. In terms of policy moves:
(i) An early roll-out of the NRC nationwide.
(ii) Mega sale of PSUs.
(iii) Trashing of environmental norms and safeguards.
(iv) Tightening the grip over the education infrastructure and institutions.
(v) Further defanging of watchdog institutions.
(vi) Attacks on civil society organisations.
(vii) More repressive laws, if felt necessary.
...
Sukla