Necessary new jobs decline with shrinking labor force
June Zaccone
The labor market could become so backward that the economy will have to shed jobs to keep unemployment steady Jason Ma, Fortune, 8/1/26
...a report from Dallas Fed economists earlier this year found that the breakeven rate of employment growth, or the number of net new jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment rate steady, actually went slightly negative during the summer and fall of 2025.
That means payrolls can be stagnant or shrink, and the unemployment rate will hold steady instead climb. Such a phenomenon may not be an anomaly but instead become the norm.
On Thursday, Oxford Economics estimated the breakeven rate is currently about 50,000 new jobs per month, down from more than 200,000 in 2022 and 2023, when immigration surged.
But with Trump returning to the White House, restrictive immigration policies have slashed the supply of foreign-born labor over the past year and a half. Separately, labor force participation has fallen as the population ages.
As a result, the breakeven rate will fall to zero next year and turn slightly negative in 2028, according to economists Matthew Martin and Bernard Yaros.....
AND MORE ON THE LABOR MARKET:
We Are Mildly Horrified by This AI Startup That Coerced People Into Getting Tattoos of Its Logo in Exchange for a Job Interview "If you're reaching out to us to apply for a job, you might want to take notes." Joe Wilkins, Futurisn, Aug 1, 2026
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