new article on partisan (in)stability in climate change beliefs

[Dunlap, Riley]

Some of you may find a new article reporting the results of a four-year study involving quarterly surveys of Oklahoma residents of interest, as we found significantly greater variability in Republicans' beliefs about climate change  than among their Democratic counterparts (whose beliefs are consistently more in line with climate science).  It provides a bit of optimism about the possibility of overcoming partisan polarization on climate change, but of course the key is if acceptance of the reality of human-caused climate change will ever lead Republicans to top voting for politicians who promote denial and block action to reduce carbon emissions.   Nature Climate Change simultaneously published a short piece by psychologist Matthew Hornsey highlighting the significance of our study.

Here is the relevant information.  If you are interested and your library does not provide access to Nature Climate Change, I'll be happy to share pdfs with you:

Hank C. Jenkins-Smith, Joseph T. Ripberger, Carol L. Silva, Deven E. Carlson,

Kuhika Gupta, Nina Carlson, Ani Ter-Mkrtchyan and Riley E. Dunlap

 

“Partisan asymmetry in temporal stability of climate change beliefs,” Nature Climate Change, published online March 9, 2020. /

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0719-y#Abs1https:/

Abstract

 

Existing literature on climate change beliefs in the US suggests that partisan polarization begets climate change polarization and that the climate beliefs of those on both sides of the partisan divide are firmly held and invariable. Here, we use data from a large panel survey of Oklahoma residents administered quarterly from 2014 through 2018 to challenge this perspective.  Contrary to the expectation of rough symmetry in partisan polarization on climate change, we find that partisans on the political right have much more unstable beliefs about climate change than partisans on the left. An important implication is that if climate beliefs are well anchored on the left, but less so on the right, the latter are more susceptible to change. We interpret this to suggest that, despite polarizing elite rhetoric, public beliefs about climate change maintain the potential to shift towards broader acceptance and a perceived need for action.

 

 

Accompanying “News&Views” piece:

 

Matthew J. Hornsey

 

“Flux in skepticism raises hopes,” Nature Climate Change, published online March 9, 2020.

 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0721-4

 

Abstract

 

The partisan divide between Republicans and Democrats on climate change is large and shows no signs of narrowing. However, a new analysis shows that Republicans’ climate change attitudes were relatively unstable between 2014–2018, triggering cautious optimism that a tipping point in attitudes might be around the corner.

Riley E. Dunlap

Regents Professor of Sociology

and Dresser Professor Emeritus

Department of Sociology

Oklahoma State University

Stillwater, OK  74078