Fwd: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business
Ron Baiman
From: Barbara Sneath <bjsn...@meer.org>
Date: Mon, Feb 5, 2024 at 10:10 PM
Subject: Re: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business
To: Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>
No worries. It was my fault because I should have sent it earlier. There were about 40 people on the call and the video recording will be available in a week or so.BarbaraOn Mon, Feb 5, 2024 at 9:08 PM Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com> wrote:Sorry I missed this Barbara!On Sun, Feb 4, 2024 at 10:01 AM Barbara Sneath <bjsn...@meer.org> wrote:Hi Ron,Would you mind reminding HPAC etc. folk about this MEERTALK at 2 pm EST today.Best wishes,Barbara---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: UK Divest <nor...@event.eventbrite.com>
Date: Sat, Feb 3, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Subject: Reminder for The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Bad Advice Makes Risky Business
To: <bjsn...@meer.org>
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robert...@gmail.com
Following my theme of seeing the funny side in all this, you have to laugh at the fact that this report doesn't mention cooling at all and only has one passing reference to geoengineering. Its three stage action plan is 'to estimate how GHGs emissions will change in the future', then to assess 'how much warming will be driven by a certain level of GHGs and how quickly this warming will happen', and finally 'to estimate how much damage these physical risks will inflict'.
Can someone please explain to me why
actuaries, with the invaluable help of Tim Lenton (who as far as
I'm is not an actuary) have zero interest in anything that might
reduce the damage? One obvious answer to that question is that
they agree with me, that we haven't got the communal wit to do
so, so we'd best plan for it to be as bad as it could be!
Robert
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Clive Elsworth
Robert
> explain to me why actuaries, with the invaluable help of Tim Lenton have zero interest in anything that might reduce the damage?
Remember what Bru Pearce said: “Follow the money”. Academics who advocate geoengineering get hounded out of office, as Prof Stephen Salter will attest. It doesn’t matter if it’s only to brighten some marine clouds (as ships were doing pre-SO2 regulation). It’s taboo and dangerous.
So, the actuaries are presumably unaware of what could be possible. So, someone needs to tell them..?
About two years ago I suggested a presentation to be named “Climate Solutions with Legs.. and Clothes” but people were mystified. Maybe now’s the time.
Clive
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robert...@gmail.com
I've now had a chance to scan through this report and I must say, notwithstanding its abject failure on cooling, it is one of the best summaries of the current status of climate science that I've seen. They use sources such as Keen to challenge the economics orthodoxy and recognise that ECS needs to be replaced by ESS if we are to get a complete picture of warming. It discusses the uncertainty around climate response time and generally paints a pretty bleak picture. I particularly like the graph below.
It seeks to u=illustrate the pathway towards a 100% collapse of global GDP assuming a simple logistics curve and alternative assumptions as to the temperature at which damages amount to 100% of GDP. The scary bit is the light blue line that represents the quadratic functions currently used by most economic models.
The report is well worth reading. And then
ask again, why no mention of cooling!
Robert