Concerns of climate intervention: understanding geoengineering security concerns in the Arctic and beyond

[Geoeng Info]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-022-03345-8

Concerns of climate intervention: understanding geoengineering security concerns in the Arctic and beyond

Joseph Versen, Zaruhi Mnatsakanyan & Johannes Urpelainen

Abstract

As the global community struggles to meet carbon emission goals and climate-related disaster becomes more likely, geoengineering technologies are more frequently being considered as a possible defense against global warming. The Arctic, in particular, given its importance in future global climate dynamics as well as the fact that the region is already experiencing the effects of a warming planet, has become a focus for prospective geoengineering efforts. Here we explore different governments’ geopolitical interests to apply geoengineering (or, more specifically, solar radiation management) techniques to lessen the effects of global warming in the Arctic region. Based on interviews with experts in geopolitics and geoengineering, we find that most Arctic regional and quasi-regional actors have little incentive to use geoengineering to preserve the Arctic in particular in the near future. Melting Arctic ice presents a variety of short-term economic opportunities for all, though the rapidly changing climate will introduce significant challenges globally as Arctic sea ice is an important climate driver in lower latitudes. If geoengineering is to pose a threat to Arctic security, it will likely not come until imminent climate crises elsewhere prompt greater attention to the Arctic climate.