Reversing Sahelian Droughts

[Geoeng Info]

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093129

Reversing Sahelian Droughts

Katharine Ricke, Detelina Ivanova, Taylor McKie, Maria Rugenstein

Abstract

Earth system modeling of climate geoengineering proposals suggests that the physical outcomes of such interventions will depend on the particulars of the implementation. Here, we present a first attempt to “geoengineer” a well-known teleconnection between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and Sahelian precipitation. Using idealized earth system model simulations, we show that selectively cooling the Indian Ocean efficiently increases precipitation in the Sahel region, widening the seasonally migrating rainband over Africa. Applying the SST perturbations derived from the idealized experiments to observationally constrained historical ones, we find that our intervention can reverse conditions as extreme as the mid-20th century Sahelian drought, albeit less efficiently than in the idealized simulations. Side effects include changes in the seasonal distribution of Sahelian precipitation and substantial precipitation reductions in sub-Saharan East Africa. This work represents a proof-of-concept illustration of effects that might be expected with a tailored, regional approach to climate intervention.

[David Sevier]

If you can do this great. It would be good to see another technology that can do this. It will likely be applicable to other regions too.

I would point out some of the consequences that will flow from this that should give you considerable pause and concern. If you can do this, then you will create a drive from the countries/ regions that will gain rainfall (especially where currently there is little) to maintain and continue the new rainfall that will be HUGE regardless of damage caused to other regions. They will seek to increase rainfall if they can green their deserts. Remember that about 1/3 of the earth’s land is desert and a further 1/3rd is water stressed. The potential for creating conflict is very large. When I talked to people about an alternative technology that could do this ten years ago, I came away with the feeling that war and potentially nuclear war could be the result of unleashing a technology that could do this on the world. Technology of this power needs very strong governance that has real teeth or war will be the result. You must address and solve this if you are serious about your technology. I buried mine as the risks outweighed everything else. Terrified me the idea of giving powerful counties such strong reasons to go to war with each with stakes greater than have ever existed before. An example to focus the mind: imagine being able to break the triangular winds of Australia so that a bone dry continent regularly received rain (not not flooding rain that runs off), but what if the cost of this was that India’s monsoon failed and India lost this rainfall. One country would be desperate to keep the technology and the other equally desperate for it to stop. Both have access to nuclear weapons. 

Tread very carefully. 

Sent from my iPad

On 23 Dec 2021, at 1:20 am, Geoeng Info <infog...@gmail.com> wrote:



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