Re: [CDR] Re: Limited climate change mitigation potential through forestation of the vast dryland regions

[Andrew Lockley]

From what I understand this study doesn't include cloud fraction changes, so it's pretty limited. Correct me if I'm wrong 

On Sun, 25 Sept 2022, 17:10 Michael Hayes, <electro...@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks, Suzanne

The struggle with future-proofing such large investments and policy decisions is likely the primary limiting factor in the WH and industry. Everyone involved wants longterm dependability yet STEM advancements are now in an exponential rate of increase and new STEM, last years breakthroughs, are rapidly being made obsolete.

The WH does likely need an office(r) of CDR STEM, policy, and economics synthesis simply to short through the many concepts to find STEM commonalities that can be exploited to help avoid almost immediate STEM obsolescence. In example, MCB and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement have technical commonalities, invest in one and that supports the other, microalgae cultivation using floating bioreactors has a technical connection to OAE and OTEC has a technical connection to bioreactors, etc. The more STEM commonalities we find, the better for the investors and politicians as it helps future-proof the investment in the STEM. A web of mutually supportive technology is more reliable than any single tech option.

This CDR group has done an outstanding job, a world class job, at detailing and debating the many different CDR options yet finding STEM commonalities that can be used to future-proof the likely huge investment of political capital as well as capital itself that CDR now needs may best help policy makers and investors drop the hammer.

Best regards

On Sat, Sep 24, 2022, 7:35 PM Suzanne Reed <csuzann...@gmail.com> wrote:

Complex indeed, Michael!  Thank you for responding to my comments and expanding the scope of the conversation to a more holistic framework.  Humans have done a right good job of disrupting all ecosystem cycles and relationships and the economies that depend on them.  Many of our Healthy Planet Action Coalition participants are exploring various aspects of direct climate cooling and GHGR to contribute to ecosystem restoration.  You may be interested in the Compilation of Comments on the White House Office of Science and Technology Programs-lead study of climate intervention research needs found here,  https://docs.google.com/document/d/1v2eoFQUtXc7J3vX37jJ2dBAJUiBPRNMu/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=117772987047166624642&rtpof=true&sd=true

The work of The Climate Foundation may be of particular interest if you are not already familiar with it.

Best wishes,

Suzanne

On Sat, Sep 24, 2022 at 1:10 PM Michael Hayes <electro...@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks for the clarity, Suzanne. Biology is never simplistic, the Sahara was likely green not that long ago.

I follow marine carbon issues in general and the oceanic deserts in particular. To support terrestrial soil-based solutions, at a multi-gigaton/yr scale, one obviously has to look at the soil water/energy/nutrient nexus needs at the equivalent scale. I support using the oceanic desert-based WENN resources for vast scale soil improvements as that overall land/sea strategy works the planetary C cycle at two important extreams and in a mutually supportive STEM, policy, and economic fashion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/news.2008.795#:~:text=Low%2Doxygen%20regions%20have%20expanded,years%2C%20according%20to%20new%20measurements.

We have an excess of marine C yet a shortage of soil C. The same can be said for nutrients and marine deserts are likely expanding far faster than terrestrial deserts. Farming the oceanic deserts for WENN resources, that can be applied to vast scale terrestrial efforts, would likely help mitigate marine desert expansion to some extent simply by operating in those waters. We need to cool vasts amounts of seawater, adjust the pH of a vast amount of seawater along with other measures, and as you likely know, with minimal impact on wildlife. 

Marine Cloud Brightening, artificial upwelling, biomass cultivation, electrolysis, fresh water/ice production etc would be technically supportable while providing upstream WENN resources for vast scale terrestrial efforts. The above does represent a rather complex biotic and abiotic STEM basket, policy and economic basket yet the full spectrum of the critical STEM components is likely available today. Policy and economics of such a vast scale shifting of resources are, as we all recognize, different chapters.

Best regards 

Michael Hayes 

On Sat, Sep 24, 2022, 11:43 AM Suzanne Reed <csuzann...@gmail.com> wrote:

I appreciated the targeting approach but issues of water supply, tree species, and species mix are relevant to this topic, especially when there is intent to rely on reforestation and sequestration as offsets.

Suzanne

Suzanne Reed

Healthy Planet Action Coalition

https://www.healthyplanetaction.org/

On Sat, Sep 24, 2022 at 9:34 AM Albert Bates <alb...@thefarm.org> wrote:

I found this article quite hopeful actually. There have been a lot of unsupported reactions to the afforestation of drylands. This study finds that after subtracting the albedo effect, reforestation/afforestation has a nearly 30% net cooling effect. I actually think that the 448 MHa estimate (approx nine Spains) is low once in-fill regrowth is fully quantified, not just the broadscale open regions surveyed by satellite. BAU Scenarios are a bit of a red herring because they follow an impossible exponential trend. I often hear that "deserts have their own ecology" and need to be protected, and while that is true to a degree, it is also true that many, if not most, are recent and anthropogenic. Putting back forests where they once were is one means we have to restore balance to the carbon cycle at a planetary scale.

On Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 8:24:09 AM UTC-5 andrew....@gmail.com wrote:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm9684

Forestation of the vast global drylands has been considered a promising climate change mitigation strategy. However, its actual climatic benefits are uncertain because the forests’ reduced albedo can produce large warming effects. Using high-resolution spatial analysis of global drylands, we found 448 million hectares suitable for afforestation. This area’s carbon sequestration potential until 2100 is 32.3 billion tons of carbon (Gt C), but 22.6 Gt C of that is required to balance albedo effects. The net carbon equivalent would offset ~1% of projected medium-emissions and business-as-usual scenarios over the same period. Focusing forestation only on areas with net cooling effects would use half the area and double the emissions offset. Although such smart forestation is clearly important, its limited climatic benefits reinforce the need to reduce emissions rapidly. 

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Suzanne

Suzanne Reed

The Collaboration Connection

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Suzanne Reed

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