Volcanic mega-eruptions may trigger major cholera outbreaks

[Andrew Lockley]

https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v79/n2/p151-162/

Volcanic mega-eruptions may trigger major cholera outbreaks

Zsolt Pinke1,2,*, Stephen Pow3, Zoltán Kern4

*Corresponding author: pinke...@gmail.com

ABSTRACT: Reviewing the results of environmental epidemiology, post-volcanic climatology, and environmental history, we focused exclusively on volcanic eruption-ENSO and ENSO-cholera connections in order to establish a hypothesis that large tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions trigger an environmentally driven cascade process via post-volcanic ENSO anomalies. This cascade process has tended historically to lead to cholera outbreaks in Bengal (i.e. the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta region of modern India and Bangladesh). To test our hypothesis, we set up a dataset from strong tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic events that forced the ENSO system, ENSO indices, and historical data for cholera outbreaks. Eight volcanic eruptions (≥3.3 W m-2) were accompanied within 2 yr by El Niño events over the past 500 yr. For the 19th-20th century period, all selected volcanic eruptions were accompanied by major cholera outbreaks in Bengal during the examined post-volcanic years. For the past 500 yr, the likelihood of the occurrence of major post-volcanic cholera outbreaks was 75%.

KEY WORDS: ENSO · El Niño · Bengal · Tambora · Samalas · Pinatubo · Environmental cascade