| WEEKLY SUMMARY (30 OCTOBER - 05 NOVEMBER 2023) Subscribe to Solar Geoengineering Updates for free to receive new posts and support my work. DEADLINES:
RESEARCH PAPERSPeccia, A., Moussallam, Y., Plank, T., DallaSanta, K., Polvani, L., Burgisser, A., ... & Schaefer, J. (2023). A New Multi‐Method Assessment of Stratospheric Sulfur Load From the Okmok II Caldera‐Forming Eruption of 43 BCE. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(21), e2023GL103334.AbstractThe 43 BCE eruption of Okmok Volcano has been proposed to have had a significant climate cooling impact in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we quantify the climate cooling potential of the Okmok II eruption by measuring sulfur concentration in melt inclusions (up to 1,606 ppm) and matrix glasses and estimate a total of 62 ± 16 Tg S released. The proportion reaching the stratosphere (2.5%–25%, i.e., 1.5–15.5 Tg S) was constrained by physical modeling of the caldera-collapse eruption. Using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2.2 climate model we found a linear response between cooling and stratospheric sulfur load (0.05–0.08°C/Tg S). Thus, the 1–2°C of cooling derived from proxy records would require 16–32 Tg sulfur injection. This study underscores the importance of combining approaches to estimate stratospheric S load. For Okmok II, we find all methods are consistent with a range of 15–16 Tg S.
Dumelié, N., Vernier, J. P., Berthet, G., Vernier, H., Renard, J. B., Rastogi, N., ... & Joly, L. (2023). Toward Rapid balloon Experiments for sudden Aerosol injection in the Stratosphere (REAS) by volcanic eruptions and wildfires. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.AbstractStratospheric aerosols are greatly influenced by medium-to-large volcanic eruptions. Over the last few years, extreme wildfires have been identified as new sources of stratospheric particles, in the form of carbonaceous aerosols injected by pyroCb events in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, associated with significant impacts on climate and ozone chemistry. To assess the impact of wildfires and volcanic eruptions on stratospheric aerosol loadings in the Northern Hemisphere, the Rapid Experiments for sudden Aerosol injection in the Stratosphere project has been initiated. REAS is an international initiative that aims to respond to sudden events impacting stratospheric aerosol composition. Seventeen balloons were launched from Reims, Eastern France, between November 2021 and January 2022 to quantify the atmospheric content for both aerosols and trace/greenhouse gases from the ground up to stratospheric levels. The main measurements concerned trace gases (CO/CO2 as tracers of smoke) and aerosol together with ozone using instruments such as a gas collector, optical particle counters, backscatter sondes, an aerosol sampler, an aerosol impactor, and ozonesondes. GSMA launch facility provided unique possibilities of combining multiple measurements in one flight thanks to medium flights (corresponding to a 6kg payload). While no major event impacted the stratosphere during the campaign, we particularly discuss the influence of the aged volcanic plume from La Soufrière volcano (Saint Vincent island) and smoke particles from series of pyroCb events that took place in North America. The burden as well as the optical and microphysical properties of the observed aerosols are quantified from these in situ observations in association with various satellite data.
Fan, Y. (2023). Unequal effects of climate intervention on agriculture. Nature Food, 1-2.AbstractModel simulations show regional disparities in the responses of national crop productions to a suite of solar geoengineering scenarios that reflect sunlight to cool Earth.
James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman G Loeb, Matthew B Osman, Qinjian Jin, George Tselioudis, Eunbi Jeong, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Gary Russell, Junji Cao, Jing Li. (2023). Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2023, kgad008.AbstractImproved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
Senel, C. B., Kaskes, P., Temel, O., Vellekoop, J., Goderis, S., DePalma, R., ... & Karatekin, Ö. (2023). Chicxulub impact winter sustained by fine silicate dust. Nature Geoscience, 1-8.AbstractThe Chicxulub impact is thought to have triggered a global winter at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary 66 million years ago. Yet the climatic consequences of the various debris injected into the atmosphere following the Chicxulub impact remain unclear, and the exact killing mechanisms of the K-Pg mass extinction remain poorly constrained. Here we present palaeoclimate simulations based on sedimentological constraints from an expanded terrestrial K-Pg boundary deposit in North Dakota, United States, to evaluate the relative and combined effects of impact-generated silicate dust and sulfur, as well as soot from wildfires, on the post-impact climate. The measured volumetric size distribution of silicate dust suggests a larger contribution of fine dust (~0.8–8.0 μm) than previously appreciated. Our simulations of the atmospheric injection of such a plume of micrometre-sized silicate dust suggest a long atmospheric lifetime of 15yr, contributing to a global-average surface temperature falling by as much as 15°C. Simulated changes in photosynthetic active solar radiation support a dust-induced photosynthetic shut-down for almost 2 yr post-impact. We suggest that, together with additional cooling contributions from soot and sulfur, this is consistent with the catastrophic collapse of primary productivity in the aftermath of the Chicxulub impact.
Müller-Hansen, F., Repke, T., Baum, C. M., Brutschin, E., Callaghan, M. W., Debnath, R., ... & Minx, J. C. (2023). Attention, sentiments and emotions towards emerging climate technologies on Twitter. Global Environmental Change, 83, 102765.AbstractPublic perception of emerging climate technologies, such as greenhouse gas removal (GGR) and solar radiation management (SRM), will strongly influence their future development and deployment. Studying perceptions of these technologies with traditional survey methods is challenging, because they are largely unknown to the public. Social media data provides a complementary line of evidence by allowing for retrospective analysis of how individuals share their unsolicited opinions. Our large-scale, comparative study of 1.5 million tweets covers 16 GGR and SRM technologies and uses state-of-the-art deep learning models to show how attention, and expressions of sentiment and emotion developed between 2006 and 2021. We find that in recent years, attention has shifted from general geoengineering themes to specific GGR methods. On the other hand, there is little attention to specific SRM technologies and they often coincide with conspiracy narratives. Sentiments and emotions in GGR tweets tend to be more positive, particularly for methods perceived to be natural, but are more negative when framed in the geoengineering context.
PATENTAbstractMethods of geoengineering are provided to create shade by reflecting solar radiation into space to mitigate global warming, as well as reduce storm severity, and other applications. These methods rely on dispersing hollow silicate microspheres into the atmosphere, or into orbit, by aircraft or rocket, where the silicate microspheres can optionally comprise additions of one of boron or sodium, or both. Silicate microspheres manufactured on the Moon can be delivered to Earth or L1 orbit as an alternative to lofting from Earth’s surface. Hollow silicate microspheres are more than 6 times the size of comparable solid SRM particles. This method substantially improves reflectivity, solar-powered lofting, and, in the presence of liquid water aerosols, the greater surface area enables improved carbon dioxide capture.
WEB POSTS
DISCUSSIONS
UPCOMING EVENTS
YOUTUBE VIDEOSCool Us or Kill Us? Did Geoengineering ALREADY Cause a Massive Famine? | PBS Terra “This episode of Weathered explores the controversial world of solar geoengineering by injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, looking at both the controversial promises and profound risks associated with manipulating the Earth's climate. Luke Iseman, the founder of Make Sunsets, tells us about his start up that is already releasing small amounts of sulfur dioxide into our skies. And then we speak with leading scientists from the non-use initiative against solar geoengineering or solar radiation management who warn against the potential dangers of this untested technology. Then we discuss the tragic drought and famine of the 1980s in the Sahel region of Africa and and its likely link to air pollution from the US and Europe. This episode sheds light on the intricate balance of our planet's weather and climate, and the human interventions that could change it forever.”
An Intimate Conversation with Leading Climate Scientists To Discuss New Research on Global Warming | SDSN “On behalf of renowned climate scientist, Dr. James Hansen, we are pleased to share this virtual event entitled “An Intimate Conversation with Leading Climate Scientists To Discuss Ground-breaking New Research on Global Warming”. Ahead of the upcoming COP28, renowned climate scientist, Dr. James Hansen, and his co-authors present the novel findings of his new paper Global Warming in the Pipeline.”
Briefing by UNEP Executive Director on her report to the sixth session of UN Environment Assembly | UN Environment Programme “Ms. Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), will hold a briefing for member states on her report to the sixth session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-6).”
What power dynamics could jeopardize Solar Radiation Modification governance discussions? | SRM Youth Watch “This video is an excerpt from the Solar Radiation Modification Youth Watch launch event, which took place during New York Climate Week. Prisha Kumar, a co-founder of the Institute for Climate Policy Solutions, was one of the panelists and shared her insights on how power dynamics could potentially jeopardize discussions on Solar Radiation Modification governance.”
Doug MacMartin HPAC 2 Nov 23 | Robbie Tulip “Title: Model Simulations of Climate Interventions Aiming to Offset Future Warming: Insights and UncertaintiesSpeaker: Associate Professor Douglas MacMartin, Cornell UniversityTalk Overview:Decadal-average global warming is approaching 1.2 C and it is likely that the 1.5 C goal from the Paris Agreement will be passed in the next decade or so. Global warming is now being experienced through the increasing likelihood of severe weather, more intense storms, destabilization of major glacial streams, increasing rate of rise of sea level, and more, all driven by the ongoing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. With the present and projected pace of emissions mitigation, global warming is projected to at least double before net-zero emissions are reached up to a few decades after mid-century, with corresponding increased impacts and risks. With all nations committed to the goal of keeping global warming to no more than 1.5 C and climate intervention becoming the only option for preventing further warming, modeling studies have started looking at climate intervention scenarios that would offset further warming, stabilizing the climate at 1.5C, or restoring back to 1.0C or lower. Professor MacMartin reports on the status of climate stabilization studies using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), providing an overview of what would be involved, including options such as more polar-focused deployments, what the resulting stabilized climate would be like and how long it might take to reach a desired cooling, what the key uncertainties are and how they might compare to the types of consequences that might trigger calls for intervention, and what research is needed to provide the firmer information needed for early rather than late-stage emergency intervention to be considered as a potential policy scenario.The recording includes a powerpoint presentation followed by question and answer with the audience.”
James Hansen/Michael Mann Doomer Drama Heats Up as Hansen Joins Solar Geoengineering Cheering Squad | Collapse Chronicles “In today's Chronicle of the Collapse, I wonder which Doomer team to join as James Hansen and Michael Mann cannot agree on the problem, much less the "solution" to it. Here is a link to an article in the Guardian titled, "Global heating is accelerating, warns scientist who sounded climate alarm in the 80s":https://news.yahoo.com/global-heating-accelerating-warns-scientist-040128187.html
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