A model study exploring the decision loop between unilateral stratospheric aerosol injection scenario design and Earth system simulations

[Geoengineering News]

https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.172901451.16665121/v1

Authors

Chenrui Diao,Patrick Keys,Curtis M. Bell,Elizabeth A. Barnes,James Wilson Hurrell

15 October 2024

Cite as: Chenrui Diao, Patrick Keys, Curtis M. Bell, et al. A model study exploring the decision loop between unilateral stratospheric aerosol injection scenario design and Earth system simulations. ESS Open Archive . October 15, 2024.

DOI: 10.22541/essoar.172901451.16665121/v1

Abstract

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being discussed as a possible approach to reduce future global warming in addition to emission cuts, and various scenarios and Earth system model (ESM) experiments have been developed to explore its effectiveness and risks. However, given the complicated geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations among countries, global cooperation in SAI deployment will be challenging. Alternatively, unilateral SAI deployment has been highlighted as an important research topic but is still less explored in scenario design and ESM studies. Inspired by the game theory model introduced by Bell and Keys (2023) and their newly developed framework of identifying geopolitically plausible SAI initiator(s), this paper builds a framework for integrating unilateral SAI scenario design, geopolitical game theory, ESM simulation, and climate analyses into one decision loop. Using the decision loop, we design and simulate a geopolitically plausible scenario of the initiation of unilateral SAI using CESM, and explore two independent plausible unilateral SAI reaction scenarios following the climate storylines under the initiator scenario. Our work demonstrates an approach to explore the complex feedback loop between unilateral SAI deployment scenarios and the simulation of the subsequent climate storylines.

Source: ESS OPEN ARCHIVE