Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Malaria Transmission in South Asia [Preprint]

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.authorea.com/doi/full/10.22541/au.172789532.29341092

Authors 

Athar Hussain, Muhammad Ali Khan, Muhammad Shoaib

02 October 2024

Cite as: Athar Hussain, Muhammad Ali Khan, Muhammad Shoaib. Impacts of Solar Geoengineering on Malaria Transmission in South Asia. Authorea. October 02, 2024.

DOI: 10.22541/au.172789532.29341092/v1

Abstract

Malaria is a disease that has a significant influence on public health and affects individuals all over the Global South. Global warming affects the disease’s distribution, and the Solar Geoengineering (SG) is an interim solution to combat global warming, which involves scattering back a tiny fraction of the incoming sunlight. This study explores the projected spatio-temporal patterns of malaria distribution using Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) and Length of Transmission Season (LTS) as quantitative indicators of malaria transmission under G6sulfur scenario of SG in seven of the most climate vulnerable countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Nepal, and Pakistan). Furthermore, for comparative analysis, future projections of EIR and LTS are studied without SG under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP585). The result of a dynamical malaria model indicates that, under the SG G6sulfur scenario, the spatial distribution patterns of EIR depict an overall decrease in malaria distribution during the period of 2020–2090, as compared to SSP585 scenario, over South Asia. Moreover, LTS of disease will gradually be shortened during the same time scale as in G6sulfur scenario. Regionally, spatial distribution of malaria over Bangladesh, India and Pakistan is projected to experience a significant decline. While Afghanistan, Iran, and Nepal show less drastic but still a notable decrease in EIR.

Source: Authorea