Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa—Preprint

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202503.1694

Authors

Alex Nimusiima, Godwin Ayesiga, Ronald Odongo, Catherine Mulinde, Moses Ojara, Lawrence Aribo, Bob Alex Ogwang

24 March 2025

Abstract

This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) on the rainfall and temperature patterns over the Eastern Africa region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under solar radiation modification of G6solar and G6sulfhur were evaluated against the Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP models are evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the climate patterns in the region fairly well. Secondly, the models are run under both SRM scenarios and SSP scenarios for 2051-2080. Results show that G6solar SRM scenario predict slightly increased annual precipitation in the region over SSP245 but predict reduced annual precipitation in the region over SSP585 in the same period. G6sulfur SRM scenario predict reduced annual precipitation over both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with slightly more reduced precipitation over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. For temperature, G6solar SRM scenario predict reduced annual mean temperature over both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with slightly reduced temperature over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. However, G6sulfur is shows some inconsistent results with some models such as IPSL-CM6A_LR predicting increased tem-peratures under SRM compared to SSPs especially SSP245.

Source: Preprints