Part II: Solar Geoengineering Modeling to Stop Annual Climate Change

[Geoengineering News]

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369034073_Part_II_Solar_Geoengineering_Modeling_to_Stop_Annual_Climate_Change 

Author

Alec Feinberg 

March 2023

Abstract 

Time is short for mitigating climate change. It is estimated at the current warming rate that a 1.5oC climate change may occur as early as 2039 to 2043. This is a short 16-20 years before we pass this suggested IPCC threshold and Paris accord goal where it is anticipated that further warming could cause severe climate issues. This paper extends prior modeling focusing on annual goals. Solar geoengineering (SG) solutions have three key advantages compared to the difficulty of carbon removal and reduction (CRR): they produce fast results; have a 38% improved albedo advantage compared to CRR, and it is something we all can participate in brightening the earth with cool roofs, roads, and cars. Methods detailed previously for SG space and earth area requirements have been an issue primarily because of excessive goals and overestimations. This and prior work provide the most efficient estimates. Rather than providing overwhelming SG area goals for full climate change reversals, this paper provides reflective annual area rate requirements to stop yearly climate change increases. While this is a status quo solar geoengineering (SQSG) approach, it yields area reductions that are about one-hundred times less than trying to fully mitigate climate change. It creates opportunities for future improvements both in SG and CRR. Unfortunately, SG to stop just a yearly increase in global warming is highly challenging as result show. We provide some ideas that should be helpful in earth AI drone methods, stratosphere injection methods, and reflective particle space clusters. One main issue is that policymakers and space agencies like NASA, ESP, CSP, CHSP, and companies like SpaceX need to make a SG commitment. CRR methods to date are finding great difficulties in producing mitigation results. Therefore, policymakers should realize the cost down the road of a 1.5oC temperature rise will be many factors higher than without SG.

Source: ResearchGate