Stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize Northern Hemisphere terrestrial permafrost under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 scenario

[Geoengineering News]

https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.168332196.60666116

Authors

• Ariel Lena Morrison,
• Elizabeth A. Barnes,
• James Wilson Hurrell
• 
  

05 May 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive 

05 May 2023Published in ESS Open Archive

Abstract

Permafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least two years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could stabilize after SAI deployment. Using the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulations, we show that the rate of permafrost thaw begins to stabilize under SAI, but does not fully stop, likely due to deep permafrost thaw processes that are resistant to surface temperatures changes. SAI does prevent a potential tipping point (talik formation) in almost 2 million km2 of permafrost, most of which is located in permafrost peatlands. Thus, a more aggressive SAI strategy may be required to rapidly stabilize permafrost extent.

Cite as: Ariel Lena Morrison, Elizabeth A. Barnes, James Wilson Hurrell. Stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize Northern Hemisphere terrestrial permafrost under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 scenario. ESS Open Archive . May 05, 2023.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168332196.60666116/v1

Source: ESS Open Archive