Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change

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Alan Robock ☮

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May 11, 2022, 9:39:16 AM5/11/22
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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/05/10/emission-reduction-remains-publics-preferred-approach-to-climate-change/

Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change
by Barry G. Rabe and Christopher Borick

"Americans continue to favor reducing greenhouse gas emissions as their preferred approach for staving off the worst impacts of climate change, according to new public opinion findings. The public remains considerably more skeptical of any pivot from mitigation toward climate policy that prioritizes adaptation, use of geoengineering that releases particles into the atmosphere in attempting to deter warming, or subterranean carbon storage. These findings emerge from the Winter 2022 National Surveys on Energy and Environment (NSEE). ..."
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Alan Robock

Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Department of Environmental Sciences         Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University                            E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
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SALTER Stephen

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May 11, 2022, 10:00:26 AM5/11/22
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Hi All

Americans are in love with six-shooters to their dying breath. Who made them think we are allowed only one climate solution?

Did they know how many salt particles of a wide range of sizes are already being released into the environment from breaking waves on beaches?

Stephen

 

From: geoengi...@googlegroups.com <geoengi...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Alan Robock ?
Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2022 2:39 PM
To: Geoengineering <Geoengi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [geo] Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change

 

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Michael MacCracken

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May 11, 2022, 11:32:13 AM5/11/22
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While mitigation is commendable and essential, a major problem with this view is that it is rather unlikely that emissions can be reduced rapidly enough to keep the increase in global average temperature (a very innocuous metric for the situation that will result) below 2 C, or much more realistically, given the challenges ahead, of 3 C. In either case, the result is very likely to be catastrophic consequences with respect to extreme events, sea level rise and biodiversity loss, among many other impacts.

Mike MacCracken

SALTER Stephen

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May 11, 2022, 12:30:58 PM5/11/22
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Hi All

Zero change in mean temperature change but wild extremes such at the recent Texas winter and +38 C in Siberia might indeed be undesirable.  However if I had to pick groups of people to undergo this . . .

Stephen

 

 

From: geoengi...@googlegroups.com <geoengi...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Michael MacCracken
Sent: Wednesday, May 11, 2022 4:32 PM
To: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu; Geoengineering <Geoengi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [geo] Emission reduction remains public’s preferred approach to climate change

 

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While mitigation is commendable and essential, a major problem with this view is that it is rather unlikely that emissions can be reduced rapidly enough to keep the increase in global average temperature (a very innocuous metric for the situation that will result) below 2 C, or much more realistically, given the challenges ahead, of 3 C. In either case, the result is very likely to be catastrophic consequences with respect to extreme events, sea level rise and biodiversity loss, among many other impacts.

Phil M

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May 11, 2022, 3:17:26 PM5/11/22
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Apparently they haven't been told that this will not save them...

Jessica Gurevitch

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May 11, 2022, 7:54:18 PM5/11/22
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I would be surprised if anyone on this list wouldn’t prefer emission reductions.  While we’re fantasizing, why not prefer that we got emissions to zero 50 years ago? I prefer that! But whether or not there would be an overshoot (I call it a lag effect) if we immediately stopped putting GHGs into the atmosphere….we are clearly not doing that. So it’s sort of like saying, how many people would prefer having a high income without working? Most people probably would prefer it. I’m not sure it’s the right question. 

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On May 11, 2022, at 1:17 PM, Phil M <eeia...@gmail.com> wrote:

Apparently they haven't been told that this will not save them...
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Kevin Lister

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May 12, 2022, 3:11:57 AM5/12/22
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When thinking about fantasies,  it's important to think about probabilities. 

About 10 years ago I calculated the probability of making the necessary cuts in CO2 emissions using game theory and the concept of interconnected games.  This works out at 6E-63 for any given year.

 To persist, for n years, then it is (6E-63)^n. Thus for an agreement to hold for any reasonable time,  then the probability of success is less than finding a single atom from all the atoms that make the universe. 

I am obviously delighted that the "Majority of Americans continue to favor reducing greenhouse gas emissions, " but while the world has one hot war and multiple Cold Wars ongoing there will be no cuts in emissions,  only increases. The remaining question is how much. 

The Guardian has a disturbing article today that validates this  prognosis and my 10 year old calculations, see https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2022/may/11/fossil-fuel-carbon-bombs-climate-breakdown-oil-gas?CMP=twt_gu&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium.

The brutal reality is that it is SRM or nothing.  We urgently need to understand if an SRM solution can be deployed quicker than the planet will be destroyed.  

Regards, 
Kevin

Greg Rau

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May 12, 2022, 1:41:05 PM5/12/22
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Thanks for the depressing news, Kevin. But buck up, DOE is placing a $3.5B bet (with public money) that DAC is going to save the day:  https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b9362d89d5abb8c51d474f8/t/6261d1890b76863f1047a2dd/1650577901659/Carbon180-SettingDAConTrack.pdf 
So SRM isn’t going to get all the glory. Anyway, Civilization ho?
Greg

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On May 12, 2022, at 12:11 AM, Kevin Lister <kevin.li...@gmail.com> wrote:


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