Can the Russian Communist win the 2024 elections in Russia
Sunny ambon
Yes.
If President Putin magically disappears during the next 5.5 years—which I hope he doesn’t—the Communists will likely be the front-runners for the President’s job in 2024. This would be the result of two things of very high probability
- The ruling party United Russia will immediately crumble along the national and local clan loyalties. This party has no ideology and exists solely as a political vehicle of Putin’s support among the state bureaucracy and associated wannabes.
- In the chaos of mutual vendettas between oligarchical clans, Chechens will resurface as one of the most powerful forces, with the safe home base outside the Russian law in Grozny, and the solid ethnic network and business interests across the country. A major flare-up between them and the military/FSB seems unavoidable. Radical nationalists will get a powerful cause for rallying. “Russia for Russians!” will surge as a no-brainer slogan for anyone who wants to stake the claim for the Kremlin.
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation is a populist party that hides its nationalism under Stalinist rhetorics. It also has the best local foothold among the “opposition” parties across Russia and a faithful core of nostalgic voters among senior Russians. If you are an oligarch and want to pick a winner in the coming game, the КПРФ would certainly be the first option you’ll consider.
Their Communist colors fool no one. Their last presidential candidate was a billionaire—no one found anything strange about that. And in Russia, if you nail a backing from a few key players, and are willing to pour a lot of money in them, you have a very good chance on turning around the entire game.
Below, a Communist rally in Moscow. The strong stable political base of Stalinists attracts a lot of younger outsiders with political ambitions who don’t want to venture out in the anti-Putinist domain, but hope to make good use of any crack in the wall.
