My interview with Tom Murphy. "Energy on a Finite Planet"
Hart Hagan
LET’S MEET ASTROPHYSICIST DR. THOMAS MURPHY, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Tom Murphy is the best person I know to articulate the “Limits to Growth.” As a physics professor, he is uniquely qualified to talk about energy.
He points out that if the economy grows by 2.33% per year--a conservative estimate--then the economy grows by a factor of 10 every 100 years.
After 100 years, the economy is ten times larger. After 200 years, it’s 100 times larger. After 300 years it’s 1,000 times larger, and so on.
This can only continue for so long! But our whole economic system is based on this “infinite growth on a finite planet.”
Also, note well: Economic growth correlates perfectly with the movement of energy through our economy. So we’ll be using 100 times as much energy in 200 years, and so on.
So … CAN WE TALK … about the limits to growth?
And it’s not just about energy. We also have an extinction crisis that corresponds to economic growth. Tom says that this extinction crisis is EVEN MORE important than climate change. He makes a good case for it in this interview.
Please watch this interview. And then explore Tom’s free educational material online:
Search for:
Dr. Thomas Murphy
University of California San Diego
Tom’s blog is: Do the Math
Tom’s book is entitled:
“Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet: Assessing an Adapting To Planetary Limits.” It's 450 pages and it's free online.
Robert Labaree
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Owen Allen
Thanks Hart,
And I've talked elsewhere about my response to Tom's view, so I'm going to use his view as an counter-example of how, I think, we should be honing our own critical thinking skills around human progress.
The first is, we live in the world we live in, and WE live in it. So there's a need to be brutally honest with ourselves, our complicity in everything that has come apart in regard the environment.
Second, while we are being brutally honest with ourselves, we need to really look at what we can shift, transition, REALLY, to a lower energy use, in our life.
Third, we need to truly look at what it will take to transition the billion big energy users and supportive industries to a lower energy usage.
Fourth, we need to look at what it actually takes to mitigate the billions in poverty and millions in dislocation as these are by far, likely to be the biggest source of ecological damage in the near future. And if we don't get number 3 right, the cities begin to fail with enormous flow on effect. And that means for all of us.
Fifth, If, looking at this you come to the uneasy conclusion that we are trailing a very nasty outlook, then what can we rely on, what can we really implement?
I'll give you my big solutions: These are based on the principle that everyone and everything is to be accounted for.
1. Transition human governance model to consultative and participatory democracy i.e build models of this (without a model of this in play, all other solutions will die in the ground);
2. Grow ecological restoration/conservation as integrated with community eco-agricultural models i.e templates that people can turn to when the proverbial hits the fan and people leave cities or certain districts in droves;
3. Continue to drive scientific and technological solutions in all fields in pursuit of human quality of life including environmental robustness, energy access, and proficiency. Of these advancement, from a historical perspective I expect that over time (and that time period is decreasing) science and technology will make jumps in type which can provide new energy efficiencies while upgrading quality of life. We can take the view that the past 300 years of coal and oil are the transition phase from the old-agricultural to the new-agricultural or what some call the 4th and 5th industrial revolution. We do have to hold those advancements to account. We won't be able to advance without showing up some problem with each iteration. Stopping technological advancement is not an option, unless your option is to have billions die and that leads us back to problem number 4 above. And if we are brutally honest as per number 1, I don't hear any of us putting our hand up for that early and miserable death.
4. For all the above, the political orientation is necessary but clearly human. Organise to influence the policy drivers from city, state, national and international spheres of influence. When organised, collaborate and be in conversation with other like-minded groups. Avoid tribalism, idealogy, and exile, excluding only those who are purposefully disruptive and antagonistic, obviously tyrannical or authoritarian, and then always with the possibility of them having a way back to the larger conversation. And in that we need to adhere to and develop in our own lives, characteristics of robustness in conversation, compassion, magnanimity, and the long list of human virtues, so that we are not readily antagonised and always engaged.
kindest
Phoenix Functions
Atherton
Qld 4883
Australia
+61 0423430941
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/owen59/
You ARE the Betterment of the World
On 02/01/2023 08:09, Hart Hagan wrote:
Dear EcoRestorationists,I'm happy to share with you my interview with Dr. Thomas Murphy, professor of astrophysics and University of California, San Diego. (Copied on this email.)I believe Tom's perspective is vitally important in a world where "everyone" believes in economic growth, but hardly anyone understands the biophysical limits to economic growth.Also, you would think that an astrophysicist would be enthusiastic about space travel. But although Tom has worked extensively with NASA, he recognizes that space is a harsh and dangerous environment, and we cannot justify the resources that it takes to pursue fantasies that we have learned from science fiction. For one thing, we just don't have enough energy to make it happen.Tom has mixed feelings about human "civilization." This stems from his understanding of how destructive we are.and from his love and reverence for the natural world, not least of all "the critters." In reference to our many projects, plans and proposals to power civilization with (so-called) "renewable energy" Tom asks: Will the squirrels (or the newts) be happy if this comes to pass? Will it be good for them?Lastly, what I learned from Tom is that if the economy (and the energy required to power the economy) grows at 2.33% per year, then the economy and our energy consumption grow by a factor of 10 every 100 years. In only a few centuries, this leads to absurd results. But no one is talking about this. Why?Please enjoy this interview.Below, please find my first of many social media posts stemming from this one-hour interview.
LET'S MEET ASTROPHYSICIST DR. THOMAS MURPHY, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
Tom Murphy is the best person I know to articulate the "Limits to Growth." As a physics professor, he is uniquely qualified to talk about energy.
He points out that if the economy grows by 2.33% per year--a conservative estimate--then the economy grows by a factor of 10 every 100 years.
After 100 years, the economy is ten times larger. After 200 years, it's 100 times larger. After 300 years it's 1,000 times larger, and so on.
This can only continue for so long! But our whole economic system is based on this "infinite growth on a finite planet."
Also, note well: Economic growth correlates perfectly with the movement of energy through our economy. So we'll be using 100 times as much energy in 200 years, and so on.
So ... CAN WE TALK ... about the limits to growth?
And it's not just about energy. We also have an extinction crisis that corresponds to economic growth. Tom says that this extinction crisis is EVEN MORE important than climate change. He makes a good case for it in this interview.
Please watch this interview. And then explore Tom's free educational material online:
Search for:
Dr. Thomas Murphy
University of California San Diego
Tom's blog is: Do the Math
Tom's book is entitled:
"Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet: Assessing an Adapting To Planetary Limits." It's 450 pages and it's free online.
--
Hart Hagan