The race for deep-sea minerals could cause geopolitical and ecological harm
t.wiedmann
Dear Colleagues,
Harvesting deep-sea minerals risks biodiversity loss and carbon release.
In a Correspondence to Nature, Haghani et al argue that governments and regulators should cap subsidies for large electric cars to incentivise the manufacture and purchase of smaller vehicles. Smaller cars need smaller batteries, which require less lithium, cobalt and nickel per unit.
Reference:
Haghani, M., A. Rajabifard, T. Wiedmann, and D. A. Hensher. 2025. The race for deep-sea minerals could cause geopolitical and ecological harm. Nature 646: 804. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03429-2
Prof. Tommy Wiedmann
Professor of Sustainability Science
Sustainability Assessment Program
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Tommy Wiedmann
Dear Amory,
Thank you for your response. It’s a good point (I didn’t know about the i3). Personally, I’d suggest that lighter and smaller (reasonably sized) and less cars overall would be a desirable outcome. Also, good point about the feebate approach.
I’m cc’ing this to the whole group as requested (since your email below bounced back). I also cc the other authors from the Haghani et al Correspondence as I don’t know whether they are subscribed to the group.
Kind regards,
- Tommy -
From:
Amory Lovins <am...@lallc.co>
Date: Wednesday, 29 October 2025 at 12:20
To: Thomas Wiedmann <t.wie...@unsw.edu.au>
Cc: Ecominerals - Ecological Minerals Management <ecomi...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [Ecominerals] The race for deep-sea minerals could cause geopolitical and ecological harm (please post for me if needed)
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The Nature Letter contains one error. The aim here should be not smaller vehicles but lighter and more-efficient vehicles. About two-thirds of the energy needed to move a car (its “tractive load”) is caused by its mass. Very light but strong materials can shrink the batteries, the rest of the powertrain, and the total mass by 2–3x without compromising safety or other driver attributes, as described in my 2020 SAE paper “Reframing Automotive Efficiency” at https://doi.org/10.4271/13-01-01-0004. (An advanced-composite SUV design example was described in Intl J Veh Design in 2004 at https://doi.org/10.1504/IJVD.2004.004364.)
Decoupling size from mass can be effectively encouraged by a “feebate”—fees on inefficient and rebates to efficient new vehicles—and if desired, those can be offset to make the incentive revenue-neutral; in the EU this is called a “bonus-malus” system. The obstacles are not technical or economic but cultural, as the auto industry is very good at metal-stamping and reluctant to switch to less-familiar, though superior, structural composites.
I’ve driven such a car since ~2018—the superb 1,195-kg 4-seat BMW i3, which was Germany’s most popular electric vehicle until Tesla arrived. My SAE paper describes how it shed ~300 kg at no extra cost. BMW made money on every one of the 250,000 copies sold in 2013–22, but it was regrettably discontinued by new leadership and its gifted team was dissipated. (Its leader, Ulrich Kranz, then led Apple’s car program.) There has been talk within BMW of reviving the i3; otherwise I’ve suggested giving the tooling to Ukraine to help build an oil-free car fleet as part of postwar reconstruction. (Confusingly, BMW is now applying the i3’s name to a very different 2026 model as it electrifies its 3-series.)
In short, the mineral savings Haghani et al. rightly seek can be achieved by designing cars better without making them smaller.
Amory B. Lovins 盧安武 एमोरी लविन्स
Adjunct Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering (2020–24), Lecturer (2025– in teaching terms), and Senior Precourt Scholar of Integrative Design and Energy Efficiency, Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University
Cofounder and Chairman Emeritus, RMI (founded as Rocky Mountain Institute), am...@rmi.org
President, Aspen Fly Right, aspenflyright.org
Member, Lovins Associates LLC
M +1 970.948.2280 | F +1 970.927.4178 | am...@lallc.co
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