Peter writes:
> Zach McKinstry hit .230/.331/.324 at age 22 between mostly A-ball and briefly in AA.
> Peck hit .301/.359/.433 at age 22 between mostly A-ball and briefly in AA.
>I think you're being a bit too skeptical about Peck. Not saying he's a future starter or
>anything, but he could have a McKinstry-type career path.
Well, if you're not saying Peck is a future starter than we don't have too much disagreement. That's the main thing I was objecting to.
However, I still think Peck is a long-shot to be a major league utility guy. Addressing your comments,
(1) I appreciate that you tried for an apples-to-apples age comparison, but in fact, McKinstry was 9.5 months younger than Peck in the seasons you chose.* That matters because age 22 is a last gasp for Advanced A - older than that, good performances rarely hold up.
(2) I'm sure you noticed that McKinstry hit much better *every year after* the one you posted. That's a bit unusual -- players don't typically start to hit much better after 2 full years in the minors. It was unusual for McKinstry to do it, and it will be unexpected for Peck to do it going forward.
(3) We could argue that comparing Peck to McKinstry is sort of damning with faint praise anyway. Zach hasn't been a great major league contributor. I introduced McKinstry only to say that, as things stand, he'll be the better player in 2026 and 27. If McKinstry is the comp for Peck (which, as I said, I have reservations about), and the argument goes: "If someone gives Peck parts of 6 seasons in the majors, maybe he'll manage one with a .700 OPS just like McKinstry did," ok. But not very interesting.
(4) Probably the thing that bothers me the most about Peck is that he didn't hit very well at Pepperdine. Most future big leaguers rake in college. Peck's junior (final) season at Pepperdine, he was only 6th on his own team in OPS, and below his team average. His sophomore year was better than that, but his freshman year was worse.
I guess we'll see. He's in AA now.
Michael
*For those who care about the details, most baseball sites use July 1st as the date of record, which makes players like Peck, with a birthday in July, look younger compared to players like McKinstry born in April. For a direct comparison, take April 1st of the years in question. Peck was 22 years 258 days, while McKinstry was 21 years 338 days. So Peck was 285 days older on Aprils 1st of their respective "age 22" seasons.