Skubal extension

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Roger King

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Dec 26, 2024, 12:11:49 PM12/26/24
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I was reading an article in the Free Press yesterday about how Skubal could be the first pitcher to command a $400 million+ contract if his next 2 seasons are a successful as 2024. And the subtext of the article was basically that of course he’ll test free agency. Boras is his agent. 

It just got me thinking that it really has nothing to do with the Tigers at all. What really good young player would ever just sign an extension with his current team anymore without first at least testing free agency, seeing the offers, etc.? What sports agent would advise his client to do so in this era of absolutely insane sports contracts?

So I don’t think it matters what the Tigers offer Skubal. It’s just hard to imagine he wouldn’t wait until his free agent year and see what is offered. Maybe The Tigers will match what any other club is offering at than point and he’ll decide to stay, but there’s just no way he’s making that decision before free agency I don’t think.

I think this goes for any good player moving forward. As soon as they have some success, they’re going to want to wait until free agency.

Roger King
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Michael W

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Dec 26, 2024, 12:45:40 PM12/26/24
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Personally, I think it's a mistake, and shows a young person's confusion about money and happiness.  Is there really a difference to your life between having $250M and $400M?  Yes, a little, but for someone who never has had more than a couple of million, probably that difference is largely irrelevant.  On the other hand, Skubal has, at three different times in his career, had a serious injury that cost him more than half-a-season.  That could easily happen again.  It's not hard to imagine a scenario where he is mostly injured the next two seasons. Then he'll be 30 years old and approaching free-agency more like Michael Lorenzen.  And there *is* a big difference between $15M and $250M.  There is also a plausible scenario where Skubal isn't injured, but just pitches more like 2021 than 2024.  Then he's looking at more like $50M.  Or worst case (for him, not for us), he pitches fine in 2025-26, but then is injured right at the end of 2026.  At age 30, planning to sit out most of 2027, he might be looking at "not many takers."

I'd take the money now.

Michael

Roger King

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Dec 26, 2024, 1:47:56 PM12/26/24
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Yes this is a different type of sports betting/gambling. Skubal & Boras making a bet that he can stay healthy and repeat his performance level for two more seasons. 

Certainly ego likely plays a part in all of this.  Being competitive, Skubal no doubt wants to have the largest contract for a pitcher in that moment in time and certainly Boras wants to be the one who negotiates it. And I guess there is probably a certain amount of pressure… unspoken or otherwise… From the player community/union that you keep the good times rolling by landing such a contract, knowing your worth and all of that stuff.  We know that players and agents use the contracts of other similar players as part of their negotiation so if you “settle” for something less than you could’ve gotten, you’re potentially affecting other players. I mean, that’s the argument some in the baseball world would use.

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Peter Welch

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Dec 26, 2024, 5:25:13 PM12/26/24
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I know many Tigers’ fans hate the idea, but you have to start shopping Skubal *now* while he has a low salary and his trade value is highest.  You don’t have to trade him immediately but you start asking around now to see what kind of top prospect packages you can get.  If you can’t get a premium package of prospects right now you keep asking during the upcoming season.
If you wait until 2026 to trade him it could be too late.  We don’t need another David Price or Verlander-type situation where we get a mediocre haul of prospects because teams know you’re just trying to get something before they leave.

I want more than Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt for Skubal.
 
If you lose Skubal to free agency then all you get will be a comp 1st round pick.

But I hope Skubal accepts an extension.

Peter


On Dec 26, 2024, at 1:48 PM, Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com> wrote:



Peter Welch

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Dec 26, 2024, 5:33:14 PM12/26/24
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Skubal throws max effort on every pitch and consistently throws 98-100 mph with high-rpm spin. That’s hard for the human arm to maintain without breaking down from time-to-time, even with a super strong core and legs and good bio-mechanics.  Skubal’s arm has broken down in the past and he’s had 2 major surgeries.  He’s rolling the dice if he doesn’t take an extension now.

Peter


On Dec 26, 2024, at 12:45 PM, Michael W <miw...@gmail.com> wrote:


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Jeffrey Withey

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Dec 26, 2024, 5:40:15 PM12/26/24
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If the Tigers are serious about competing in the postseason, they don’t trade away the best pitcher in the league. And especially not for prospects, no matter how good they are on paper. 

-Jeff
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, December 26, 2024 4:33:10 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Skubal extension
 

[EXTERNAL]

Peter Welch

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Dec 26, 2024, 7:55:40 PM12/26/24
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Skubal is leaving as a free agent in 2027 regardless.  No way will the Tigers be paying him $400+ million for 8+ years at age 30.  Skubal is gone in 2 years.  So the Tigers have a 2-year window to get to the World Series with Skubal unless he signs an extension, which doesn't look likely.

I'd rather trade Skubal for several good prospects, who would continue to help the Tigers be competitive in 2027 and beyond than just hope we win a WS in the final 2 years of Skubal's contract where all we'll get in return is a comp draft pick.

I'm not saying trade Skubal for the sake of trading him, but ask for the moon in terms of prospects, as well as young stars already in the majors, and see what teams are willing to offer.  I don't mean Trey Sweeney/Thayron Liranzo-types, I'm talking top prospects from systems that are loaded with top prospects, such as the Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners, or Dodgers.  If teams aren't willing to give up a bunch of top prospects/young stars for Skubal then don't worry about trading him and keep him until somebody comes calling with a fantastic offer, otherwise keep him and try to win it all.

The Tigers have a good young core with some top talent on the way, so if we trade Skubal in the next year it's not a death sentence on the team's plans for the future.  We could still make the playoffs in the next 2 years and beyond without Skubal.

But, again, I'd prefer Skubal accept an extension with the Tigers so that we don't have to worry about him leaving in 2027.

Peter

From: Jeffrey Withey <jwi...@med.wayne.edu>
Sent: Thursday, December 26, 2024 5:40 PM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>; Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Skubal extension
 

Roger King

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Dec 27, 2024, 10:45:32 AM12/27/24
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But this is the larger point that I’m talking about: this is going to be a problem with *any* young player who becomes a breakout star. I think they’re all going to hold out for free agency so this could just be the revolving door of developing young talent, hoping you win with them while still under team control but either way, lose them to free agency or trade them away as you suggest for more hot prospects, and then start the process again.

But the problem with the latter idea is every other team knows the situation too. Why would you trade for Skubal knowing he’s going to be a free agent in a year or two?  Why would you give up top-tier players I mean.  I could be wrong, but my sense is the Tigers wouldn’t get that much for him because every team knows he’s going to test free agency and try to get that $400 million contract.

I think the best bet is for the Tigers to try to win in these next two years with Skubal and let that be the sales pitch to try to keep him when he tests free agency. That he’ll either want to keep winning with the team or they will get close and he’ll want to stay with a bunch of teammates  he likes and eventually win it all. 


Paul Meloche

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Dec 27, 2024, 12:14:32 PM12/27/24
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I think you always listen if someone wants to overpay. I was in favor of dealing Skubal at the deadline this past season if we got a ridiculous offer. Nothing that I read about talks/rumors even came close so I'm glad we kept him. And I'll be happy to keep him for two more years.
 
If we're out of contention in July of the final year of his current deal then I hope we can trade him then, for obviously a much lower return. Hopefully we're not in a position to do that. :)
 
Paul

Peter Welch

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Dec 27, 2024, 1:14:55 PM12/27/24
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That's why you see teams now trying to sign their youngest up-and-coming top prospects to multi-year extensions when they are in their early 20s.  Although the Tigers probably missed the boat doing that with Riley Greene.  The time to sign Greene to a long-term deal was 2+ years ago.  I have no idea if the Tigers ever offered Greene any kind of extension back then.  It's probably too late now and Greene will test free agency in 4 years when he's 28.

Skubal wasn't a top draft pick (9th round) and didn't really blossom until he was 25 so it was unlikely the Tigers were ever going to give him a long-term deal coming up, especially given his injury history.

The modern spending environment is just not conducive anymore to a player who comes up through the system being a lifer, especially for a mid-market team like Detroit.   The big-spending teams are going to almost always have dibs on the young stars when they become free agents in their later 20s.   You either try to win in the early years of a young stars' career before he leaves or you trade him when his value is at peak, if you find a buyer willing to give you a great package in return.  This is the state of the current Tigers with Skubal.  He's gone in 2 years so you've got those 2 options.

Peter

From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Friday, December 27, 2024 10:45 AM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Skubal extension
 

David Panian

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Dec 29, 2024, 9:42:29 PM12/29/24
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Atlanta and Cleveland have both been able to extend their young stars before they reach free agency, so it can be done. However, with Skubal being advised by Scott Boras it would be surprising if he did sign an extension rather than see what he can get on the open market.

I agree with Michael that Skubal should take the Tigers' money now, given his injury history and age.

Blake Snell's contract — five years, $182 million with a team option for a sixth year and $66 million deferred — seems like a good comparison to what Skubal probably could get as a free agent now. Snell has his own history of injuries but he's also won two Cy Young Awards. He's also a little older, 32, than what Skubal will be when he's eligible to be a free agent. If I were Skubal and the Tigers this offseason offered me the same contract as Snell's, I would take it. He and his family would be financially set for life, he would get to test free agency when he's 33 or 34 and could maybe get another multi-year deal, and the Tigers would get three or four more years to try to win a title with him. Seems like both the player and the team would do well in that scenario.

The Tigers probably can afford a contract like that, too, especially with the deferred money to ease the payroll during the playing years of the deal. They should offer something similar to Greene, too.

I also think it would be easier to trade Skubal during the offseason than hoping for a bundle of top prospects during the season. That would allow the other team to send a major leaguer back to the Tigers and give the other team a chance before the season to acquire another major leaguer to replace the one they sent to the Tigers. For example — and I do not think there is any chance of this happening, it's just an example based on an available free agent — Cleveland could send Jose Ramirez and Triston McKenzie to the Tigers for Skubal and Torkelson, then Cleveland could sign Alex Bregman to play third. Tork and Carlos Santana could cover 1B/DH for the Guardians in 2025.

During the season, there's no way a contending team is trading an all-star, MVP-type away, and that's really what the Tigers should be getting for Skubal.

David


Roger King

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Dec 29, 2024, 10:24:11 PM12/29/24
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Good post David… Though just to clarify, the issue isn’t locking up the young stars *before* they become free agents. The issue is getting them to stay once they are eligible for free agency.

I’m addressing your opening line below.

“Atlanta and Cleveland have both been able to extend their young stars before they reach free agency, so it can be done.”

The Tigers did that too with Colt Keith. But as I say above, my initial post was about these young stars who are headed towards their free agency year and want to test out what other offers are out there. 

Skubal & Boras are riding high at the moment, I’m sure convinced that he can replicate his performance for the next two seasons and cash in big time. It’s a gamble.


David Panian

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Dec 29, 2024, 11:34:34 PM12/29/24
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Keith's contract and the one for the Brewers prospect were for guys who hadn't played in the majors yet. The Braves were able to extend Acuña, Riley, Albies and Harris after they had success in the majors but before they became free agents. Most of the extensions were after their first good, full season, so they were years away from free agency. Jose Ramirez also signed an extension that bought out his arbitration years, then he signed another extension a couple of years ago. None of them are Boras clients.

Skubal also has had only one good, full season and, to me, feels more like how the Braves handled their young stars than what the Tigers did with Keith.

The Braves have been able to sell their young players on staying together and building a winning franchise. I'd like the Tigers to be able to emulate Atlanta, especially now that they have a group of good, young players in Skubal, Greene, Carpenter, Keith and hopefully some of the pitchers and Tork plus the guys who are a couple of years away in the minors.

It sure looks like Skubal thinks he'll stay healthy for two more years and be able to cash in even more than he could now. I hope he can and the Tigers can take advantage of it with championship seasons. Or maybe they trade him now for some good players to keep building, then sign him as a free agent in a couple of years to form a stellar top of the rotation with Jobe.

David

Roger King

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Dec 29, 2024, 11:45:41 PM12/29/24
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All true… but all these players are under team control so it’s not like any of them were going anywhere… Or *could* go anywhere unless they were traded.  

Skubal is a Tiger for the next two years, unless he is traded.  Those Braves contracts were extended while the team still had control. Those guys weren’t going anywhere either.

All of that is smart and ends up saving the team more than a few bucks… If the player stays healthy and productive (let’s obviously hope Colt Keith falls into this category)…… 

But again, I’m talking about the point at which the player is no longer under team control… ie. free agency. Getting them to stay at that point vs exploring what other teams have to offer.  


Peter Welch

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Dec 30, 2024, 8:19:06 PM12/30/24
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I can see the Tigers eventually signing Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark to extensions like they did with Colt Keith.   They are the Tigers' top 2 position player prospects and they play key defensive positions (SS and CF), and they are only 19 going on 20.   I found it a bit surprising that they gave Keith an extension but not Riley Greene because Greene was a better prospect and only 21 when he first got called up, but perhaps Greene and his agent showed no interest in an extension.   I'm glad we never gave Tork an extension.  If Jobe pitches well in 2025 it will be interesting to see if they offer him an extension.

Peter

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Sunday, December 29, 2024 11:45 PM
To: David Panian <dpa...@gmail.com>
Cc: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Skubal extension
 

Peter Welch

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Dec 30, 2024, 8:25:12 PM12/30/24
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Still surprised the Tigers never gave Greene an extension 2 years ago.  It would have been a logical move.  
Did they have doubts about him, or did he and his agent rebuff them?
(I can see why the Tigers didn't sign Tork to an extension.  His minor league hitting wasn't that good and he looked like a future DH because his defense at 3B and 1B sucked).

Peter
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of David Panian <dpa...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, December 29, 2024 11:34 PM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Skubal extension
 

Roger King

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Dec 30, 2024, 10:19:24 PM12/30/24
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This is the reverse of the gamble Skubal/Boras are taking.  Where it’s the team hoping/praying the player stays healthy and performs at a level that justifies signing them long-term out of the gate.  

I feel like Greene & Tork arrived just before these kinds of deals became a thing. But I could be wrong.  

And of course, any given team is not going to have more than a couple of Colt Keith-like contracts.  You would only give a deal like that to a player who is one of the top ranked prospects in MLB. And I don’t think any of them would go to pitchers, given how fragile their arms tend to be. 

David Panian

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Dec 30, 2024, 10:43:00 PM12/30/24
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Maybe Greene has been taking a wait-and-see attitude to see if the Tigers will improve? Can't blame him — or Skubal — if they wanted to see if the team appeared to be headed in a winning direction or if they were going to be like some of the lower-payroll teams that seem to have some good prospects but never bother to get better than that.

And given Greene's injury history, you can't blame the Tigers for wanting to see if he can play 150 games in a season before they sign him into his 30s.

David


Michael W

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Dec 31, 2024, 4:19:18 PM12/31/24
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I think the question of trading Skubal immediately is an interesting one, and it's clearly the kind of crucial decision that the management gets paid to figure out.  

It's always problematic to talk about trading a player in the abstract, because it depends completely on what you get in return.  We all agree the Tigers shouldn't settle or dump Skubal.  I hope we all agree that we *should* trade him for the AL all-star lineup, were it offered.  So given that important caveat, these are the things the management has to think through:

1) Skubal was, hands down, the best pitcher in the AL last year, and arguably the league MVP.  At his age, with two years of team control, he has a very, very high trade value.  A team that's ready to contend right now could plug him in and increase their chance to win a championship significantly.  
2) I do think there's a bit of a "hot potato" scenario with Skubal. With three major injuries already, at some point in his career somebody is going to get stuck with an injured player and a fat contract.  Of course all the other teams know this, so the question is about who is willing to take the risk knowing the huge upside.
3) There is some risk that Skubal can't repeat his 2024 performance, even if healthy.  He wouldn't be the first player to peak at age 27, although that's less common among pitchers.
4) In 2024 Skubal was fantastic, and we still only won 86 games.  Should we be that we'll be substantially better in 2025-26?  Or maybe he'll be our all-star rep a few times and then move on?

I agree with Peter we should be asking around and seeing what teams want.  Roger's concern that other teams don't want to trade for only two years, I don't see.  A big market team could make a good enough long-term offer, and any team could benefit from those two years - just like the Tigers can.  But either way, you can't know for sure unless you ask.

I hope our leadership can navigate this skillfully, because this is one of the high leverage things that will determine the Tigers' success in the next 5 years.

Michael

Roger King

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Jan 3, 2025, 11:05:31 PM1/3/25
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“A team that's ready to contend right now could plug him in and increase their chance to win a championship significantly.”

You mean like that team that won the wild card series and came 7 outs away from the American League championship? :-)

The Tigers *are* that team!  Losing Skubal seriously decreases the chances they make the postseason in 2025.  

I didn’t think the Tigers should trade Skubal at the deadline last year either but at least that talk made some sense because it didn’t appear the Tigers were going anywhere. But now coming off a season where their young talent from a fairly long rebuild finally gelled enough to not only make the playoffs for the first time in a decade but get close to the championship series, why would you set your team back like that? 

The Tigers are the youngest team in baseball and again, came really close to making the ALCS. They need to try to do what virtually any team in that situation does: add some key parts to take the team to the next level. Not trade away elite players in the hopes of getting a package so they can start rebuilding all over again.

They’ve got Skubal for 2 more years.  You have to go for it now. Let’s see what happens.

Michael W

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Jan 9, 2025, 5:04:50 PM1/9/25
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>“A team that's ready to contend right now could plug him in and increase their chance to win a championship significantly.”
>You mean like that team that won the wild card series and came 7 outs away from the American League championship? :-)

No because the Tigers did that with Skubal.  "Plugging in" Skubal just keeps them even, it doesn't make them better than they were in 2024.

Michael
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