50-2

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Peter Welch

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Jul 7, 2025, 10:52:37 PM7/7/25
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The Tigers are 50-2 this season when leading after 6 innings.  

Peter

Paul Meloche

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Jul 8, 2025, 1:30:57 AM7/8/25
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And 8-32 when tied or trailing after 6…? Teams are going to have poor records in that scenario but I assumed the best team in baseball with a reputation for comebacks might be a little better than one for five in those games. 

Not a gripe - just an observation. 

Also, the 50-2 mark makes it appear maybe we don’t need bullpen arms. 🤣

Paul M.

On Jul 7, 2025, at 7:52 PM, Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com> wrote:


The Tigers are 50-2 this season when leading after 6 innings.  

Peter

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Michael W

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Jul 8, 2025, 10:44:12 AM7/8/25
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> Also, the 50-2 mark makes it appear maybe we don’t need bullpen arms. 🤣

Yah, the Tigers have the fewest bullpen losses this year (11), and are tied for 4th fewest blown saves.   The Tigers have 10 blown saves, same as the Dodgers, Yankees and Cubs.  No team has fewer than 8.

They are only 11th in bullpen ERA however, and 15th in FIP, so they've probably been exacerbating deficits more than some of those other teams.

It's probably worth noting that the worst bullpen ERAs are from Maeda, Brebbia and Breiske, who are no longer with the team.   They pitched 47.1 relief innings and allowed 46 runs (39 earned) for an aggregate ERA of 7.41.  The bullpen stats would look better without them.  I suppose most teams have a few guys like that, though.

Michael

Roger King

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Jul 8, 2025, 11:06:35 AM7/8/25
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Going on impression/memory, I feel like a decent percentage of the Tigers losses have NOT been in close games.  Remembering how they have (or had) that stretch of Saturday losses and I feel like a lot of them were just games the team wasn't really in.

Just glancing at June for example, some scores in games the Tigers lost:
June 3 - 8-1
June 7-  6-1
June 11 - 10-1
June 14 - 11-1
June 15 - 8-4
June 20 - 14-8
June 21 - 8-3

That's almost all their losses for the entire month.  So while the Tigers don't lose that often, when they do, they *really* lose :--)

Not sure what to take from that but it definitely explains Paul's stat about what happens when they're trailing after 6.


Peter Welch

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Jul 8, 2025, 11:24:12 AM7/8/25
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As Paul mentioned, the 50-2 record after 6 innings hides some bullpen flaws.  The middle/long relievers and openers have had some bad outings, but that's often been before the 6th inning.  When we lose, it's often been a blowout.

The good news is that a couple of the middle relievers, Holton and Hurter, seem to be pitching better in the past week.

Peter
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 8, 2025 11:00 AM
To: Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: 50-2
 

Paul Meloche

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Jul 8, 2025, 4:16:22 PM7/8/25
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I assumed when we're ahead after six, it's guys like Vest, Kahnle, and Lee that come in (or on rare occasions a starter goes more than six and continues to pitch well for another inning) and they've all been very good.
 
When we're behind, unless it's only one or two runs, Hinch seems to go to the dregs of the pen and those guys tend to let in even more runs, which would feed into the when-we-lose-it's-a-blowout observation.

Roger King

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Jul 12, 2025, 9:58:40 PM7/12/25
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Well add in the last 2 days to the list below as the Tigers lose to Seattle by scores of 15-7 and 12-3. 

Still not sure if it matters that when the Tigers lose, it is rarely by just a couple of runs… But certainly it would seem the team definitely needs to get some bullpen arms at the trade deadline, at the minimum.

All Star break obviously coming at the right time for this team, as Peter indicated.

Peter Welch

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Jul 13, 2025, 11:37:43 AM7/13/25
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Not a go​od sign that Lee and Kahnle are getting blown up lately.  That leaves Vest as our only reliable late-inning reliever.

Holton has been better lately (although he allowed a run on Friday, he had allowed 0 runs in his previous 7 appearances), but I'm not sure we want this year's version of Holton to be pitching in high-leverage situations.

Hanifee and Hurter aren't as consistent as they were last year.
I don't know why Carlos Hernandez is on the roster.  He reminds me more of somebody who would have been in the Tigers' bullpen in 2003.

The bullpen magic of last year isn't working.  By the way, I wouldn't count on Alex Lange coming to the rescue.  Lange felt a twinge in his lat muscle the other day with Toledo and has been shut down for now.  He's been trying to rehab from lat muscle surgery.

Pressure is on Harris to trade for a couple of relievers.  The problem is that other teams know the Tigers are looking for a shutdown reliever and will be asking for one of the Tigers' Big 3 prospects in return.  I'm not sure why Harris didn't sign a hard-throwing reliever in the offseason.  I guess he thought the returning bullpen plus Kahnle was going to be enough.

Peter
Sent: Saturday, July 12, 2025 9:58 PM

To: Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: 50-2

Peter Welch

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Jul 13, 2025, 11:40:10 AM7/13/25
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The Tigers' bullpen stats had been decent until recently and obviously the Tigers have an excellent record overall, but I don't think anyone of us is confident in the current bullpen configuration for the playoffs.

Peter

From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:37 AM
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Subject: Re: 50-2
 

Roger King

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Jul 13, 2025, 11:52:26 AM7/13/25
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Harris, of course did sign Kahnle and Brebbia in the off-season. And I assume he was counting on Foley to be a reliable reliever again. Not sure what they thought the trajectory of Lange was but they also assumed Brieske would be effective again as well. 

Of course it’s too bad they wasted a roster spot on Maeda for the first month of the season instead of cutting him loose during or even before spring training and finding another arm for that place on the roster. 

But this is really the nature of bullpens. Almost anyone who makes the pen roster can come out of nowhere and have a good season, especially if they throw hard… But they can also suddenly lose it or just be not quite as effective from season to season.

Kahnle is probably the one I worry about the most because as we’ve discussed, he basically just throws the changeup 80%+ of the time. I’m just skeptical that can keep working all season.


Peter Welch

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Jul 13, 2025, 11:53:31 AM7/13/25
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I guess you could see Montero and SGL move to bullpen roles later in the season, but neither of them look like they could be "swing and miss" high-leverage relievers.  There is talk that they might call up Troy Melton to pitch in the bullpen, but he would be a raw rookie.  I doubt he'd be pitching in high-leverage situations, although they used Jobe in high-leverage situations last year after they called him at the very end of the season for the playoffs, but Melton isn't Jobe's level as a prospect.

By the way, Beau Brieske, who was a key part of the bullpen in the 2nd half last year, has had a lost season and is now on the IL with Toledo (I don't know what the injury is).  Brieske was a big disappointment this year.

Peter

Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:40 AM

Peter Welch

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Jul 13, 2025, 11:58:19 AM7/13/25
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Yep, bullpens are volatile, although the Tigers' lack of "swing and miss" relievers was always a risky proposition.  They got away with it last year.

Brebbia was so forgettable, I forgot he was signed as well for this year's bullpen.
I suppose they didn't see the Foley injury coming, although they had given up on Foley in the playoffs last year anyway.  I think they didn't have a lot of confidence in Foley and that was one reason they signed Kahnle and Brebbia.

While I'm relatively happy with what Harris is doing, I'm a bit skeptical about Harris's judgment in pitchers. 


Peter
From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2025 11:52 AM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>

Roger King

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Jul 13, 2025, 6:49:59 PM7/13/25
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Kahnle’s last 7 games:
3.1 IP’s, 12 hits, 12 runs, 32.40 ERA

In his last 15 appearances, he has given up 15 runs.

Even in his last 30 appearances, 26 hits + 12 walks in 27 innings and 18 runs allowed.

I don’t think he’s fooling hitters much anymore on that change up!  

He’ll be 36 next month.  Probably an understatement to suggest the Tigers should not be relying on him as a key part of the bullpen down the stretch. In fact, they should be looking to replace him at the trade deadline. 


Cal Lord

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Jul 13, 2025, 7:20:42 PM7/13/25
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He has had 4 bad games this year. Three of them since July 3. 7 of those runs came in the last two days. Maybe he just has a tired arm. 

Cal

Paul Meloche

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Jul 13, 2025, 8:12:37 PM7/13/25
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I think this is a fair point. Kahnle can likely be part of a good pen, but perhaps shouldn’t be consistently relied on to be an 8th/9th inning guy. 

Like someone mentioned earlier, the pitching from the Tigers was soooo bad this series one wonders if they were tipping. Or if the Mariners were stealing signs. It wasn’t just a handful of guys who struggled; Jake Rogers was literally our best pitcher. I guess Flaherty was decent too. 


Paul M.

On Jul 13, 2025, at 4:20 PM, Cal Lord <calst...@gmail.com> wrote:



Jeffrey Withey

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Jul 13, 2025, 8:15:47 PM7/13/25
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When his changeup isn’t moving it just hangs over the plate and becomes batting practice. Lately it hasn’t been moving. I don’t understand why he won’t throw more fastballs currently because he has a good one. If you only throw one pitch it has to be outstanding or else you will get killed. 

Jeff



From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Cal Lord <calst...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2025 7:20:28 PM
To: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Cc: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>; Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Kahnle (was: 50-2)
 

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Peter Welch

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Jul 13, 2025, 8:21:52 PM7/13/25
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The amount of home runs the Mariners were hitting indicate they knew what was coming often in this series, or they just guessed right a lot.  They had the Tigers' pitchers scouted well.  Even Flaherty, who pitched better than Skubal and Mize, gave up 2 homers.  Fortunately they were solo shots.
The Tigers were actually lucky today's score wasn't something like 12-4 because the M's hit 5 solo homers.  If a couple of those were 3-run shots it would have been a total blowout again.

Peter
From: Paul Meloche <meloc...@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2025 8:12 PM
To: Cal Lord <calst...@gmail.com>
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Subject: Re: Kahnle (was: 50-2)

Roger King

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Jul 18, 2025, 10:34:48 PM7/18/25
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0-0 tie until the 8th when Kahnle comes on and gives up 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk. Picking up right where we left off from before the break! Sigh. 

2-0 going into the 9th. Was really hoping they’d start the post All-Star break on a good note but looks like they’re headed to their 5th loss in a row.  


Roger King

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Jul 18, 2025, 10:40:36 PM7/18/25
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Picking up where *he* left off. 

But obviously an anemic effort from the offense.   2-0 final. 

Peter Welch

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Jul 18, 2025, 11:19:41 PM7/18/25
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Hinch pinch hit Rogers for Keith in the 9th and struck out on 4 pitches.  I know it was against a lefty but really?  I'd rather take my chances with Keith than Rogers.  They're turning Keith into another Carpenter by not letting him play against lefties.

Hate to say it, but Riley Greene is awful right now.  He's striking out almost 50% of the time in July.  He had a couple of hittable pitches tonight and did nothing with them.  He's swinging and missing or topping the ball.  He's just a very streaky hitter.  You have to live with it.

We're missing Carpenter in the lineup now.  

Kahnle is a mess.  He lost command of his change-up and teams are jumping all over him. I wonder if his hand or arm is bothering him? I remember he had a visit from the trainer while on the mound a couple of weeks ago.  

Peter
From: Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Friday, July 18, 2025 10:34 PM
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Jeffrey Withey

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Jul 18, 2025, 11:51:06 PM7/18/25
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The baffling thing to me is his stubbornness. Yeah, when his change is working it is tough to hit. Lately it isn’t. But he still isn’t trying to make it stronger by mixing in more fastballs.  

jeff

Sent: Friday, July 18, 2025 11:19:35 PM
To: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: Re: Kahnle (was: 50-2)
 

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Peter Welch

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Jul 19, 2025, 2:54:18 PM7/19/25
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Kahnle has always been kind of streaky.  He's like a Riley Greene.  When he's on, he's great, when's off, he's awful.
I think it all depends on how much command he has of locating his change-up.  When you're throwing the same pitch 80+% of the time you better have command and pinpoint location of it.

Peter
From: Jeffrey Withey <jwi...@med.wayne.edu>
Sent: Friday, July 18, 2025 11:49 PM
To: Peter Welch <pw...@hotmail.com>; detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com>

Roger King

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Aug 13, 2025, 12:45:46 AM8/13/25
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Revisiting this thread. Below on July 13, I wrote:

He’ll be 36 next month.  Probably an understatement to suggest the Tigers should not be relying on him as a key part of the bullpen down the stretch. In fact, they should be looking to replace him at the trade deadline. 
At that time, in his last 30 appearances, he had given up 26 hits + 12 walks in 27 innings and 18 runs allowed.

A month later, after allowing 2 runs in 1 1/13 innings tonight, Kahnle’s last 30 games:
30 hits and 24 earned runs in 27 innings. ERA of 8.00. 

Nothing is improving, to say the least. I think they need to let him go.

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