BABIP Warning

5 views
Skip to first unread message

Michael W

unread,
May 22, 2025, 1:02:54 PM5/22/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list

Tigers' hitters are scoring high for BABIP, indicating a bit of luck on our part.

Among 117 AL players with at least 120 PA, 
Dingler is 4th, at .387
McKinstry is 5th at .382
Greene is 8th at .359
Baez is 22nd at .333

The median for the 117 players is .289

On the other end, none of the Tigers are in the bottom 35 - nobody extremely unlucky.  The lower ones are:
Torkelson 77th at .267
Keith 81st at .261

Jung had only .167 in his limited playing time.

Interestingly, the second worst BABIP in the league is actually Mike Trout, at .159.  Tough to pad your career stats that way!

Michael

Roger King

unread,
May 22, 2025, 1:13:56 PM5/22/25
to Michael W, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Well we know Dingler was putting *everything* in play the first month and a half because he didn't have a single walk!  

Are there any other hitters like Greene with good track records among the Top 20?  

I imagine McKinstry will come down to earth a bit but Keith is likely to improve so it may balance out.



--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Detroit Tigers e-mail list" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to detroit-tiger...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/detroit-tigers/81eade6e-1b04-4c46-8370-62d0b8942538n%40googlegroups.com.

Glenn Codere

unread,
May 22, 2025, 1:57:11 PM5/22/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Greene is right at his career avg for BABIP.

2022: .354
2023: .384
2024: .329
2025: .359
career: .354

McKinstry is nearly 100 points above his (.287), Baez a little above (.314).

Historically, Riley seems to do very well when he makes contact.

=======================

Peter Welch

unread,
May 22, 2025, 1:57:35 PM5/22/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Lower BABIP does involve some bad luck, but also the type of balls you are hitting and how hard you're hitting the ball.

Jung actually was pretty much league average in average exit velocity (88.5 mph) and hard hit% (40%).  It's not like he was hitting the ball weakly.
The big problem for Jung is he was hitting too many groundballs and not putting a lot of balls in the air.  His groundball % was 50% (MLB average 41.9%) and flyball % was 13.3% (MLB average 26.4%).  Jung had a 50% groundball% last year as well.  He just seems to be unable to elevate the ball against major league pitchers.  He hits a fair number of homers and extra-base hits against minor leaguers.  

Tork always seems to have bad luck with BABIP.  He hits the ball hard and in the air so that's not the problem.  He just hits the ball hard at too many fielders or to the wrong part of the ballpark.  Tork often seems to have a deep flyout that would be a homer in a lot of other ballparks.  In the games I've been following this year Tork has hit a lot of screamers that were caught.  If he ever gets some better BABIP luck or plays in a homer-friendly ballpark he could have a monster season.

Keith's lower BABIP is also a function of him being a bit below average in exit velocity and hard hit % and an above-average groundball %.
Keith needs to hit the ball a bit harder and in the air more consistently.

McKinstry seems like the guy whose luck is going to run out because his exit velocity, hard hit% numbers are a bit below average.  What's helped McKinstry is that his line drive% is way up this year.  I keep expecting McKinstry to regress, but he's still hitting well and drawing an above-average number of walks.

Baez's flyball% and line drive% are up this year.  His hard hit% is also up.  Explains a lot.

Dingler keeps hitting the ball hard with above-average exit velocity and above-average hard hit% and he hits a lot of line drives and flyballs. Because Dingler still has 37 Ks and only 2 walks, I keep expecting him to tumble, but he's kept his OPS at .750+ for most of the season.  Long may it last.


Peter


From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Roger King <pnag...@pnagency.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2025 1:13 PM
To: Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Cc: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: BABIP Warning
 

Peter Welch

unread,
May 22, 2025, 1:58:31 PM5/22/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Greene hits the ball very hard.  Sometimes he chops grounders too much, but if he elevates the ball it's often going a long way with a lot of velocity.

Peter
From: 'Glenn Codere' via Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2025 1:57 PM
To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: BABIP Warning
 

Roger King

unread,
May 22, 2025, 2:15:59 PM5/22/25
to Peter Welch, Detroit Tigers e-mail list
It's not only that uppercut swing that looks unusual but I am often amazed at how hard Greene hits the ball when it doesn't look like it as he swings.  As an example, his opposite field home run here in Toronto on Friday didn't even look like it would get to the warning track off the bat but it easily carried over the fence in the end.

I was about to just send the above and then I thought... I'll find video of the home run to show them what I'm talking about.  And sure enough at the end of this clip Dan Petry specifically talks about the uppercut swing and how hard he hit it...and Jason B finishes with "That dude is always a little stronger than you think".  Perfect example to pick!



Michael W

unread,
Nov 18, 2025, 4:53:27 PM11/18/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
Just revisiting this post.  Seems to have been right on the mark regarding Greene, Baez and McKinstry.  Dingler was able to improve in the second half though.

Michael

Peter Welch

unread,
Nov 18, 2025, 5:23:47 PM11/18/25
to Detroit Tigers e-mail list
In the 2nd half, Greene often hit a homer when he put the ball in play but he didn't put the ball in play that often. ;-)

Peter
From: detroit...@googlegroups.com <detroit...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Michael W <miw...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 18, 2025 4:53 PM

To: Detroit Tigers e-mail list <detroit...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: BABIP Warning
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Detroit Tigers e-mail list" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to detroit-tiger...@googlegroups.com.
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages