Luck or Sheer Skill?

[Eric Dinkel]

Hi Fellow Birders,

I don't often post, but I have been contemplating luck in birding all week.

See, earlier in the week Norm Erthal (who I have only met once and I know to be a very good birder), had two Denver county record birds on one list!  It has left me endlessly pondering: what role does luck versus just plain old skill play here? 

On the skill side, I know I miss birds often. For example, a few years ago, I heard and recorded a sedge wren in Denver and just stood there scratching my head wondering why this "marsh wren" sounded funny. It didn't occur to me that I was actually hearing a sedge wren until Chris Wood posted one in the exact same spot the next day. I then reviewed my audio and realized my mistake. 

But on the luck side, I believe that this is Norm's 5th county record! Congratulations on the exceptional feat in a well birded county.  What makes me wonder about the luck here is that no other birders had the good fortune of also finding any of those birds, even if they were there minutes later.  Take the RTHU and PABU that Norm found this week. Some of Denver's best birders were on the scene very fast (maybe within the hour) and no luck all around. 

So, I am curious, do people have luck rituals like some professional athletes? This is especially true in golf where players are known to pick golf balls ritualistically, etc. I am a scientist at heart, but hey, I am willing to put a rabbit's foot in my pocket to find a Painted Bunting!! 

Sincerely, 

Eric Dinkel

Denver County

[chob...@gmail.com]

Fun question which should generate a lot of opinions!  Personally, I think skill gives you the tools to find your own luck.

 

Chris Hobbs

chob...@gmail.com

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[Mary Kay Waddington]

I have to admit to enjoying watching the ebird yard lists for Colorado every month.  And I've thought a lot about why certain people are usually near the top of the list.  To me, the most important thing is location.  If your yard is a 200 acre ranch on the Southern border of Colorado you're going to see more species than someone who lives in an apartment in downtown Denver.  Second, Amount of time spent birding.  Someone who goes out 4 times a day to survey their property will see lots more species than the once-a-weekers.  Third, Skill.  That tiny glimpse of an uncommon bird, or a call -- the skilled birder has those identified in an instant.  The rest of us will miss quite a few.  And then pure dumb Luck is fourth on my list.  But remember that Luck is comprised of location, amount of time, and skill.  So if you want to see those lucky birds, go to great places, spend a lot of time doing it, hone your skills -- then that little bit of luck may find you.

Mary Kay Waddington

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[Mark Obmascik]

In the Dark Ages before eBird or Merlin even existed -- last century! -- birders used to talk about the Patagonia Picnic Table Effect. 

That was when one skilled birder found a good bird at a southern AZ road pulloff with a picnic table. When other skilled birders converged to see the good bird, they found other rare species in the same place. 

Magic or coincidence? 

Turns out the other visiting birders had the wisdom and experience to ID new species that others hadn't considered might be living there. 

If you follow Norm and other primo birders, you just might see the Patagonia Picnic Table Effect in CO.

Good birding 

Mark Obmascik 

Denver, CO

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[Buzz]

Let’s hope so!

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Buzz Schaumberg 

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[DAVID A LEATHERMAN]

Interesting topic.

Many things contribute to the finding of rare birds and I would contend those birders who consistently find them are no luckier than anybody else.  What they do have going for them are a combination of the following and probably a few things I've not considered:

They are outside with their senses in the "ON" position, a lot.

They visit places that historically, or by their habitat elements, have been or have the potential to be productive.

They bird based on both experience and familiarity with the available, current intel.  

They study field marks ahead of going to the field.  This involves books, on-line resources and even museums.

They count every bird, which requires them to ID every individual, including the Waldo tufted duck in the middle of 200 scaup, the bronzed cowbird amid the avian mob at the feed lot.

They are hooked on the endorphin that comes with discovery.  Finding a "first whatever" is a physiologically euphoric and addicting experience, much more so than Merlin telling you there might be one. 

 

Lastly, I have wondered if those who regularly find rarities scan their surroundings differently than most birders.  I'd like to put "Go Pro" recorders on 25 top birders, send them into the same piece of habitat and analyze their search patterns.  I suspect there is a combination of not only which habitat elements are looked at but the order in which they are checked matters.  As my eyesight deteriorates, I find myself primarily "scanning" habitats with my still functional ears.  I tend to consider silent birds as "not playing fair".  No doubt looking, in a systematic way, AND listening is best. 

Dave Leatherman

Fort Collins

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From: 'Mark Obmascik' via Colorado Birds <cob...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Saturday, September 20, 2025 9:45 AM
To: waddin...@gmail.com <waddin...@gmail.com>; chob...@gmail.com <chob...@gmail.com>
Cc: Eric Dinkel <endi...@gmail.com>; cob...@googlegroups.com <cob...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [cobirds] Luck or Sheer Skill?

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[Buzz]

Yes, I agree.

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Buzz Schaumberg 

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[Cathy Sheeter]

Having the good fortune to spend a season intently birding with a birder who seemed to have the Midas touch of finding rarities and state records (Steve Mlodinow), I would add the following qualities as traits that increase the odds for these birders. Hopefully Steve won’t mind my analysis ☺️

1. They are good ear birders. Often the presence of something unexpected is hearing a call or even a chip note that is unfamiliar or out of place. More than once, Steve recognized the vocalizations of birds he knew were rare in Colorado and we would then go visually find them. We were able to track down some good rarities based on his keen ears and knowledge of bird vocalizations.

2. They dedicate a significant amount of time to birding. As mentioned, someone spending an hour a week has a much lower chance of finding rarities than someone dedicating 20+ hours a week, or even more. Time = better results, without a doubt!

3. They bird a variety of habitats and locations, including many off the beaten path. While popular places, of course, often turn up results, the small pond or thicket of willows, the cemetery, and the dump also turn up rarities.

4. They pay attention to migration patterns and how weather and time of day affect birds. They are out early and late, out after a storm, watch wind directions, know when different species are on the move, etc.

5) They study nuances and really look at each bird. They don’t assume the flock of dark Ibis are all White-faced, but carefully study every bird for subtle traits that might help pull out a Glossy. They don’t assume the yellowish bellied flycatcher is a Western, but carefully study if it could be a Yellow-bellied.

6) They have decent equipment and will take time to use it. Steve always had both a scope and binoculars, and usually a camera with him in his car, and didn’t mind hiking with his scope if he thought it would be needed, and would easily spend 20-30 minutes scanning and counting a reservoir bird by bird. Careful and methodical birding likely turns up more rarities than casual or rushed birding.

7) Steve is an amazing “pisher”. I can pish and get a couple song sparrows to pop up. He would do it and sometimes have thirty birds appear in moments. Juncos, chickadees, nuthatches, kinglets, towhees, thrushes, woodpeckers, warblers and more! He pishes regularly as he is walking and stops often to scan. Some may find it annoying, but it worked.
Of course some aspect of luck is involved, but I would say it is maybe 10% luck and 90% effort and all the other things people have mentioned.

Fun discussion topic!

Cathy Sheeter
Arapahoe County

[Norm Erthal]

First I appreciate the compliments. I was so surprised to see the bunting. I saw a flash of red low in the willows. In Colorado, this always gets ones attention. It stopped right in front of me for no more than 30 seconds. The combination of red and blue was shocking. It then moved away still buried deep in the willows. I was really hoping others would get to see this wonder. Cathy is completely right in that one should look at every bird even though it can be frustrating. I admit that I can be guilty of this at times. Her other comments are spot on. There is no doubt luck plays a part. We have all walked by good birds that just don't ahow themselves that others are able to spot. Joe Roller quouted Louis Pasteur when I found a Hooded Oriole years ago west of Cortez. "Fortune favors the prepared mind." As David said there are so many factors. The more time in the field and gaining experience is invaluable. One other comment I will make is for those who "bird" with only or primarily a camera are not easily able to obtain the experience and skill one gets by following a bird as it moves. When there is a large group of birds in a tree that are moving quickly, you are not able to get on and see very many birds in a mixed flock or even study field marks. This would be especially true for fall warblers The time spent trying to get  a killer photo drastically reduces the chances of finding other species. Another thing is don't trust Merlin when it identifies a species by sound. Look for and SEE the bird. Merlin is a great tool but the creators readily admit it is nowhere near infallible. A person on a trip with me to Australia 20 years ago readily admitted he missed many species because he spent most of the time photographing.

Good birding

Norm Erthal

Arvada

[Diane Roberts]

Hello All,

One key component missing besides,  talent with sight & sound, experience, & luck, are relationships. Many birders have apps,  like What’s App, Ebird Alerts, & Discord. Also, friend groups that immediately text their friends. These are invaluable if you want to be at the top! 

Cheers,

Diane Roberts

Highlands Ranch 

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On Sep 20, 2025, at 12:28 PM, 'Buzz' via Colorado Birds <cob...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

 Yes, I agree.

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[Buzz]

Love it. Thank you. Real encouragement.

Sent from the all new Aol app for iOS

Buzz Schaumberg 

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[Tony Leukering]

All:

I agree with every point Cathy made, but I'll amplify her point... about waterbirds, particularly.

On many occasions, I've observed other birders faced with a largish mass of ducks (>100), scan through quickly, take a guess as to the size of the flock, then apportion that number among the four or five species they identified... but missing the female Northern Pintail and the two alternate-plumaged male Green-winged Teal. These observers "saw" all the birds present, but they didn't IDENTIFY all the birds present.

Unless such flocks are massive, I count every bird of every species present for two reasons. The first is obvious: Getting accurate data into eBird. The second, and at times, the more important reason, is to force myself to look at and IDENTIFY every bird present. I have found unusual, rare, and very rare species on many occasions using this technique, but, more importantly, I frequently find the one or two individuals of other expected species overlooked by others.

The same technique is useful (but often frustrating due to the frequent movement of individuals or many birds) with sparrow flocks and other mixed-species aggregations of birds. Look through the early-spring Savannah Sparrow flocks and find a Vesper Sparrow. Sort through the large, mobile flocks of winter Lapland Longspurs to find the one or two Chestnut-collared or Thick-billed longspurs. One time (with Jason Beason), watching for migrating raptors in September slightly above treeline in San Juan County, just south of Ouray County, we had a long line of Steller's Jays flying south (uphill) toward and past us. I counted them... and found a Western Scrub-Jay as the tail-end-Charlie.

My take-home message: Look at and actually identify every bird you can get your eyeballs or bins on.

Tony Leukering

Denver

On Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 1:35:28 PM UTC-6 Cathy Sheeter wrote:

[Susanna Donato]

Just wanted to say that as a newer birder with limited time to bird, I appreciate this fascinating discussion. I can only speak to the luck, as I've had Merlin sometimes identify something I can't find/ID with any confidence and would never dare claim with my growing but very limited skill + knowledge base. It's a cruel irony that many of us will hopefully have more time to bird when we retire, just as our eyes and ears launch a real deterioration campaign! Thanks for sharing your insights, and here's to good optics!

Susanna Donato

Denver