That is a good question. But what needs to be considered also is that weather depicts where these songbirds migrate. Last week there was storms in the eastern Midwest and here in the Western Plains/Colorado area. As I said when you look at Birdcast last week the whole central plains was lit up. The birds that particular night migrated from Texas boot to North Dakota and onto Canada. The best way to assess bird numbers is to have a network of research stations in the different regions of the U.S. and compare what is being observed. I am not going to deny that bird populations are declining. However, we must realize that these birds are fluid and go where the wind takes them. Unless they are breeding species, they may not stop over where they normally do in a certain year/season if weather is pushing them elsewhere.
An Example is that at another banding station I have worked for many decades, we would get hundreds of Swainson's Thrushes each spring. One spring we did not capture/band maybe 50 % of our average Swainson's Thrushes. But after reaching out to other research/banding stations, we found out that the birds had just migrated a little farther east that year. That was a crazy spring weather season. This shows the value and importance of having multiple research stations and collaboration between them. One station cannot predict bird populations especially in one year's worth of data because weather which is a major factor with where these birds migrate. This could give the wrong impression if only using one season or one year's worth of data. A decade's worth of migratory bird data or more would even/average out the strange weather or other factors during any individual season or year for a better evaluation of bird numbers and behaviors.
Another Example was sometime in the late 1990's (I believe it was 1998), there were tremendous number of fires in southern Mexico/ Central America that year prior to spring migration. The trans-Gulf migrants were extremely late in arriving in northern Ohio that spring. Some were 2 weeks later than normal. Just think about it, these birds had to fly hundreds of miles either over burnt habitats that provided little to no food for them to prepare for the long distance flight across the Gulf or they had to fly around the fires expending lots of energy that they would need to fly the 18-24 hours nonstop across the Gulf. Who knows how many birds never made it back that spring? The migratory songbirds that do not cross the Gulf/migrate up western and Central side of Mexico as well as those species that winter in the Caribbean were not affected as much and pretty much arrived on schedule.
Also sometime around 2006 or so there was the Horizon oil fires in the Gulf. That also affected those migrants crossing the Gulf that year as well. The wind drift toward the East also curtailed some of the Caribbean wintering species like the Black-throated Blue Warbler. So, there are usually multiple factors involved with understanding what is happening with our migratory bird populations.
Hope this addressed some of your questions.
Thanks for the questions and thoughts,
Julie Shieldcastle
Bird Conservancy of the Rockies