Migration Weather Forecast -- Major Weekend Storm

[Bryan Guarente]

Cobirders,

The northern portion of the state is in for some wild snow amounts (depending on who you believe).  With this, we are looking at some very nice swaths of southerly winds (example below):

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000 (forecast for 6pm tonight; green circle is around Boulder, CO).  That link should also be about the time that we should expect migrants to be taking off from Texas and further south.  For those of you who are radar enthusiasts for bird tracking, check the radar after dark in Texas to see if the birds are leaving as suggested.  

On those winds, I expect to see some migrants push further northward as this is one of those times where birds are starting to want to move north and this IS a good opportunity despite the snow we will get this far north.  This is a time to be efficient and cover some ground/sky.  I expect to see increases and FOYs in:

• Blue-winged Teals,
• Eared and Horned Grebes (maybe the beginnings of Western Grebes), 
• yellowlegs (Greater) and Killdeer with maybe some early sandpipers,
• Sandhill Cranes,
• Bonaparte's and Franklin's Gulls,
• Double-crested Cormorants,
• Turkey Vultures and possibly the first migrant Osprey and/or Swainson's Hawks,
• White-throated Swifts, Tree Swallows, and Barn Swallows
• Say's Phoebes,
• and Common Grackles.

If you want to see a really good swath of winds converging into a single location, look no further than this map: 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000. 

Looks like in the vicinity of Boulder, CO will be a nice hotspot tomorrow morning.  As the day goes on the convergence into Boulder disperses and more of the northern Urban corridor will get in on the action:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/14/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000 (5pm Saturday)

I'll leave it here for now and see what others are able to find as the days roll onward.  I am headed out here in a minute to get my binocs on some of these migrants before the snow starts.  Best of luck out there.  

Keep your feeders full, be careful shoveling (if you are the lucky ones who are getting snow), keep your ears peeled for Sandhills in the snow, and wear your masks,

Bryan

Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

[Camille Schiraldi]

How can I set up this wind map, so I can check out current conditions at any given time & place.  TIA

[Kevin Ash]

I'd recommend starting with the excellent webinar Bryan did for Colorado Field Ornithologists:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr5fWjOF7Ys

Kevin Ash

Colorado Springs

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[Bryan Guarente]

Camille (and likely others),

earth.nullschool.net can be set to "current" mode or "now" mode by clicking on the "Earth" button in the bottom left, then in the row labelled "Control" there is the  button that says "Now".  That is your button to set the webpage to your computer's current time.  Note that you will need to press "Now" if you haven't looked at the site in an hour or two as it doesn't auto-update (last time I checked).  

The data plotted on this page is from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  That data is not meant to be "current" conditions or to replace observations, it is meant to model what the atmosphere might be doing at that time.  It is relatively accurate but you should understand that small-scale variations in wind patterns (as an example only) can be very different.  The GFS model has a coarse resolution, so there is plenty of room for variation within the 13km resolution of the model.  Expect that the model will get the larger picture patterns correct, but the smaller scale patterns may be less accurate.  This is a great model to use for looking at the overall conditions around the globe and thus why it is used on this website.  

If you want to see the actual observations of the atmosphere, I can point you to some of those.  There are plenty of sites out there to offer that information as well.  It just isn't in as nice of a format for most people to take in.

Thanks for asking Camille,

Bryan

Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

On Sat, Mar 13, 2021 at 11:34 AM Camille Schiraldi <camil...@comcast.net> wrote:

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