Migration Forecast Update (Oct 23/24) and Looking further (Oct26/27)

[Bryan Guarente]

Hey COBirders, 

And just like that, Monday/Tuesday night doesn't look as good for migration! These are the same times as my last post, but the models have updated and the weather situation has changed. There is a stronger low that is forming in Montana that will draw the winds into it instead of letting them come down our direction. You can see the spinning low here (10pm Monday Oct 23): https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont) 

Then overnight, our northerly flow gets cut off significantly (6am Tuesday Oct 24): https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont) 

So cancel the stronger bird migration for Monday/Tuesday. But, Thursday through Friday are starting to look good. Here is just a taste (6am Oct 26): https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191 (Green circle is Longmont)

I'll post again as we get closer. 

Happy birding to you!

Bryan

Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO