Migration Weather Forecast for Monday/Tuesday October 11-12

[Bryan Guarente]

It is getting interesting in the weather realm coming early next week. Late Monday into Tuesday, we are expecting winds from the SW then switching to the SE from a great distance away (Mexico and southern Texas). It is days like these in Fall when the unexpected show up (Fork-Tailed Flycatcher, Tropical Kingbird, Painted Redstart, etc., or something less interesting than that but still noteworthy/rare). This is a strong southerly push:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/10/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.32,40.77,949/loc=-105.120,40.191 (green circle is Longmont; Tuesday at 6am)

Better convergence is occurring in WY, but CO should see a nice probability of something rare. 

Note that this is different than what you would normally see me predicting (normally birds from the north in Fall). If sometime on Monday into Tuesday you see something out of the corner of your eye and you thought it could be out of the ordinary, but doubted yourself, please take the time to look at it again.

Wednesday when the winds turn out of the north, we are relatively cut off from long-distance migrants from the north. So don’t expect a huge shift with high concentrations of lots of species, but definitely expect some seasonally-relevant turnover. 

Best of luck out there if you go searching,

Bryan

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Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO