Scott, David, et al,
Re crossbills at lower elevations, and cone crops in general, I would say the following:
Conifers produce cone crops at fairly irregular intervals, with what nursery people refer to as "bumper" crops occurring only every 3-5 years for most species of coniferous tree (in Colorado that would be pines, spruces, true firs, and Douglas-fir). Heavy cone crops can be triggered by both moisture (i.e. "good" growing conditions) and stress (i.e. "bad" growing conditions). If the stress is bad enough, and the plant has a physiological sense it might die, available energy can be, and often is, put into cone production as the best means of sustaining the species. Last winter and the months hence have generally had good moisture over wide areas of the Colorado mountains, so, as David suggests, cone production this year is mostly in response to good conditions.
Most conifer cones take one to two years to mature and produce viable seeds. Cone production starts in late spring after pollination of female cones (called "strobili") by pollen from male strobili. The resulting seed-bearing cones develop during the summer, and the future "inventory" available for exploitation the following winter (or the winter after that) becomes evident about this time of year. Thus, crossbills which are highly dependant on such a widely scattered, both geographically and temporally, resource as cones, need to engage in extensive scouting. Type 2 Red Crossbills dependent on ponderosa pine apparently have the ability to differentiate between 1-year old ("unripe") and 2-year old ("ripe") cones during scouting. I am not sure if this is done visually while on the wing (conifer cones are concentrated in tree tops AND the color of these two ages of cones ARE different), or if they have to stop and examine things/sample things more closely. Regardless of what exactly it entails, in my experience, much scouting occurs from mid-July thru the onset of winter (November-early December). How scouts convey information to the general population of crossbills is also a mystery, at least to me. But if you've ever watched a group of crossbills quietly feeding atop a conifer, and then heard one of them begin to call ("I'm having a tougher and tougher time over here finding seeds easily, I say we move on", or, "Is it just me, or do you guys feel Merlin eyes beating down on you?", or whatever it is they say), followed by a crescendo of the others calling in agreement, followed by them all flying off, they are obviously able to vocally convey information.
Whether we see conspicuous numbers of crossbills in the foothills or out on the plains probably depends a lot on the situation in the mountains. If cone crops are good everywhere in the mountains, not much scouting elsewhere will be necessary. But I would wager, diligent observation would result in at least a few sightings in almost every county on the eastern plains, and that if they occur, July-October would be the most likely time to see out-of-the-mountain wandering crossbills (and corvids, which also eat a lot of conifer seeds).
Dave Leatherman
Fort Collins