Fwd: Teach the Rider, Not Just the Road
Jim Baross
From: Justin D. McMurtry from On Further Reflection <onfurther...@substack.com>
Date: Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 7:17 AM
Subject: Teach the Rider, Not Just the Road
To: <jimb...@gmail.com>
Teach the Rider, Not Just the RoadWhy cyclist education is the most under-invested safety intervention we have
Here’s a question I’ve never seen anyone actually work through with numbers: in a typical week, how many cyclists does a typical motorist encounter? And how many motor vehicles does a typical cyclist encounter? Suppose my daily bicycle commute is eight miles each way, most of it on ordinary streets shared with cars. In a week of riding, I’d be passed by, wait behind, or otherwise interact with somewhere on the order of a thousand vehicles — closer to three thousand on busier corridors. Meanwhile, the driver of one of those cars, going about an ordinary week in a city where, per 2024 Census estimates, 0.63% of actual commuters traveled by bicycle, might see one cyclist. Maybe a handful, if their route happens to cross a popular corridor. Run the math a few different ways and the ratio lands somewhere between 1:100 and 1:1,000, depending on how generous you are to the motorist’s side of the ledger. That asymmetry isn’t a minor statistical curiosity. It’s the whole ballgame. And it points toward a conclusion the cycling-safety world has mostly talked around: if we’re going to invest in road-safety education, the highest-leverage place to put that investment is in training cyclists themselves, not training the motoring public. Why the cyclist, not the motoristA motorist who rarely encounters a cyclist has nothing to reinforce a one-time safety lesson before it decays into habit-default driving. A cyclist who rides regularly gets to practice and reinforce whatever they’ve learned on every single ride. Anyone who has taught anything knows that infrequent, unreinforced instruction has a short half-life. Frequent, applied instruction doesn’t. This isn’t a minor difference in degree — it’s the difference between a fact that’s forgotten and a skill that compounds. There’s a second reason the recipient matters as much as the message. A cyclist trained in lane positioning, visibility, and predictable behavior has real, exercisable control over how most interactions with traffic actually unfold — regardless of whether the driver they encounter that day happened to receive any training at all, retained it, or applied it correctly in the moment. Motorist education, by contrast, is a bet: you’re hoping the specific driver bearing down on a specific cyclist at a specific moment is one of the ones who got the message. That’s a weak bet to build a safety strategy around. The motorcycle precedentMotorcyclists don’t lobby for dedicated motorcycle lanes. What they have instead is the Motorcycle Safety Foundation’s Rider Education and Training System — a structured, decades-old curriculum that has trained more than ten million riders, and that most states link directly to licensing, waiving the road skills test for anyone who completes it. It’s institutionally load-bearing in a way cyclist education has never been allowed to be. MSF does maintain a motorist-facing product too, an “Intersection” awareness kit distributed through driver’s-ed classes. But it’s optional, supplementary material, not tied to licensing the way rider training is. Even in a safety culture that built a dedicated kit for motorist education, the intervention treated as essential infrastructure is still training the rider. Two messages, only one of them fundedCycling-safety messaging has mostly split into two camps. One says: give cyclists three feet, it’s the law — an accommodation framing, treating the cyclist as someone to be protected and worked around. You’ve seen it: CalBike’s “Give Me 3” campaign, Colorado’s road signs reading “State Law: Motorists Must Give Bicycles 3 Ft Clearance,” Austin’s “Drive Kind, Ride Kind.” The other says: cyclists belong in the street, same roads, same rules — a legitimacy framing, treating the cyclist as a full, predictable, rule-following participant in traffic, not a special case. This second framing has real research behind its central claim: a North Carolina State University study found that the “Bicycles May Use Full Lane“ sign conveys cyclists’ legal right to the lane far more effectively than the older “Share the Road” signage ever did — and a 2010 City of Austin before-and-after study found the percentage of motorists passing less than three feet from a cyclist dropped from 44% to zero once the signs went up. It’s rare to see the “same roads, same rules” message actually funded at government scale — but it has happened. In 2013, the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (”LA Metro” — not to be confused with Houston’s own transit agency, known locally as “METRO”) launched a real, agency-sponsored campaign called “Every Lane Is a Bike Lane,” running on the backs of buses, on billboards, and on the radio, explicitly citing California’s vehicle code. LA Metro didn’t stop at messaging: they paired the campaign with a $203,000 grant, funneled through the state Office of Traffic Safety and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, to fund up to 120 hands-on bicycle skills classes — classroom, parking lot, then real on-road riding, delivered in part by League Cycling Instructors, the same credential I hold. It’s one of the clearest real-world examples of the argument I’m making here: education of the vulnerable road user, treated as a funded priority alongside (not instead of) infrastructure and motorist messaging. I’ll note honestly that I couldn’t find a rigorous published evaluation of that campaign’s actual effect on crash rates — the same gap that shows up in most of these programs, including Chattanooga’s celebrated but under-measured driver-education initiative from the following year. That absence of measurement is itself part of the point I’m making, and I’ll come back to it. What infrastructure can’t fixThere’s a well-documented phenomenon in traffic-safety research called “looked but failed to see” — cases where a driver genuinely did not perceive a cyclist that was, by any objective measure, within their field of view. The mechanism has a name in the literature: cognitive conspicuity. Detection depends heavily on top-down attentional processing — what a driver’s brain expects to find — not just on raw visibility. And here’s the part that should worry infrastructure-first advocates specifically: a driving-simulator study on urban intersections found that protected bike lanes actually reduce how often drivers glance toward the space where cyclists travel, compared to conventional bike lanes. Separated infrastructure may not just fail to solve this problem. It may be training drivers to stop looking in exactly the place the conflict happens. Lane positioning is a countermeasure a cyclist can deploy directly and immediately, on every ride, regardless of what any given driver’s attentional habits happen to be. That’s the whole case for teaching the skill rather than hoping the infrastructure compensates for it. Infrastructure isn’t even built for the riders it has now. NACTO’s own design guide states that the typical design speed assumed for “protected” bike lanes and similar facilities is 10 to 15 miles per hour — and I’d argue that in a road-edge channelized facility with a high density of crossings and substantial motor traffic, even 10 MPH pushes the bounds of safety. In the very same document, NACTO states that typical e-bike operating speeds run 12 to 18 miles per hour — which my personal observations suggest is a conservative estimate. Even by the design guide’s own numbers, an ordinary e-bike rider is already expected to exceed the speed the infrastructure was supposedly designed to accommodate. On the demand for proofSkeptics of cyclist education sometimes ask for a population-level statistical study showing it reduces crashes. I understand the instinct, but I think it misunderstands what’s actually measurable here. If only a small fraction of a city’s cyclists ever take a skills course, the effect of that training gets diluted into city-wide crash statistics dominated by everyone who never took it — a real individual-level effect can vanish into statistical noise purely because of low reach, which is a fact about study design, not a fact about whether the intervention works. Absence of a study isn’t evidence of absence of an effect. But notice something: this same “low reach” objection applies with at least equal force to infrastructure. Houston’s official bike plan envisions 1,800 miles of dedicated bicycle facilities citywide. Roughly 400 miles of that plan — of any type at all, from painted lanes to shared-use paths — had been built as of 2021, the most recent figure I could confirm, with construction continuing since. And most of that isn’t even physically separated from car traffic: Houston’s on-street “protected” network runs to only about 25 miles. That’s a vanishingly small fraction of a city with thousands of miles of streets. Further, according to Axios, Houston’s bicycle fatality rate nearly doubled from the 2012-2016 average to the 2017-2021 average, the same years that limited network was expanding. I’m not asserting that this correlation proves infrastructure failed; that would be overreaching. But the claim that infrastructure protects “everyone” passively, in a way education supposedly can’t — as argued in a widely-cited 2019 study — doesn’t survive contact with how little of it actually exists on the ground, even in places doing this better, reputedly, than Houston. Minneapolis — ranked the top large U.S. city for cycling by PeopleForBikes, the bicycle industry’s own trade association, in 2023 and 2024 — has only about 16 miles of on-street protected bikeways of its own, fewer than Houston’s 25. If the single most celebrated cycling city in the country has built out a smaller on-street protected network than Houston, “infrastructure protects everyone” isn’t describing reality anywhere. What this actually costsHere’s the number that should end the argument. LA Metro’s own program materials state the grant was meant to reach up to 1,440 people — which works out to roughly $141 per student. That figure comes from the program’s planned capacity (120 classes at 12 students each), not confirmed actual attendance, which I couldn’t find published anywhere; I also don’t know whether the grant was structured to pay out per student or as a fixed budget for offering the classes regardless of turnout, so I can’t say with confidence which direction actual attendance would move this number. In any case, a complete CyclingSavvy course (the curriculum I’m certified to teach) currently runs $95 per student — an actual price rather than an estimate. Now compare that to what a single mile of infrastructure costs. The widely cited price range for a NACTO-style “protected” lane, from the Pedestrian and Bicycle Information Center, is $133,170 to $536,680 per mile — a figure that traces back to a 2013 report and, as far as I can tell, has never been updated, even though it’s still what nearly every recent article on the subject cites. Applying average nonresidential/infrastructure construction inflation since then (roughly 3.8% a year) — my own rough estimate, not a bike-lane-specific figure from any published source — puts the real current range closer to $208,000 to $840,000 per mile, more than 50% higher than the 2013 figures. At the low end of the national range, the cost of one mile could fund direct skills training for roughly 1,500 cyclists. At the high end, roughly 6,000. Compare that to how many different people actually use a given mile of most Houston on-street bicycle infrastructure on a regular basis. In my own assessment, based on what I’ve observed of ridership on existing on-street facilities, that number would likely be counted in the hundreds at most — a fraction of the thousands who could be reached directly through training for the same money. There’s a related point worth making, too. A mile of infrastructure, to the extent that it benefits anyone, only benefits a cyclist while they’re on that specific mile. Training doesn’t work that way — a rider carries it with them on every trip, down every street they’ll ever ride, including the vast majority that will never see a dedicated bike lane in their lifetime. The benefit isn’t confined to a single stretch of pavement. It travels with the rider. To be clear, I’m not arguing against well-designed, genuinely separated bicycle infrastructure — done right, it’s a great asset, and I’d never suggest defunding it. What I’m skeptical of is on-street “protected” lanes that are positioned at the road’s edge and riddled with driveway and intersection conflicts. That’s what too much of Houston’s existing network consists of, including the recently-built 11th Street bike lanes — a real, substantial infrastructure investment that still carries this same narrow, road-edge, conflict-riddled design. The askCyclist education isn’t a quick fix. Money alone doesn’t produce qualified instructors, and right now there aren’t nearly enough of them to teach it at real scale — building that capacity would take sustained investment over years, not a single grant cycle. But it’s a virtuous circle once it gets moving: the more cyclists who go through quality instruction, the more of them go on to want to teach it themselves, just the way MSF’s rider-training system has spent decades compounding into the institutional depth it has today. The instructor pipeline is itself the infrastructure that’s never been funded. Cyclist skills education deserves a funding stream and institutional standing on par with the scale infrastructure already receives — not instead of that investment, but alongside it, the same way motorcycling treats rider training as a parallel, load-bearing priority rather than an afterthought to road design. Right now, cyclist education in America mostly survives on whatever a handful of largely-volunteer instructors can manage on the side of their actual lives. That’s not a strategy. It’s a gap, sitting in plain sight, next to the most cost-effective intervention available in this entire field. On Further Reflection is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. You're currently a free subscriber to On Further Reflection. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription.
© 2026 Justin D. McMurtry
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Ron Medak
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