BRB Groupthink 4/24/2022

[Patrick Haughton]

We've been over this a thousand times so let me ask y'all point blank:

Who do you think the Houston Texans will take in the first round (3rd and 13th picks)?

And who do you think they SHOULD take with those picks if they are different?

[Scott Martin]

The idea of having ONE 1st round pick, much less 2, within the top 13 is a very, very alien concept that I am still trying to process. The idea that Houston could actually draft any of those top 50/75 prospects they always talk about is so different from the past few years. 

Setting aside the shock of this newess, here is what I see for picks 3 and 13.

#3:

Should pick: OL Evan Neal

Alternate considerations: OL Ikem Ekwonu, DL Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Pick I fear the team might go with: QB Malik Willis

Likely pick: Neal

#13:

Should pick: OL Charlie Cross, 

Alternate considerations: CB Derek Stingley Jr. DL Jordan Davis, trade #13 to obtain more 2022 2nd/3rd round picks

Pick I fear the team might go with: Any QB in the first round. 

Likely pick: DL George Karlaftis

For the 3rd pick, I know that there is a lot of hype around S Kyle Hamilton, but I am leery of using that high a 1st round pick on a DB of any sort. I would say Hutchinson at 3, but I see no future in which Hutchinson gets past Detroit at 2, and that is if Jacksonville don’t take him at 1.  That being said, I doubt Hamilton is around at 13. I think that 13 would be a great pick to trade for more picks, something Caserio might emulate from his time in New England. Barring the status of Gardner or Hamilton, the Texans come out of the 1st round with reinforcements on the DL and OL. 

I have nothing personal against any of the QBs in this draft, but none of them are worthy of a 1st round pick, especially a high one. Now, if Wills or Pickett happen to be around in the 2nd or especially the 3rd, different story. Mills is not looking like the franchise savior, but he is good enough for this season, and this draft is strong in many of the other positions the Texans need. 

Sent from my iPhone

On Apr 24, 2022, at 13:41, Patrick Haughton <path...@gmail.com> wrote:



We've been over this a thousand times so let me ask y'all point blank:

Who do you think the Houston Texans will take in the first round (3rd and 13th picks)?

And who do you think they SHOULD take with those picks if they are different?

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[Mike Bullock]

Based on Aidan Hutchinson being gone (hopefully Jacksonville and Detroit do what they do best - draft the wrong guy - and Hutch is still there at #3, but seems highly unlikely) then I'd say they should take Sauce Gardner. Adding assets to the offensive line, particularly at tackle, when they already have Tunsil and Howard doesn't make much sense. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Kyle Hamilton have some question marks that make them a bit of a gamble. #3 might be a bit high for Sauce based on some folks' opinions, but in the end if Houston can get a shutdown corner who starts for the team for years and makes it to multiple pro bowls, as Sauce should, then no one will care if they drafted him 3rd or 33rd. 

What I expect them to do: draft Evan Neal or Iken Ekwonu. Clearly they have no clue how to build a quality offensive line, so throwing more assets at the wall hoping one sticks seems like a very Texans thing to do. And Wildcard: it wouldn't surprise me if Jack Easterby convinces Nick Caserio to draft Malik Willis here (or 13th if he's still on the board then), which I fully expect the team to spin like a top to make it look like Easterby had nothing to do with it... 

The 13th pick will hopefully get traded for a later teens or 20s pick and another 2nd rounder. This draft is deep with defenders and giving up the 13th slot to get two potential starters makes all the sense in the world. 

What do I expect them to do? Trade the 13th spot for the linebacker equivalent of David Johnson, then trade that guy for not being a culture fit sometime between the end of the draft and week one for a 4th or 5th rounder in 2024... A lot of people are waving the "Nick Caserio draft genius" flag, but part of who he's shown to be so far is also the "Nick Caserio got pants'd in 2021 trades" reality. Shaq Lawson will hang from Caserio's neck like an albatross until he shows he can pull off savvy trades. Giving him the keys to a treasure trove of draft assets to wheel and deal based on his Texans trading track record calls for a case of Pepto Bismol... 

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[T.D. Durham]

When the Draft rolls around every year, my family and I do a competition where we predict the first round in full. You get 1 point if you predict a player to the right team (regardless of position) and 1 point if you pick a player to go in the right draft slot (regardless of team). In 10 years of playing the "Draft Game," I think the top score anyone has achieved has been 8-9 points, tops. This year, I'd be happy with 3-4 points - that's how hard this draft is to predict. There aren't even any "Andrew Luck to the Colts" type picks. To predict what the Texans get at 3 and 13 seems like a long shot, but I have some gut feelings. 

At #3, I feel like the Texans will go with Ikem Ekwonu. Ekwonu has such upside, has all the measurables, and is a monster in the run game (which the Texans HAVE to improve this offseason). I'd love the Ekwonu pick, even if he starts at guard his first year. If they don't go with Ekwonu, I could see them going Sauce Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or Hutch/Walker if they fall. What I absolutely don't want is a pick spent on QB. 

At 13, it's a crapshoot. My prediction is that the Texans go with a BPA pick of either: Derek Stingley Jr., Kyle Hamilton, or Jermaine Johnson. The only way any of those picks come to beis if a QB or two go in the top-12 picks. I'd be really happy with any of those, but Jermaine Johnson is my favorite of that bunch. Like Seth Payne, I can't stand the idea of drafting Trevor Penning at 13. No thanks. 

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[sbarzilla]

I think two things are important to look at. First, most of the decisions this offseason have gone Lovie Smith's way. He was able to build his staff the way he wanted. Whether he is moving forward as a traditional head coach with traditional autonomy remains to be seen, but I see the draft going his way as well. That means I think defense wins out in the first round. Should that happen? Oh heck, how should I know? This is a bad football team and they are a bad football team on both sides of the ball. If you load up on one side then at least that side will be average or better (given you hit on your picks). So, then becomes the question of what picks would have the most impact on the success of the defense.

This is where I get to the second important thing. If we look at Lovie's track record, he clearly favors defensive linemen early in the draft. Looking at his defense it makes sense. He wants a strong four man rush so he doesn't have to blitz too often. It allows him to play zone on the back end which means he can get by with lesser corners and fungible linebackers. Funny, that's exactly what this roster has. I keep seeing Sauce Gardner mocked to the Texans but I don't see them going that direction. I have no doubt he is the best all-around corner in the draft, but putting a great corner in this defense is like putting a Bose stereo in a 1974 Chevy Chavelle. Yeah, you'll have great tunes, but wouldn't that money be better spent fixing up the car or actually getting a newer one? 

I see them going Travon Walker at number three and then Jordan Davis at number 13. Is this what should happen? I don't have a crystal ball. I couldn't tell you whether Walker will be better than Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. Anyone that says they know is lying to you. I couldn't tell you whether Davis would be the maximum value at number 13. Maybe your offense is better with a wide receiver there. Maybe you can find a tackle that you can then move to guard. That's the fun part of the draft process. You can imagine any position group getting better. I like this combination because it theoretically improves your pass rush while also collapsing the inside and helping with the run defense. Even if Davis is no better than D.J. Reader and Walker is no better than Jadeveon Clowney you still have seriously upgraded your defensive line with borderline pro bowl starters that can be there for maybe a decade. That could make Jonathan Greenard play like a pro bowl player and allows you to rotate in Maliek Collins and Roy Lopez in a nasty three tackle rotation. If Ross Blacklock actually shows up so much the better.

[Kenneth Levy]

I see these picks as being a part of a pair. As much as I want the Texans to load up on one side of the ball, preferably defense, I doubt they'll do so. Then again, I truly hope they trade back with one of the picks, preferably the 3rd overall.

At three, they should take Evan Neal. The floor is soooooo high on this kid it's ridiculous. He's a day-one plug and play guy who will be a star on this team and in the league for years. He has pad level issues, but we'll work on that. 

At thirteen, they should take Jordan Davis. The hulking defensive lineman will be a standout on this defense and help add depth and run support immediately. Since we have Ross Blacklock and Roy Lopez, he'll be able to rotate in and not have to play all three downs, something he didn't have to do at Georgia and was a knock against him in the draft process. 

Here's what they WILL DO:

At three, they will take Travon Walker. The guy may be the favorite to be the first or second pick, but if he is there I doubt they'll pass on him. The athlete is too good and has too much upside for the Texans to not make a move. It's a positional need and won't be pick that receives a ton of backlash. 

At thirteen, unless Kyle Hamilton is there, they will take Trent McDuffie. Yes, this is a reach, but there's too much postulation and communication about the Texans lack of talent on the backend. This would entail Saurce Gardner, Derek Stingley, and Hamilton all being off the board, which is plausible. I can also see George Karloftis going here, but that's less likely based on the past week's rumors. 

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[Kenneth Levy]

I also agree with everything Scott wrote. 

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[sbarzilla]

Which Scott?