This Is Why Australia Hasn't Had a Recession in Over 25 Years - Bloomberg

[Joe Attueyi]

"....It was very different almost 30 years ago. Australia was a basket case, with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew warning it risked becoming “the poor white trash of Asia.” 

A 17-year stretch of reform driven by Labor titans Bob Hawke and Paul Keating ensued. Starting with the currency’s free float in 1983, it included financial deregulation, tax reform, slashing tariffs, ending centralized wage fixing and creating a private pension system. When Labor lost office in 1996, Liberal leader John Howard took up the cudgels, making the RBA officially independent, returning the budget to surplus and liberalizing labor laws. The introduction of a goods and services tax in 2000 was the last major successful reform. ..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/as-australia-eyes-victory-on-growth-its-spoils-look-bittersweet?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Sent from my iPhone

[Ishola Williams]

Pastor J,You don come again with your comparison between two countries that has no areas for comparison..There is so much different between gree apple and green avocado.We share green colour with the Aussies.

Why are so obsessed with Bloomberg and WSJ.There are no African Journals worth quoting.

Australia as a federation has Resource control with autonomous States etc.

The near homogenous white population  with political powerless and power aborigines cannot be compared to Nigeria.

I beg u tell me real tory about a country comparable to Nigera.Please donot give that lowdown that we want to be as WI calls it move from 3rd or second to 1st Wolrd like Australia.iw

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Lagos.

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08056210960

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Joe Attueyi:

I am always amused when without much reflection you compare Nigeria and some other countries - eg Australia in your latest example - and by implication or by explicit advice imagine that the economic policies that these other countries adopt or adopted at some point AUTOMATICALLY means that Nigeria should adopt them.

I put it to you that adopting quite a number of these policies AS STATED may actually make things worse, not better.

For example, I have put together below for our benefit a table of comparisons between Australia and Nigeria, and highlighted in red some key issues:

TABLE 1:  NIGERIA-AUSTRALIA COMPARISON

 

Source:  cia.gov

 

S/N	Item	Nigeria	Australia
1	Population	186,053,386 note: estimates for this country explicitly take into account the effects of excess mortality due to AIDS; this can result in lower life expectancy, higher infant mortality, higher death rates, lower population growth rates, and changes in the distribution of population by age and sex than would otherwise be expected (July 2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 8	22,992,654 (July 2016 est.)
2	Area	total: 923,768 sq km land: 910,768 sq km water: 13,000 sq km country comparison to the world: 32	total: 7,741,220 sq km land: 7,682,300 sq km water: 58,920 sq km note: includes Lord Howe Island and Macquarie Island country comparison to the world: 6
3	Ethnic Groups	Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, is composed of more than 250 ethnic groups; the most populous and politically influential are: Hausa and the Fulani 29%, Yoruba 21%, Igbo (Ibo) 18%, Ijaw 10%, Kanuri 4%, Ibibio 3.5%, Tiv 2.5%	English 25.9%, Australian 25.4%, Irish 7.5%, Scottish 6.4%, Italian 3.3%, German 3.2%, Chinese 3.1%, Indian 1.4%, Greek 1.4%, Dutch 1.2%, other 15.8% (includes Australian aboriginal .5%), unspecified 5.4%
4	Religions	Muslim 50%, Christian 40%, indigenous beliefs 10%	Protestant 30.1% (Anglican 17.1%, Uniting Church 5.0%, Presbyterian and Reformed 2.8%, Baptist, 1.6%, Lutheran 1.2%, Pentecostal 1.1%, other Protestant 1.3%), Catholic 25.3% (Roman Catholic 25.1%, other Catholic 0.2%), other Christian 2.9%, Orthodox 2.8%, Buddhist 2.5%, Muslim 2.2%, Hindu 1.3%, other 1.3%, none 22.3%, unspecified 9.3% (2011 est.)
5	Age Structure	0-14 years: 42.79% (male 40,744,956/female 38,870,303) 15-24 years: 19.48% (male 18,514,466/female 17,729,351) 25-54 years: 30.65% (male 29,259,621/female 27,768,368) 55-64 years: 3.96% (male 3,595,293/female 3,769,986) 65 years and over: 3.12% (male 2,754,040/female 3,047,002) (2016 est.) population pyramid:	0-14 years: 17.84% (male 2,105,433/female 1,997,433) 15-24 years: 12.96% (male 1,528,993/female 1,451,340) 25-54 years: 41.55% (male 4,862,591/female 4,691,975) 55-64 years: 11.82% (male 1,347,780/female 1,369,501) 65 years and over: 15.82% (male 1,684,339/female 1,953,269) (2016 est.) population pyramid:
6	Export Commodities	petroleum and petroleum products 95%, cocoa, rubber (2012 est.)	coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, machinery and transport equipment
7	Export $	$33.27 billion (2016 est.) $45.89 billion (2015 est.)	$184.3 billion (2016 est.) $188.3 billion (2015 est.)
8	Import Commodities	machinery, chemicals, transport equipment, manufactured goods, food and live animals	machinery and transport equipment, computers and office machines, telecommunication equipment and parts; crude oil and petroleum products
9	Import $	$36.4 billion (2016 est.) $52.33 billion (2015 est.)	$203.1 billion (2016 est.) $207.7 billion (2015 est.)
10	GDP  - PPP	$1.089 trillion (2016 est.) $1.108 trillion (2015 est.) $1.08 trillion (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars	$1.189 trillion (2016 est.) $1.156 trillion (2015 est.) $1.128 trillion (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 20
11	GDP per capita	$5,900 (2016 est.) $6,200 (2015 est.) $6,200 (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 163	$48,800 (2016 est.) $48,300 (2015 est.) $47,800 (2014 est.) note: data are in 2016 dollars country comparison to the world: 26
12	GDP Real Growth	-1.7% (2016 est.) 2.7% (2015 est.) 6.3% (2014 est.) country comparison to the world: 205	2.9% (2016 est.) 2.4% (2015 est.) 2.7% (2014 est.)
13	GDP – Composition by Sector of Origin	agriculture: 21.1% industry: 19.4% services: 59.5% (2016 est.)	agriculture: 3.6% industry: 28.2% services: 68.2% (2016 est.)
14	Labor Force	58.8 million (2016 est.)	12.63 million (2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 45
15	Labor Force by occupation	agriculture: 70% industry: 10% services: 20% (1999 est.)	agriculture: 3.6% industry: 21.1% services: 75.3% (2009 est.)
16	Unemployment Rate	23.9% (2011 est.) 4.9% (2011 est.)	5.8% (2016 est.) 6.1% (2015 est.)
17	Budget	revenues: $11.4 billion expenditures: $21.21 billion (2016 est.)	revenues: $420.5 billion expenditures: $446.4 billion (2016 est)
18	Taxes and other revenues	2.7% of GDP (2016 est.) country comparison to the world: 217	33.5% of GDP (2016 est.)
19	Reserves of Foreign Exchange and Gold	$23.47 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $29.07 billion (31 December 2015 est.)	$54.3 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $49.27 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
20	Debt - External	$39.1 billion (31 December 2016 est.) $32.27 billion (31 December 2015 est.) country comparison to the world: 71	$1.692 trillion (31 December 2016 est.) $1.524 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
21	Exchange Rates	Nigerian nairas (NGN) per US dollar - 246.2 (2016 est.) 192.73 (2015 est.) 192.73 (2014 est.) 158.55 (2013 est.) 156.81 (2012 est.)	Australian dollars (AUD) per US dollar - 1.352 (2016 est.) 1.3291 (2015 est.) 1.3291 (2014 est.) 1.1094 (2013 est.) 0.97 (2012 est.)

 

First, Nigeria is about eight-and-a-half times the population of Australia and at the same time, about eight times LESS in size than Australia - with whatever the consequences of those facts.  The age structure of Nigeria is heavily skewed towards the young (and unproductive) ages, compared with Australia, which means that the dependency ratio of Nigeria is greater.  Nigeria is monocultural, with Australia being more diversified, with export earnings of Australia is six times that of Nigeria.  The labor force structure of Nigeria is inverse of that of Australia.  All of that may have led to a GDP per capita of Australia which is eight times of Nigeria, with Nigeria's GDP dwindling while Australia's own remained steady.  Very instructively, while Australia's budget revenue is about forty times that of Nigeria, its budget expenditure is only twenty times that of Nigeria, implying that Australia's government is more frugal.  As percentage of GDP, Australia collects over ten times more taxes than Nigeria.  But note that while Australia's foreign reserves is barely twice that of Nigeria, its foreign debt is about four hundred times that of Nigeria, while its exchange rate since 2012 has experience similar battering like Nigeria's.

What I am indicating is that it is FACILE for you to just merely throw out what Australia has done since 1983, and then retreat.  

EVERY recommendation that we make for our country MUST at the minimum be towards 

(1) putting more of our people to work, 

(2)  increasing our per capita productivity, 

(3)  decreasing our import dependency, 

(4)  increasing our export earnings,

(5)   curbing our government expenditures relative to revenues, and 

(6)  increasing our tax earnings relative to GDP.

Any other tasks are just time-wasting.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

GIW:

May your tribe increase!

Without reading your admonition below, I have just provided Joe Attueyi with a table of comparisons between Nigeria and Australia, to "tutor" him on some lessons that we might all learn.  His economic and financial orthodoxy and penchant for Bretton-Woods policies as enunciated by WSJ, Bloomberg and Financial Times can be quite amusing.

It is NOT as if we must reflexively IGNORE their recommendations, but we must NOT reflexively adopt them too, because all they know is what works in their economies, not in economies like ours.  I am yet to see a country ADOPT their policies IN-TOTO that moved from Third World to First World.  What is required is an INTERNAL discipline to look inwards, and then others outside will come in in a mutually beneficial manner.  Otherwise, you will be taken full advantage of - as Nigeria continues to be taken full advantage of.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

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[Joe Attueyi]

Prof Aluko

1. It is a good thing that you get free amusement in this Buhari economy. There are many Nigerians who have not had the privilege in the past year. You owe me. 

2. There are many roads that lead to Nkwo Nnewi market. Those of us without the steering can only proffer the ways our knowledge and experience suggest to be the better way. Ultimately the man with the steering has to make the call and take responsibility for its come. 

3. Other than show off your 'cut and paste skills 'I am not sure exactly what the comparison table below between Nigeria and Australia is supposed to achieve. You have gone to elaborate lengths to compare Nigeria of today to Australia of today. The real comparison my post was expected to engender is a comparison of Nigeria of today to Australia of 30 years ago. And then ask the difficult question: What did they do in the intervening years to get to where they are and what can we learn from that. Are you able to do that study? It is more useful conversation than all these cut and paste charts. 

 Australia is a mineral -resource -export / plant -and - machinery import dependent economy that 30 years was 

".. a basket case, with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew warning it risked becoming “the poor white trash of Asia.” 

Sounds a lot like Nigeria of today to me. 

Which led my rational mind to think that it is worth studying what Australia did right in the intervening years to bring them to where they are today. Surely there must one or two principles/ policies we can take from their lessons learnt and adapt for our purposes to help our journey to somewhere different in 30 years time. No?

Joe
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[Joe Attueyi]

Oga General 

30 years ago Australia was an economic basket case  just like Nigeria is now. Today it is a first world economy 

Are you saying that Nigeria cannot study the success formulas of countries that were in its economic shoes decades ago and pick and choose policies it can borrow and adapt to get out of its economic quagmire?

2. What country comparable to Nigeria do you want?  I can give you case studies of Brazil if you want and you will find the success formulas are not significantly different ( sans some local adaptations)

3. Yes I read WSJ and Bloomberg and Economist. Because I find them educative. What African economic journal do you recommend?

Joe

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[Nelson Ekujumi]

Prof.

God bless you for this analytical piece, hope the one sided, one eyed analyst(s) have learnt a lesson or two?

Nelson Ekujumi

Sent from my Huawei Mobile

On Fri, Mar 31, 2017 at 12:55 PM, 'Joe Attueyi' via AfricanWorldForum <africanw...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

"....It was very different almost 30 years ago. Australia was a basket case, with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew warning it risked becoming “the poor white trash of Asia.” 

A 17-year stretch of reform driven by Labor titans Bob Hawke and Paul Keating ensued. Starting with the currency’s free float in 1983, it included financial deregulation, tax reform, slashing tariffs, ending centralized wage fixing and creating a private pension system. When Labor lost office in 1996, Liberal leader John Howard took up the cudgels, making the RBA officially independent, returning the budget to surplus and liberalizing labor laws. The introduction of a goods and services tax in 2000 was the last major successful reform. ..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-30/as-australia-eyes-victory-on-growth-its-spoils-look-bittersweet?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Joe Attueyi:

Very ironical - after "copying and posting" WSJ, Bloomberg and Financial Times articles endlessly here, and then implying without comment that we should "copy and paste" Australia's policies of thirty years ago to Nigeria of today, you accuse me of "copying and pasting" comparisons of Australia and Nigeria, even after I used those comparisons to PROFFER what I believe should be the steps that I believe Nigeria should take?

I suspect that you are both un-imaginative - just copying what the West believes are successful for them TODAY, forgetting what they were YESTERDAY - as well as more interested in SHOWING UP the government of the day that you do not support.

Laughter  is indeed the best medicine for some of your upandan interventions!

Let me repeat what I did not copy from Australia:  any fiscal or monetary policy of Nigeria of TODAY must be put to at least six tests:

(1) putting more of our people to work, 

(2)  increasing our per capita productivity, 

(3)  decreasing our import dependency, 

(4)  increasing our export earnings,

(5)   curbing our government expenditures relative to revenues, and 

(6)  increasing our tax earnings relative to GDP.

And there you have it!

Bolaji Aluko

[Joe Attueyi]

Joe Attueyi:

Very ironical - after "copying and posting" WSJ, Bloomberg and Financial Times articles endlessly here, and then implying without comment that we should "copy and paste" Australia's policies of thirty years ago to Nigeria of today, you accuse me of "copying and pasting" comparisons of Australia and Nigeria, .....

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Good you still retain a good sense of humour Prof Aluko. !!

Joe
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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Joe Attueyi:

If one does not maintain a sense of humor among Nigerians, one would go crazy.    How do you think that I have remained on these Naija Cyber forums since 1993?  You think that it is by taking every one of you around here seriously?

Mba nu!

Listen up:  two  weeks, I met up with Erg  - you remember him....that is Federal Edosomwan - in Benin-City.  at an event.   He came in from Port Harcourt and I came in from Abuja.  Yes - I asked him:  "Na you be dis?"   We even took pictures - along with Chief Charles Edosomwan (SAN) - no relation!  One would think that we would kill each other whenever we met!

The only person that I would set OPC on knows himself in these forums.....let him try me.....

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

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[Joe Attueyi]

I suspect that you are both un-imaginative - just copying what the West believes are successful for them TODAY, forgetting what they were YESTERDAY - as well as more interested in SHOWING UP the government of the day that you do not support.

Prof Aluko 

On a more serious note I think you should have given up on this your Buhari Media Centre type behaviour as typified by the excerpt above.---especially when serious issues are being discussed. Any of those 6,000 jobs that may be worth your while are gone I think. 

2. Here are the stuff Australia started doing 30 years ago:

A 17-year stretch of reform driven by Labor titans Bob Hawke and Paul Keating ensued. Starting with the currency’s free float in 1983,

We have debated the pros and cons of 'currency free float' ad nauseam so let's park it for a moment 

it included financial deregulation,

Nigeria started Financial deregulation years ago. It has moved us away from the old 'tally number' of the Government owned banks to more than 20 privately owned banks who dominate the West African banking scene creating jobs, increasing per capita productivity , increasing corporate tax base etc

tax reform,slashing tariffs,

Theoretically part of the current ERP. We await to see if it will be implemented 

ending centralized wage fixing

Why would a federation fix wages centrally? Minimum wage in Lagos should be different from minimum wage in Gombe. Is this not pure common sense 

and creating a private pension system.

When Labor lost office in 1996, Liberal leader John Howard took up the cudgels, making the RBA officially independent, returning the budget to surplus and liberalizing labor laws. The introduction of a goods and services tax in 2000 was the last major successful reform. ..."

Please hold my hands and explain how Australia's reform policies are significantly divergent from your 'six tests' that required your term paper on how Australia is different from Nigeria 

Joe

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Nelson Ekujumi:

Thank you bo...may God bless you too!

For Joe Attueyi, every problem is a nail that requires a hammer.  Once he saw "currency float" in Australia's 1983 menu of tools, which he believes that is what must happen in Nigeria today,  he trots that out, along with possibly others.  Attueyi does not want to be confused with contemporary facts.

He forgets that Australia is essentially an "European" "Christian" industrialized country (even 30 years ago) with a large Asian market in its spitting-distance neighborhood .  In any case, its polices that Joe touted were over 17 years - should we in Nigeria not be in a greater hurry?  Were all their policies successful even in those years?

I absolutely have no problem studying other countries' successes.  But we must UNDERSTAND our own problems first, and have the confidence and assurance that we can solve our own problems.  In any case, I am yet to see any country succeed SOLELY due to the efforts of other countries....certainly not through currency manipulations that are not backed by increased productivity and sustainable earnings.....even Germany and Japan that recovered from World War II through serious INDUSTRIALIZATION with the keen help of their former enemies still had to look inwards.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

[Wilson Iguade]

Quote

Please donot give that lowdown that we want to be as WI calls it move from 3rd or second to 1st Wolrd like Australia.iw

Unquote 

Above should tell Ayo and his cohorts that Gen. IW and WI have special relationship in the fora that buffoons like Ayo need not interfere with. Lol 😆 

Stay tuned for more romance between IW and WI!

Iguade

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[Wilson Iguade]

Quote

Please donot give that lowdown that we want to be as WI calls it move from 3rd or second to 1st Wolrd like Australia.iw

Unquote 

Above should tell Ayo and his cohorts that Gen. IW and WI have special relationship in the fora that buffoons like Ayo need not interfere with. Lol 😆 

Stay tuned for more romance between IW and WI!

Iguade

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On Mar 31, 2017, at 9:01 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alu...@gmail.com> wrote:

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[Wilson Iguade]

The fact is some of these people (posting left and right in the fora) have had or held "public" office and have NOTHING to show for it except EXCUSES!

Lord have mercy! Iguade

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[Afis Deinde]

"The only person that I would set OPC on knows himself in these forums.....let him try me....."........Dr Aluko.

That's Hillary Hilarious!

Afis

“Just as a solid rock is not shaken by the storm, even so the wise are not affected by praise or blame.” — Dhamapada, verse 81.

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[Mobolaji Aluko]

Ola Kassim:

I have no problem agreeing with your "Sustainable Population Growth Rate" - who would not agree to anything "sustainable?"

What I did not agree with you in the past is your erstwhile AGGRESSIVE/ACTIVE prescription of HOW to achieve that "sustainable population growth rate" - which I presume includes ABSTINENCE, FAMILY PLANNING, DELAYED GRATIFICATION, and in particular a prescription of  ONE CHILD (or TWO CHILDREN) per family etc. - in some kind of ENFORCED manner,including some SANCTIONS?

It is that enforcement that I oppose, particularly when we note the skewed population ranges are towards the most sexually active.

Rather, I believe that all of that sustainable growth can be achieved more passively with UNIVERSAL EDUCATION (both life and work-skills, as well as religious), MASSIVE EMPLOYMENT, etc.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

, 

On Fri, Mar 31, 2017 at 5:43 PM, <olaka...@aol.com> wrote:

"EVERY recommendation that we make for our country MUST at the minimum be towards 

(1) putting more of our people to work, 

(2)  increasing our per capita productivity, 

(3)  decreasing our import dependency, 

(4)  increasing our export earnings,

(5)   curbing our government expenditures relative to revenues, and 

(6)  increasing our tax earnings relative to GDP.

Any other tasks are just time-wasting.

And there you have it."----Bolaji Aluko

Bolaji:

Thanks for sharing the statistical comparison between Nigeria--a developing nation

and Australia--a developed nation and a member of the G7 and the G12.

Even though you may object, I am inclined to add a 7th recommendation to the above

list all of which I agree with.

#7: Measures towards achieving a "Sustainable Population Growth Rate"

The comparative age structure between Nigeria and Australia reveals that our age structure is the inverse of that of Australia:

Age Structure

0-14 years: 42.79% (male 40,744,956/female 38,870,303) 15-24 years: 19.48% (male 18,514,466/female 17,729,351) 25-54 years: 30.65% (male 29,259,621/female 27,768,368) 55-64 years: 3.96% (male 3,595,293/female 3,769,986) 65 years and over: 3.12% (male   2,754,040/female 3,047,002) (2016 est.) population pyramid:

0-14 years: 17.84% (male 2,105,433/female 1,997,433) 15-24 years: 12.96% (male 1,528,993/female 1,451,340) 25-54 years: 41.55% (male 4,862,591/female 4,691,975) 55-64 years: 11.82% (male 1,347,780/female 1,369,501) 65 years and over: 15.82% (male 1,684,339/female 1,953,269) (2016 est.) population pyramid:

62% of Nigeria's population is under 25 years of age  of which 48.79% are under 15 years of age versus 31% and 17.89% respectively for the Australians of the same age cohorts.

Population growth rate is a double edged sword in its impact on socioeconomic development.

It has just as much adverse effect on socioeconomic development when it is too low (i.e. when it is lower than the rate that is sufficient to replace the ageing population when they die) as much as it has when it is too high when most of the population are young (below 15 and under 25 years

when they are either unproductive or have not reached their peak productive capacity to contribute sufficiently to economic growth.

Nigeria urgently needs to take measures towards achieving sustainable population growth rate

in addition to other measures including those you listed above and others that are not on the list.

Bye,

Ola