Macron and the Maghreb
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Elisabeth Janaina
Jun 4, 2017, 11:42:59 AM6/4/17
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Macron and the Maghreb
By Sabina Henneberg
June 1, 2017
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Relations with North Africa may not be a priority for France’s new
president, but they should be.
The election of France's new president Emmanuel Macron. was welcomed
by many African leaders Credit: Jeso Carneiro.
The election of France’s new president Emmanuel Macron. was welcomed
by many African leaders Credit: Jeso Carneiro.
As France’s presidential election this May captured much of the
world’s attention, one region with a particularly close eye on the
outcome was the Maghreb.
Many African leaders welcomed Emmanuel Macron’s eventual victory. In
his campaign, the 39-year-old centrist expressed commitment to the
continent’s development and democratisation. This was in contrast to
many of his opponents, who emphasised counterterrorism and immigration
controls.
However, for the time being, Macron’s election raises as many
questions for Africa as it answers.
The new president has already paid a visit to the continent as he met
with French troops in Mali. But French foreign policy going forwards
will significantly depend on the legislative elections scheduled for
11 and 18 June. Macron’s En Marche! Party is unlikely to win a
majority in the National Assembly, meaning he will have to work with
whichever party does best.
Additionally, the weakened position of France’s most established
political parties – the Republicans and Socialists – suggests the
elections may see a new generation of politicians enter government.
Having said that, Macron’s initial pick for Foreign Affairs and
European Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, comes from outgoing President
François Hollande’s cabinet, suggesting continuity.
Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia
Regardless of the results, Macron will face a host of tough domestic
and international challenges. Relations with North Africa are unlikely
to be a priority. Yet France’s former colonies in the Maghreb –
Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia – continue to face near- and medium-term
uncertainties that should be of concern to France.
Morocco is arguably the most stable of the three, having successfully
“managed” the unrest of early 2011. But it is also a site from which
many migrants attempt to cross into Europe. Morocco has recently tried
to use this point as leverage with Spain and Italy, linking its
efforts to curb migration with support for its claims over the Western
Sahara.
[40 years of hurt: The never-ending scandal of the Western Sahara]
[“Only independence will restore us”: A Sahrawi refugee recalls
Western Sahara’s invasion]
Morocco also struggles with various governance concerns.
Parliamentarians and ministers have recently faced allegations of
corruption and scandals, leading to popular disillusionment with the
country’s leadership. Meanwhile, the country faced months of political
paralysis earlier this year after the new prime minister failed to
form a coalition government.
Perhaps most significantly for France, Morocco has also shown a
growing interest in working with other international partners –
notably Russia and China – for strategic and economic ends. At the
same time, it has been increasingly asserting itself as an investor in
other African countries. These trends have raised some concerns in
Europe and the United States that they could get left behind.
[Why did the African Union readmit Morocco after its 33 years in the cold?]
At the other end of the spectrum, Algeria may be facing the most
uncertainty. This is due to questions around an anticipated
presidential succession, declining oil prices, and other economic
concerns. Although the results of recent parliamentary elections did
not bring an immediate shift in power, they also did nothing to
reassure observers of the government’s ability to prevent a political
crisis.
Across the border, Tunisia is often hailed as the most successful
country in implementing genuine democratic reforms after the 2011
uprisings. But it too faces major security and economic concerns.
Terrorism has been cited as one of the region’s most pressing threats
given the numbers of Tunisians joining ISIS, the recent high-profile
attacks in Tunisia and Algeria, and the origins of individuals thought
to be behind recent attacks in Nice, Brussels and Berlin.
Additional concerns for France arise from elsewhere in North Africa.
For example, the long-standing conflict over the people of the Western
Sahara’s right to self-determination has the potential to thwart
cooperation between Algeria and Morocco; recent ministerial changes in
Algeria have also raised the spectre of increased competition between
the two countries. Meanwhile, reducing instability in the likes of
Mali and Libya also requires strength and predictability in the other
three Maghreb countries.
Priorities with the Maghreb
Given significant concerns in the region and the long history of close
relations with France, changes in Paris’ approach could have major
repercussions. France’s relationship with its three former colonies,
particularly Algeria, is complex and delicate. Any disruption now –
such as an abrupt departure from Macron’s liberal approach to
immigration or significantly reforming neo-colonial ties – would
likely exacerbate problems in the short term.
In terms of counterterrorism, continued regional cooperation is
crucial. France’s military support and cooperation with these Maghreb
countries in Mali have been seen as important forces in the efforts
against insecurity.
Part of these efforts includes France maintaining support for growth
and stability in the Maghreb. This means continuing economic
partnerships to help lower unemployment and revive important sectors
such as tourism.
The same goes for work towards political liberalisation that fosters
participation and helps to prevent large-scale social unrest or other
political crises. Offering strong support to Tunisia for its upcoming
municipal elections, for example, should be a high priority.
However, maintaining strong partnerships between France and North
Africa goes beyond security and counterterrorism. Economic prosperity,
reducing migration flows, and human rights protection are important
too – not simply steps on the way to guaranteeing a safer France and
world.
As Macron settles into the job and waits for the final make-up of the
National Assembly, let’s hope France’s new leadership will recognise
this.
By Sabina Henneberg
June 1, 2017
0
Share:
Relations with North Africa may not be a priority for France’s new
president, but they should be.
The election of France's new president Emmanuel Macron. was welcomed
by many African leaders Credit: Jeso Carneiro.
The election of France’s new president Emmanuel Macron. was welcomed
by many African leaders Credit: Jeso Carneiro.
As France’s presidential election this May captured much of the
world’s attention, one region with a particularly close eye on the
outcome was the Maghreb.
Many African leaders welcomed Emmanuel Macron’s eventual victory. In
his campaign, the 39-year-old centrist expressed commitment to the
continent’s development and democratisation. This was in contrast to
many of his opponents, who emphasised counterterrorism and immigration
controls.
However, for the time being, Macron’s election raises as many
questions for Africa as it answers.
The new president has already paid a visit to the continent as he met
with French troops in Mali. But French foreign policy going forwards
will significantly depend on the legislative elections scheduled for
11 and 18 June. Macron’s En Marche! Party is unlikely to win a
majority in the National Assembly, meaning he will have to work with
whichever party does best.
Additionally, the weakened position of France’s most established
political parties – the Republicans and Socialists – suggests the
elections may see a new generation of politicians enter government.
Having said that, Macron’s initial pick for Foreign Affairs and
European Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, comes from outgoing President
François Hollande’s cabinet, suggesting continuity.
Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia
Regardless of the results, Macron will face a host of tough domestic
and international challenges. Relations with North Africa are unlikely
to be a priority. Yet France’s former colonies in the Maghreb –
Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia – continue to face near- and medium-term
uncertainties that should be of concern to France.
Morocco is arguably the most stable of the three, having successfully
“managed” the unrest of early 2011. But it is also a site from which
many migrants attempt to cross into Europe. Morocco has recently tried
to use this point as leverage with Spain and Italy, linking its
efforts to curb migration with support for its claims over the Western
Sahara.
[40 years of hurt: The never-ending scandal of the Western Sahara]
[“Only independence will restore us”: A Sahrawi refugee recalls
Western Sahara’s invasion]
Morocco also struggles with various governance concerns.
Parliamentarians and ministers have recently faced allegations of
corruption and scandals, leading to popular disillusionment with the
country’s leadership. Meanwhile, the country faced months of political
paralysis earlier this year after the new prime minister failed to
form a coalition government.
Perhaps most significantly for France, Morocco has also shown a
growing interest in working with other international partners –
notably Russia and China – for strategic and economic ends. At the
same time, it has been increasingly asserting itself as an investor in
other African countries. These trends have raised some concerns in
Europe and the United States that they could get left behind.
[Why did the African Union readmit Morocco after its 33 years in the cold?]
At the other end of the spectrum, Algeria may be facing the most
uncertainty. This is due to questions around an anticipated
presidential succession, declining oil prices, and other economic
concerns. Although the results of recent parliamentary elections did
not bring an immediate shift in power, they also did nothing to
reassure observers of the government’s ability to prevent a political
crisis.
Across the border, Tunisia is often hailed as the most successful
country in implementing genuine democratic reforms after the 2011
uprisings. But it too faces major security and economic concerns.
Terrorism has been cited as one of the region’s most pressing threats
given the numbers of Tunisians joining ISIS, the recent high-profile
attacks in Tunisia and Algeria, and the origins of individuals thought
to be behind recent attacks in Nice, Brussels and Berlin.
Additional concerns for France arise from elsewhere in North Africa.
For example, the long-standing conflict over the people of the Western
Sahara’s right to self-determination has the potential to thwart
cooperation between Algeria and Morocco; recent ministerial changes in
Algeria have also raised the spectre of increased competition between
the two countries. Meanwhile, reducing instability in the likes of
Mali and Libya also requires strength and predictability in the other
three Maghreb countries.
Priorities with the Maghreb
Given significant concerns in the region and the long history of close
relations with France, changes in Paris’ approach could have major
repercussions. France’s relationship with its three former colonies,
particularly Algeria, is complex and delicate. Any disruption now –
such as an abrupt departure from Macron’s liberal approach to
immigration or significantly reforming neo-colonial ties – would
likely exacerbate problems in the short term.
In terms of counterterrorism, continued regional cooperation is
crucial. France’s military support and cooperation with these Maghreb
countries in Mali have been seen as important forces in the efforts
against insecurity.
Part of these efforts includes France maintaining support for growth
and stability in the Maghreb. This means continuing economic
partnerships to help lower unemployment and revive important sectors
such as tourism.
The same goes for work towards political liberalisation that fosters
participation and helps to prevent large-scale social unrest or other
political crises. Offering strong support to Tunisia for its upcoming
municipal elections, for example, should be a high priority.
However, maintaining strong partnerships between France and North
Africa goes beyond security and counterterrorism. Economic prosperity,
reducing migration flows, and human rights protection are important
too – not simply steps on the way to guaranteeing a safer France and
world.
As Macron settles into the job and waits for the final make-up of the
National Assembly, let’s hope France’s new leadership will recognise
this.
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