What does opposition leader Tshisekedi’s death mean for DR Congo’s road to elections?

[Elisabeth Janaina]

What does opposition leader Tshisekedi’s death mean for DR Congo’s
road to elections?
Posted on February 3, 2017 by Hans Hoebeke & Richard Moncrieff
The death of the veteran politician deprives the opposition of a
well-known rallying figure. Without him, uncertainty and growing
popular anger are likely to lead to more instability.

The veteran opposition politician leading a rally in 2011. Credit:
VoteTshisekedi.

The death of prominent opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi has
deprived the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) of a unique political
figure who was at the forefront of the fight for democracy for over
three decades.

His loss is a major blow to the main opposition coalition, the
Rassemblement, which he led alongside the relative newcomer,
ex-Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi. It also undermines the DRC’s
faltering transition and may play into the hands of the ruling
majority that has consistently sought to delay elections.

Coming just a month after the signing of a political agreement, which
would have put him at the head of an important follow-up committee,
his departure robs the opposition of a leader able to combine genuine
street-level popularity with an ability to squeeze out political
deals. As popular anger mounts, the opposition will have to work hard
to rebuild a credible leadership, capable of concluding a deal with
the majority.

A fragmented opposition loses its figurehead

The 84-year-old Etienne Tshisekedi launched the Union for Democracy
and Social Progress (UDPS) opposition party in 1982 and built a strong
following in his native Kasai region and in the capital Kinshasa. He
symbolised the struggle for democracy in the waning days of the
President Mobutu Sese Seko regime. He also opposed President Laurent
Kabila, who overthrew Mobutu in 1997, and his son Joseph Kabila, the
current president.

Unable to resist the populist option, he made a strategic error when
he boycotted the relatively credible 2006 elections. In 2011, he ended
up coming second in a hard-fought but less credible election, and did
not accept the result, proclaiming himself president in a parallel
swearing in ceremony.

In more recent years, despite living abroad, he again became the
symbolic figurehead of the struggle for democracy, this time over the
defence of the constitution, and particularly its two-term limit for
the president, and the need to organise elections on time in December
2016. They have since been delayed.

This position allowed him to improve cooperation with his fellow
opposition leaders, and in June 2016 he was a driving force behind the
creation of the Rassemblement, combining the forces of several parties
and high-profile figures, including Moïse Katumbi and those in the
“G7” (an umbrella group of opposition parties that left the ruling
majority in 2016), giving the opposition renewed cohesion and
strength.

When Tshisekedi returned to Kinshasa on 27 July 2016 after years of
self-imposed exile, he was greeted by massive crowds, demonstrating
his unique credibility and ability to get people out onto the street.
These were seemingly undamaged by simultaneously being in direct and
secretive talks with Kabila’s governing majority.

As president of the Rassemblement’s “governing council” (Conseil des
sages), Tshisekedi provided legitimacy and political credibility to
the other parties and individuals, most of whom had been part of the
ruling majority or held positions in government. These actors needed
Tshisekedi’s street credibility and popularity as they tried to build
a more pragmatic negotiation strategy. At several moments, tension
within the Rassemblement was palpable as the G7 tried to manage the
unpredictability of the platform’s leader.

After the elections were pushed back by 18 months, a combination of
mounting popular tension and pressure by the international community
led to the signing of the 31 December 2016 global and inclusive
agreement mediated by the Congolese Catholic Church. It called for a
transitional government, a promise that President Kabila will not run
for another term, and elections to be held in 2017. Tshisekedi no
longer had the physical strength to participate in the talks, but his
symbolic importance was underlined when he was appointed as the
president of the critical follow-up committee, the Conseil National de
suivi de l’accord et du processus électoral (CNSA).

The transition process stalls

Tshisekedi left Kinshasa on 24 January as negotiations on the
implementation of the 31 December agreement stalled over several
issues, including the procedure to appoint a new prime minister and
the division of ministerial positions. The lack of progress, in the
context of deepening economic malaise and insecurity in several
provinces, including Tshisekedi’s native Kasai Central, will increase
popular frustrations and tensions.

[Hungry for change: the economics underlying DR Congo’s political crisis]

Tshisekedi had symbolic importance for the population; despite his at
times vainglorious or inflammatory approach, he represented hope of a
better political future. Those now taking over the mantle of political
opposition will find it hard to channel the frustrations of the
population, already deeply sceptical about politicians, into
constructive political engagement. The only moral authority and beacon
of hope at this stage remains the Catholic Church, currently
attempting to resuscitate the agreement it mediated in December.

Before his demise, Tshisekedi’s party had already been struggling with
the succession question. And while some have been pushing for
Tshisekedi’s son Felix to take over, others refuse moves that make the
party seem like a hereditary monarchy, whatever the strength of the
name Tshisekedi. This struggle played out in the broader political
negotiations and disputes over who should become prime minister, with
some pushing for Felix to take that role in the name of the
Rassemblement.

The opposition now faces considerable challenges, especially after the
earlier loss of Charles Mwando Nsimba, the G7’s president and
Rassemblement’s vice-president, who died in December. Moïse Katumbi
would be an obvious choice to take on a more prominent leadership
role. But he is still in a form of exile abroad, pending an eventual
agreement on his judicial prosecution (a sensitive case, that is now,
per the December agreement, managed by the National Episcopal
Conference of Congo [CENCO]). Moreover, while Katumbi has a certain
national popularity, he does not have the political party, political
weight or legitimacy as an opposition leader that Tshisekedi could
command.

[Moïse Katumbi and the Congo’s race for the presidency]

Talks that had been extended for a week by CENCO after the failure to
meet the 28 January deadline are likely to be halted for a while
during the funeral and mourning period. After that, there is an
opportunity for political leaders to work in good faith to implement
the 31 December agreement and to open up political space. But renewed
popular anger will be an increasing challenge as people’s faith in the
political process plumbs new depths.

Hans Hoebeke and Richard Moncrieff are respectively Senior Analyst for
Congo and Central Africa Project Director of International Crisis
Group, the independent conflict prevention organisation.
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One thought on “What does opposition leader Tshisekedi’s death mean
for DR Congo’s road to elections?”

Monte McMurchy says:
February 3, 2017 at 4:09 pm

The death of prominent opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi was
not unexpected, as the past year 2016 witnessed his physical along
with his intellectual degradation in his capacity to articulate with
any degree of disciplined clarity in strength.
Unfortunately, the death of Mr. Tshisekedi now places the
opposition political elements in disarray as the numerous DRC
Political Entities now alas jockey for political power position.
What now is clearly needed in DRC social civic civil publics is an
individual to step up in DRC Publics in speaking ‘truth to power’ to
the DRC Leadership Cadre who seem most reluctant to give up any
perquisites of power inclusive of governance privilege in theft.
The Citizens of DRC are at present most upset and distressed with
the status quo who continue to govern in theft and pillage resulting
in the denial to the citizen resources dedicated in strengthening the
institutions essential for health care along with institutions to
foster education, as a nation is vibrant and strong when the people
are healthy and are provided with the intellectual technical tools
allowing them active positive participation in the national economy.
Unfortunately, the DRC Status Quo Leadership Cadre will be the
beneficiary of Tshisekedi’s death as the opposition unless disciplined
within the ethos of national service will undoubtedly fracture due to
internecine posturing for private party national power influence.
A civic civil political transformation in DRC publics must occur
whereby the national interest is placed above personal interest.
The objective must be that of ensuring National Elections in DRC
by November 2017 as anything else would prove deleterious in DRC
social civic civil cohesion.
The DRC Citizen is restless as the DRC Citizen wish only to
express their voice of discontent to the incumbent Leadership Cadre
via the civic civil social electoral process resulting in ideally a
freely chosen Leadership Cadre who will govern within the ethos of
respecting the ‘social contract’ inclusive in respecting fully the
rule of law.
Etienne Tshisekedi’s political public values to be respected
ordinal should inspire among all the political party factions the
desire to caucus in unison ensuring elections to standard in DRC by
November 2017.