S. Sudan’s secession: Lavrov has unfolded only a part of the story, then what next?

[Elisabeth Janaina]

S. Sudan’s secession: Lavrov has unfolded only a part of the story,
then what next?

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By Hussien Arko Menawi

When Mr Sergey Lavrov the Foreign Minister of Russia has uttered the
unsaid about the conspiracy against the unity of Sudan, many were
taken by surprise, not because of the extent the superpower states
interfered in our policy and damaged the interests of the people of
Sudan but because how Omer al-Bashir the head of the state dares to
sell his own country and people on the international political market.

All Sudanese undoubtedly Aware that the issue of ICC has become a
tremendous pressure on Omer al-Bashir and his NCP party and at the
same time it is a lucrative business for many players on the market of
International politics.

However this shocking statement by the first man of diplomacy in
Russia has raised so many concerns about the future of the remained
Sudan, as long as there are still many areas similar to South Sudan,
their prolonged conflict not addressed, the stick of ICC is still
standing as a threat against the same dictator and the business of
international politics on Sudan not yet closed.

What was heard from the statement of Mr Lavrov can be easily
interpreted in a context of further disintegration of the Sudan which
means that the survival of Omer al-Bashir and his NCP party once again
stands as a vital issue against the unity of Sudan and the scenario of
the South is overshadowing the political arena in the existing Sudan.
The closest interpretation is the separation of Darfur and the two
Areas in a deal similar to what happened in the South, let us
speculate this scenario for the time being as it is the possible one.

From this perspective it also seems there is a ceremony underway for
three other or more newly born states that probably soon emerge from
the womb of crises of the existing Sudan to form a new map within
which visible political entities are Darfur, the two Areas and the
Central and Northern Riverian of Sudan which has been named by Dr
Hamdi as Dongola Kosti Sinnar Triangle. For the Eastern Sudan, the
situation is less predictable but a conflict is likely to break out
over Eastern Sudan and the two powers possibly to interfere are
Eritrea and Ethiopia while the Central Sudan that aspires to be a part
of Pan- Arab will definitely fall under the intimidation of its strong
neighbour in the north if not an easy prey for Egypt.

This scenario is not a coincidence but it is an outcome of accumulated
political, diplomatic and military setbacks. The so-called Islamic
Movement of Sudan, since its coup d’etat has led the country into
successive crises and misfortune political risks at the expense of the
country’s sovereignty and the interest of its people. The experience
of the Gulf war was the beginning of risky political adventures geared
by the Islamic Movement in Sudan. In this war the ,Sudan had paid deep
political and diplomatic price because of political immaturity and
reckless leadership led by Dr Hassan al-Turabi and his disciples such
Ali Osman Taha and his contemporaries in politics who never have had
experiences of running a state apparatus, in particular what has to do
with the intricate art of international relations.

Because of lack of a rational political vision the National Congress
Party has incited the world against the Sudan in a very short time
through its stupid practices and aggressive media. While the
full-scale Jihadist war was going on in the South, not only the people
of Sudan but also the whole world watched how the media was aggressive
at that time. Most of the media discourse seemed as if there was a
declared war against so many countries. Neither US nor the Gulf and
Egypt nor even the neighbouring African countries have been spared by
the tonne of Jihadist threats sent through early morning messages
recited by a zealot military officer called Younis Mahmood.

The events of the Gulf led to the division of the world into alliances
similar to the situation in the Second World War and the natural
consequences were that the loser had to listen to the winner and pay
the costs of its position. Thus Sudan has paid the price of its
supporting the aggression of Saddam against Kuwait in 1990.

Unfortunately the Islamic Movement in Sudan did not benefit from its
mistake of supporting the invasion of Kuwait, instead, it continued
with further adventures that have direct involvement of the NCP
influential figures against International and Regional bodies and
characters. The attempt to assassinate the former president of Egypt
Mr Hosni Mubark resulted in a deeply political, diplomatic and
military conflict between Sudan and Egypt and since then Sudan has
been under the squeeze of almost daily blackmail.

Political fluctuation is the constant quality of the National Congress
Party and following such instability in domestic and international
politics made Sudan pay a heavy price for the survival of the NCP
Regime and its kleptocratic elements. The latest shift of the NCP
Regime from the Iranian pole to the Gulf pole will not be less
damaging than the previous ones as long as all these shifts are not on
basis of equitable relations. The Regime turned to the Gulf pole
because of immense domestic and international pressures and that is
why the Gulf States found this opportunity to use the regime for dirty
roles such as the war in Yemen and Ethio-Egyptian tension.
If we ignore the damage brought by the NCP on Sudan due to its toxic
policy whether the division of Sudan or loss of its territories aside,
the next most awful question is that how much damage Sudan is waiting
for, in the coming period if the NCP Regime continues in the policy of
selling the sovereignty of the Sudan ? The answer to this question may
not require much effort particularly from anyone has the ability to
predict in Sudanese politics and it is not even much difficult to the
ordinary Sudanese but the answers of HOW and WHEN will remain the core
challenge for many of us including the NCP Regime. This is true
because much of the issue or policy in Sudan during the NCP Regime is
purely cultivated from its mistakes by others and unfortunately many
decisions are taken against the interest of the people in Sudan while
decision makers in Khartoum have no any role, this happens because
almost the players know the golden rule of the game which simply taken
on basis of let the Regime in Sudan commits a capital crime and then
to be trapped upon its mistakes.

In fact, the Regime has been dragged like a laboratory rat into a very
risky and lengthy maze route for many times before it has made any
calculation for consequences might result from its policies. It has
been forcefully driven through Naivasha, Cairo, Abuja and Doha and at
each juncture, it was goaded by the policy of stick and carrot. In a
time span of almost three decades, the NCP Regime stepped on many
complications with no necessity. It sponsored international terrorism
and Khartoum has become a shelter of an Islamic terrorism, it
committed genocide in Darfur and the south Sudan. Some of its
influential elements involved in an assassination attempt in Addis
Ababa and overtly sided Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Kuwait? and
in the end each crime ended with shaken consequences of which, the
disintegration of the country, the indictment of the head of the state
and a concession of a piece of land.

Now what is unseen about the future of Sudan not hidden behind the
Regime’s Intelligence services in Khartoum but as Lavrov disclosed in
his press conference, a lot of unsaid about the future of Sudan is
hidden in the White House, the Kremlin, the Elysée, 10 Down Street.
Brussels and maybe in Beijing and what we Sudanese eager to say is
that our ship is navigating hazardous waters with reckless crew and we
thank Mr Lavrov for disclosing this tiny part of the iceberg on the
route but we need to hear more from the White House, 10 Down Street,
the Elysee, Brussels and Beijing.