Confronting Climate Change in South Sudan: Risks and Opportunities

[Elisabeth Janaina]

Confronting Climate Change in South Sudan: Risks and Opportunities

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By Jean-Luc Stalon and Biplove Choudhary

The man made crisis in South Sudan has pushed the country back on
multiple fronts: ranging from an outbreak of a severe macroeconomic
crisis to an unmitigated humanitarian crisis afflicting 7.3 million
people and severe food insecurity impacting an estimated 4.9 million
people across the country. The onset of the mid-December 2013 crisis,
now raging for more than three and a half years, has greatly hampered
agricultural production, disrupted livelihoods and worn out the coping
abilities of communities.

In the context of this multifaceted crisis, there exist several
compelling reasons as to why climate change risks in South Sudan
should be a pressing worry at this point in time for the policy makers
and international partners.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates that in Africa, climate
damages as a percentage of GDP may be 10 percent higher than the next
most exposed region (India) and more than twice that of the United
States, Russia, Eurasia and Latin America. The phenomenon of climate
change transcends regions and boundaries and is bound to affect poor
countries like South Sudan disproportionately despite their having no
role in contributing to global warming. It is at once highly
vulnerable and least prepared to address looming threats
systematically across sectors.

South Sudan has been classified globally as one of the most vulnerable
countries in the world to the negative impacts of climate change.
According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2017, South Sudan
is ranked amongst the five worst performing in the world alongside the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Haiti and
Liberia. Atypically, projections indicate that in South Sudan, global
warming will be felt 2 ½ times more than the global average. Amongst
the channels of transmission, this is expected to exacerbate existing
vulnerabilities, result in extreme climate change-linked weather
events and alter current rainfall patterns, including heightening the
risks of flooding and displacement of people living along the Nile
River.

The agriculture sector further highlights the country’s extreme
vulnerability to climate change shocks. Up to 95 percent of the
livelihoods of the people of South Sudan, or more than 11 million
people, depend on climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture,
forestry resources and fisheries. Anecdotally, seasonal streams are
beginning to dry up, negatively affecting fish yield and fishing
communities in several parts of the country. South Sudan’s strategic
position along the Nile River means fish is an important and prominent
source of protein for people, under the impact of hyperinflationary
pressures many can barely afford the high priced fish in the markets.
Climate change and its impact on fishing will only exasperate this
problem. Drier weather spells are also likely to be an underlying
driver of increased deforestation and resource-based conflicts between
the pastoralists and the farming communities over access to grazing
land.

As the world gears up to confront the threats posed by climate change
and support communities most affected, South Sudan faces a grave risk
of being left behind despite being a signatory to the Paris Agreement.
Mounting evidence across countries and regions show inaction now can
have long-term and potentially irreversible consequences. A case in
point is the Lake Chad region which in relatively short span of fifty
years has shrunk from an area of 25,000 square kilometres to 2,500
square kilometres, affecting nearly 50 million people and turned into
a ‘threat multiplier’ by exacerbating tensions and conflicts in the
communities that live there.
What is the way forward for South Sudan?

Being on the very frontline of climate change linked risks, the
country needs a bold and ambitious international response. AfDB
estimates that more than US$10-20 billion is needed per annum for the
next 10-20 years for climate change adaptation needs in Africa. Global
support and action must include access to a new, adequate and
sustained source of climate change finance and clean technology which
can help communities to adapt, build capacity and strengthen
multi-sectoral domestic preparedness. While a good start, the needs
far outstrip the resources available within the Global Environmental
Facility and the Green Climate Fund. The external financing
imperatives become even more salient given the deep macroeconomic
crisis which has engulfed the country and the lack of fiscal space in
the near term to undertake adaptive measures.

In the absence of credible and sustained finances, as the UNFCCC
argues, adaptation responses will fall short, be limited to being
reactive, humanitarian and relief-oriented, raising the costs of
adaptation in the future and exposing millions of people at risk of
being displaced or affected by increased potential conflicts over
water, food and energy.

Start-up funding and support must target building climate smart
agriculture practices, provision of clean energy solutions to set in
motion a nation-wide process of transformative adaptation. This would
mean the promotion of crop diversification, breeding better-adapted
seeds and livestock, climate-sensitive agriculture extension services,
and sustainable water management across the country for building
self-sufficiency in food and nutrition security.

Research capacities to collect and analyse climate-related data and
feed it into tailored policy responses will help to institute
community adaptive measures and actions, regulate deforestation and
promote sustainable natural resource management practices. These will
help to address the low adaptive capacity in the country.

South Sudan has a historic opportunity to enjoy the latecomer’s
advantage by gleaning lessons from other countries which transitioned
from polluting energy sources to powering economic growth and
delivering jobs through innovative renewable energy solutions. There
is a need to support the functionality of the basic infrastructure of
critical government institutions such as police and prisons, schools
and health facilities as a part of early recovery. Access to
electricity is vital to the smooth running of health facilities
including laboratories for diagnostic tests; refrigeration for cold
chain commodities such as vaccines; emergency obstetric care and basic
information technology services. South Sudan has the potential for
stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) units and possibly for large-scale
solar thermal generation since it experiences in average 10 hours of
sunshine per day per year round. The private sector has a vital role
to play and can draw on replicable successes in South Africa and
Kenya.

Strengthening domestic preparedness on climate change adaptation, and
investing in climate resilient agriculture will be a concrete step
towards building resilient communities. The challenges faced in South
Sudan call for a new way of working by striking a better balance
acting simultaneously on lifesaving, recovery and resilience-building
fronts. This approach lies at the very heart of transformation and
reorienting the country towards a brighter, more sustainable future.

Jean-Luc Stalon is the Senior Deputy Country Director of the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in South Sudan. He is also a PhD
candidate at the Bordeaux (France) Institute of Political Studies on
Political Economy issues. He can be found on Twitter @JLStalon.
Biplove Choudhary is a Senior Advisor for Human Development and
Inclusive Growth at UNDP South Sudan. He can be found on Twitter
@Biplove2000.