Kenya’s whirlwind weekend underscores election uncertainties
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Elisabeth Janaina
Jul 15, 2017, 1:35:17 AM7/15/17
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Kenya’s whirlwind weekend underscores election uncertainties
By Anjli Parrin
July 11, 2017
0
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A series of unrelated but important events the past few days could
have significant repercussions for the tightening race.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's lead in the polls over Raila Odinga has
narrowed from a high of 30 points down to 5. Credit: Xiaojun Deng.
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s lead in the polls over Raila Odinga has
narrowed from a high of 30 points down to 5. Credit: Xiaojun Deng.
Kenya experienced a remarkable, if seemingly coincidental, series of
events this weekend. Nine people were beheaded by suspected al-Shabaab
militants. The Secretary of Internal Security died suddenly. President
Uhuru Kenyatta appeared to accuse the judiciary of meddling in the
elections. And the opposition leader Raila Odinga was briefly
hospitalised.
All just a month before Kenya heads to the polls on 8 August in what
is anticipated to be a tense vote.
These various events were unrelated to one another, but together, they
underscore the immense challenges Kenya faces as the elections
approach. Combatting terrorism, maintaining national security, and
ensuring free, fair and peaceful elections were all likely to prove
difficult. This weekend showed just how difficult they may turn out to
be.
[Kenya’s 2017 elections will be like none before. Here’s why.]
Insecurity on the coast
On Friday night, nine people were beheaded in Jima village in Lamu
County. The attack was brutal, but it was just the latest of a slew of
assaults in the area believed to have been carried out by al-Shabaab.
Two days earlier, the Islamist group killed four officers at the
Pandaguo Police post, about two kilometres from Jima. On 27 June in
Lamu East, eight people died after a police vehicle ran over an
explosive suspected to have been planted by the militants.
In response to the latest attack, the government evacuated villagers
living in the area and imposed a 90-day curfew in parts of Lamu,
Garissa and Tana River counties. On Monday, it announced intensified
air strikes in Boni Forest where militants are believed to be hiding
out.
The response to al-Shabaab has already been a talking point in the
election. Odinga has vowed to withdraw troops from Somalia and
repeatedly criticised the government for failing to curb the domestic
threat. Kenyan troops have been fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia since
2011, and the latest uptick in attacks will likely increase scrutiny
of this intervention in the campaigns.
Nkaissery’s sudden death
The curfew was imposed by Fred Matiang’i, the interim Secretary for
the Internal Security and Coordination, in his first full day on the
job. On Saturday morning, the previous Interior Cabinet Secretary,
Joseph Nkaissery, was pronounced dead after collapsing at his home. An
investigation into his death has been opened, and leaders from all
parties mourned the loss.
Nkaissery was the government’s senior security official and a highly
divisive and powerful figure. He was a general in the armed forces
since the 1970s before joining politics.
As minister, he led Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts. He was in charge
of the response to the Garissa University attack in April 2015 in
which 148 students were killed. Afterwards, he admitted that vital
intelligence was ignored and that security forces failed to
coordinate. Nkaissery also faced criticism for responding
ineffectively to allegations of misconduct and human rights violations
by security forces during subsequent operations.
Nkaissery further courted controversy in December 2015 when he
threatened to arrest journalists making accusations against the
police. The minister was additionally a major figure behind
controversial efforts to repatriate Somali refugees living in Kenya’s
Dadaab camp.
Nkaissery’s death is a major loss to President Kenyatta. It has
created a vacuum in national security as well as within politics among
the Maasai. Nkaissery was the most senior Maasai in government, a
leader within the community, and was considered extremely important to
delivering Maasailand votes for the president. The day before his
death he had been on the campaign trail with Kenyatta, attending a
prayer rally. What his passing means for the incumbent’s campaign
remains to be seen.
Kenyatta attacks judiciary as polls tighten
The event this weekend with perhaps the most long-term effects on the
elections was a decision by the high court and the president’s
subsequent response.
On Friday, the court nullified the tender to print ballot papers,
which had been awarded to a Dubai-based firm. The opposition claimed
that the company has ties to Kenyatta.
In their ruling, the judges did not refer to any such connections, but
stated that “the failure to consult all the presidential candidates
was unfair” and concluded that the Independent Electoral and
Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had not carried out the tender
adequately. The court ordered that the process be restarted.
Both the government and IEBC have said they will appeal the ruling.
But the court’s ruling was also met with escalated rhetoric. At a
rally on Sunday, Kenyatta declared: “I want to tell those in the
courts that because we have respected you for a long time we are not
fools. We cannot accept the courts to be used by those not interested
in the elections to frustrate IEBC.”
Deputy President William Ruto also appeared to accuse Chief Justice
David Maraga, who was only appointed in October, of meddling. This
prompted the judge to respond with a statement that warned: “We in the
Judiciary are open to constructive engagement, including being
criticised. However, when political leaders cast aspersions on the
administration of justice based on a misinterpretation of my
statements, it has the potential to impair public confidence in our
courts.”
The most direct effect of the high court decision is that the election
may be postponed, as it may prove difficult for voting papers to be
printed in time for 8 August. But more worryingly, it may weaken
confidence in both the IEBC and court system.
Mistrust in the courts was an important factor in the deadly 2007/8
election violence. Moreover, after the 2013 elections, Odinga filed a
Supreme Court case against the electoral commission, alleging voter
irregularities and fraud. The Court ruled unanimously that the
election was fair, but questions over the competency of the commission
and legitimacy of the ruling remained, with the Law Society of Kenya
finding faults with the decision.
[Why so tense? Kenya’s high stake elections explained]
Increased fragility
The final dramatic event of the weekend occurred on Sunday night when
the main opposition leader Raila Odinga was hospitalised in Mombasa as
a result of food poisoning. Although the 72-year old presidential
candidate was quick to assure voters he is healthy and “fit as a
fiddle”, a video of him on a gurney circulated in local media, causing
panic. In 2010, Odinga had surgery to remove fluid from his brain, and
the latest episode may raise additional concerns about his health as
the race intensifies.
The latest polls released last week show Kenyatta maintaining a
five-point lead over Odinga. But this gap has narrowed significantly
in recent months from what was once a 30-point gap.
Given how much is at stake, the European Union has warned of possible
clashes, stating that, “it is no secret there are concerns about the
possible outbreak of violence”. In 2007-8, approximately 1,200 people
were killed and 600,000 displaced during post-election violence after
the result was disputed. Communities in some of the hardest hit areas
have yet to reconcile or see justice for crimes committed.
Both Kenyatta and Odinga have recently accused each other of
instigating that inter-ethnic conflict, for which Kenyatta and Ruto
were charged by the International Criminal Court before both cases
were dropped for insufficient evidence.
Human Rights Watch also warned today that ongoing violence,
displacement and insecurity in the Rift Valley could stop thousands of
people from voting.
In this tense environment, this weekend’s events come at a difficult
time. The government’s war of words with the judiciary, Odinga’s
hospitalisation, Nkaissery’s sudden death, and the rise in insecurity
may be unrelated. But they all add to the uncertainty across various
already fragile dimensions of Kenya’s political landscape as crucial
elections approach.
By Anjli Parrin
July 11, 2017
0
Share:
A series of unrelated but important events the past few days could
have significant repercussions for the tightening race.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's lead in the polls over Raila Odinga has
narrowed from a high of 30 points down to 5. Credit: Xiaojun Deng.
President Uhuru Kenyatta’s lead in the polls over Raila Odinga has
narrowed from a high of 30 points down to 5. Credit: Xiaojun Deng.
Kenya experienced a remarkable, if seemingly coincidental, series of
events this weekend. Nine people were beheaded by suspected al-Shabaab
militants. The Secretary of Internal Security died suddenly. President
Uhuru Kenyatta appeared to accuse the judiciary of meddling in the
elections. And the opposition leader Raila Odinga was briefly
hospitalised.
All just a month before Kenya heads to the polls on 8 August in what
is anticipated to be a tense vote.
These various events were unrelated to one another, but together, they
underscore the immense challenges Kenya faces as the elections
approach. Combatting terrorism, maintaining national security, and
ensuring free, fair and peaceful elections were all likely to prove
difficult. This weekend showed just how difficult they may turn out to
be.
[Kenya’s 2017 elections will be like none before. Here’s why.]
Insecurity on the coast
On Friday night, nine people were beheaded in Jima village in Lamu
County. The attack was brutal, but it was just the latest of a slew of
assaults in the area believed to have been carried out by al-Shabaab.
Two days earlier, the Islamist group killed four officers at the
Pandaguo Police post, about two kilometres from Jima. On 27 June in
Lamu East, eight people died after a police vehicle ran over an
explosive suspected to have been planted by the militants.
In response to the latest attack, the government evacuated villagers
living in the area and imposed a 90-day curfew in parts of Lamu,
Garissa and Tana River counties. On Monday, it announced intensified
air strikes in Boni Forest where militants are believed to be hiding
out.
The response to al-Shabaab has already been a talking point in the
election. Odinga has vowed to withdraw troops from Somalia and
repeatedly criticised the government for failing to curb the domestic
threat. Kenyan troops have been fighting al-Shabaab in Somalia since
2011, and the latest uptick in attacks will likely increase scrutiny
of this intervention in the campaigns.
Nkaissery’s sudden death
The curfew was imposed by Fred Matiang’i, the interim Secretary for
the Internal Security and Coordination, in his first full day on the
job. On Saturday morning, the previous Interior Cabinet Secretary,
Joseph Nkaissery, was pronounced dead after collapsing at his home. An
investigation into his death has been opened, and leaders from all
parties mourned the loss.
Nkaissery was the government’s senior security official and a highly
divisive and powerful figure. He was a general in the armed forces
since the 1970s before joining politics.
As minister, he led Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts. He was in charge
of the response to the Garissa University attack in April 2015 in
which 148 students were killed. Afterwards, he admitted that vital
intelligence was ignored and that security forces failed to
coordinate. Nkaissery also faced criticism for responding
ineffectively to allegations of misconduct and human rights violations
by security forces during subsequent operations.
Nkaissery further courted controversy in December 2015 when he
threatened to arrest journalists making accusations against the
police. The minister was additionally a major figure behind
controversial efforts to repatriate Somali refugees living in Kenya’s
Dadaab camp.
Nkaissery’s death is a major loss to President Kenyatta. It has
created a vacuum in national security as well as within politics among
the Maasai. Nkaissery was the most senior Maasai in government, a
leader within the community, and was considered extremely important to
delivering Maasailand votes for the president. The day before his
death he had been on the campaign trail with Kenyatta, attending a
prayer rally. What his passing means for the incumbent’s campaign
remains to be seen.
Kenyatta attacks judiciary as polls tighten
The event this weekend with perhaps the most long-term effects on the
elections was a decision by the high court and the president’s
subsequent response.
On Friday, the court nullified the tender to print ballot papers,
which had been awarded to a Dubai-based firm. The opposition claimed
that the company has ties to Kenyatta.
In their ruling, the judges did not refer to any such connections, but
stated that “the failure to consult all the presidential candidates
was unfair” and concluded that the Independent Electoral and
Boundaries Commission (IEBC) had not carried out the tender
adequately. The court ordered that the process be restarted.
Both the government and IEBC have said they will appeal the ruling.
But the court’s ruling was also met with escalated rhetoric. At a
rally on Sunday, Kenyatta declared: “I want to tell those in the
courts that because we have respected you for a long time we are not
fools. We cannot accept the courts to be used by those not interested
in the elections to frustrate IEBC.”
Deputy President William Ruto also appeared to accuse Chief Justice
David Maraga, who was only appointed in October, of meddling. This
prompted the judge to respond with a statement that warned: “We in the
Judiciary are open to constructive engagement, including being
criticised. However, when political leaders cast aspersions on the
administration of justice based on a misinterpretation of my
statements, it has the potential to impair public confidence in our
courts.”
The most direct effect of the high court decision is that the election
may be postponed, as it may prove difficult for voting papers to be
printed in time for 8 August. But more worryingly, it may weaken
confidence in both the IEBC and court system.
Mistrust in the courts was an important factor in the deadly 2007/8
election violence. Moreover, after the 2013 elections, Odinga filed a
Supreme Court case against the electoral commission, alleging voter
irregularities and fraud. The Court ruled unanimously that the
election was fair, but questions over the competency of the commission
and legitimacy of the ruling remained, with the Law Society of Kenya
finding faults with the decision.
[Why so tense? Kenya’s high stake elections explained]
Increased fragility
The final dramatic event of the weekend occurred on Sunday night when
the main opposition leader Raila Odinga was hospitalised in Mombasa as
a result of food poisoning. Although the 72-year old presidential
candidate was quick to assure voters he is healthy and “fit as a
fiddle”, a video of him on a gurney circulated in local media, causing
panic. In 2010, Odinga had surgery to remove fluid from his brain, and
the latest episode may raise additional concerns about his health as
the race intensifies.
The latest polls released last week show Kenyatta maintaining a
five-point lead over Odinga. But this gap has narrowed significantly
in recent months from what was once a 30-point gap.
Given how much is at stake, the European Union has warned of possible
clashes, stating that, “it is no secret there are concerns about the
possible outbreak of violence”. In 2007-8, approximately 1,200 people
were killed and 600,000 displaced during post-election violence after
the result was disputed. Communities in some of the hardest hit areas
have yet to reconcile or see justice for crimes committed.
Both Kenyatta and Odinga have recently accused each other of
instigating that inter-ethnic conflict, for which Kenyatta and Ruto
were charged by the International Criminal Court before both cases
were dropped for insufficient evidence.
Human Rights Watch also warned today that ongoing violence,
displacement and insecurity in the Rift Valley could stop thousands of
people from voting.
In this tense environment, this weekend’s events come at a difficult
time. The government’s war of words with the judiciary, Odinga’s
hospitalisation, Nkaissery’s sudden death, and the rise in insecurity
may be unrelated. But they all add to the uncertainty across various
already fragile dimensions of Kenya’s political landscape as crucial
elections approach.
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