The Backfire Effect

[Brian Howell]

The backfire effect is the tendency for people to hold onto their beliefs strongly when faced with contradictory evidence: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/. 

Obama released his long form birth certificate, to quell the birthers—including our incoming chief executive. Unfortunately, many birthers refused to see the document as valid; instead it just poured gasoline on their existing fire. (Trump epitomizes this reaction.)

This tendency is a major contributor to the increasing polarization of our electorate and those of many other countries.

It explains why no amount of scientific evidence is going to sway many people on vaccines, climate change, immigrants, welfare recipients, homelessness, taxes, the social safety net, Moslems, Mexicans, other racism and people-of-color, and a myriad of other surprisingly contentious but critical and existential issues.

We now live in a post-facts society. Given our cognitive biases, and especially the backfire effect, is there any hope for democracy? For our—and many other—species? For the planet? Or is it time to throw in the towel and become a doomsday prepper? (He's a prepper, she's a prepper, wouldn't you like to be a prepper, too?)

[David Fetter]

On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 01:33:35PM -0800, Brian Howell wrote:
> The backfire effect is the tendency for people to hold onto their beliefs
> strongly when faced with contradictory
> evidence: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/.

I'd be very interested in whether this is a good signal for what
appears to be at least a partially genetic
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_authoritarianism) trait:
right-wing authoritarianism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_authoritarianism .

Also interesting to ponder: if a DNA test tells whether a person is
likely be vulnerable to authoritarian sales pitches of various kinds,
how do we help them? What interventions have been shown to be
effective?

On the darker side, do we need to protect ourselves from them in some
systematic way? Do we (shudder) need to see about lowering the
reproductive success of those genes?

Best,
David.
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[David Fetter]

On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 02:01:58PM -0800, David Fetter wrote:
> On Wed, Jan 11, 2017 at 01:33:35PM -0800, Brian Howell wrote:
> > The backfire effect is the tendency for people to hold onto their beliefs
> > strongly when faced with contradictory
> > evidence: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/.
>
> I'd be very interested in whether this is a good signal for what
> appears to be at least a partially genetic
> (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_authoritarianism) trait:

Oops. That should read: http://www.sdu.dk/-/media/files/om_sdu/institutter/statskundskab/sidipob/authoritarianism+as+a+personality+trait.pdf

[Dan Robinson]

Interesting stuff.   I think that there is an important part that is missing here though.  The role of institutions and leadership.   The reason that many people continue to believe lies is that they are being repeated over and over again by people who are recognized as being in authority.  If trump, and many, many other republicans had not continued to spread birtherism and give strength to the lie then it would have had fewer adherents and had less power.  However it was politically convenient for the repubs to continue the lie and they did.   Obviously not all repubs.  McCain was very straight forward with his denunciations and that had resonance, at least until he chose palin as his running mate.

"Fake News" is simply a form of propaganda, propaganda is simply the use of information to convince and manipulate.  In and of itself it is not a good or bad thing and virtually every modern institution engages in propaganda.  However "Fake News" or the repetition of lies in service of propaganda is extremely dangerous.  The Nazi party was very good at it - but there are many, many examples, up to, and including the case for going to war in Iraq and more recently the attack on Obamacare.  It has been used to great effect in small third world countries and modern first world democracies.  In the U.S. it has most notably been used to draw distinctions and whip up frenzy against foreign adversaries - but it has also been used here to suppress political opposition and to create internal scapegoats.

We have *always* lived in a society where good information and bad information has battled.  We are seeing a particularly nasty period right now and I lay most of the blame for it's severity directly at the feet of the repubs who have systematically warred with the truth because it didn't fit their agenda (and also because, from a purely competitive viewpoint, they know that any voter who is not polarized they cannot count on - and if two antagonists agree on a fact then an issue can't be polarized).

The repubs have been very successful in waging their struggle.  However at the same time they've undermined their own institution as well as our national institutions.  This was very easy to see with the Tea Party and now drumpf stepped into a vacuum and we are where we are now.

I hear you about being a prepper.  I had a conversation with a life long liberal the other day and he was musing that it might be a good idea to buy an AR15.  I've also found my mind wandering in those woods recently.  I suspect we are not alone in any respect.   This is quite clearly a reflection of the psychological instability that has been created in our current society.  But this isn't a new history - it is simply an old one that is being tried out by the folks who have power.   We're going to have a front row seat to see how it turns out.

Dan

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[Scott Hotes]

Is it possible to think rationally and still be opposed to Obamacare?  Or is the argument

that if you are opposed to Obamacare one or more of the following must be true:

  a. You have been brainwashed by the repetition of lies coming from the Republican Party.

  b. You have a genetic predisposition to authoritarianism (in this case perpetuated by the

      Republican Party).

  c. You have succumbed to the "backfire effect", and in the face of overwhelming "good

      information", and have stuck to believing in the "bad information".

Of course I think that that's all hogwash.  If fact there are rational arguments that can be

made against Obamacare, and against an ever-enlarging federal government.  I'm not

saying they are "right", and Obamacare is "wrong", I'm simply suggesting that rational

arguments can be made, and that, like many/most policy questions, there is no hard and

fast right and wrong.

I believe progressives give up too much ground, and do themselves a disservice, when 

they attempt to demonize the opposition.  Suggesting their thinking could be linked to

genetic defects, or linking their tactics to the Nazi Party are two good examples of this.

BTW, I completely agree that Trump's populist strategy allowed him to "whip up frenzy"

against convenient scapegoats, but as long as we're looking back here, what about what

Hillary and the DNC did in tearing up Bernie's run for the presidency?  How democratic

was that?  Or the machinations she and the DNC pulled in keeping Lessig out of the

debates?

In my mind, the right way forward is to avoid demonizing the other guy, and to focus on

the problem, which I believe starts with the influence of money in politics, and in particular

the Congress.  I believe Lessig brings the point home clearly in his book "Republic, Lost".  

If we fix that, we have some hope of salvaging what we have.

Scott

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"The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted."

  - James Madison

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