Brian Howell
Jul 5, 2015, 5:59:41 PM7/5/15
to Ipse-...@googlegroups.com
According to an article I read, oxi is Greek for no. And that's what the Greek people voted today in their referendum: no to being strong armed, no to being starved, no to further privations, and economically debilitating austerity, as demanded by Britain, France and especially Germany. Krugman thinks that the outcome is a very good thing. I do, too, of course, being a Keynesian.
Scott Hotes
Jul 20, 2015, 5:40:26 PM7/20/15
to Brian Howell, Ipse Dixit
On Sun, Jul 5, 2015 at 2:59 PM, Brian Howell <bdho...@gmail.com> wrote:
According to an article I read, oxi is Greek for no. And that's what the Greek people voted today in their referendum: no to being strong armed, no to being starved, no to further privations, and economically debilitating austerity, as demanded by Britain, France and especially Germany. Krugman thinks that the outcome is a very good thing. I do, too, of course, being a Keynesian.
Are you standing by this position? Now that Greece has voted "no" but gone on to
agree to a deal with *worse* terms, it's not clear this was the right strategy. Even
Krugman appears to be backpedaling:
Krugman on assuming that Greece had an exit plan from the Euro: “…it didn’t even occur to me that they would be prepared to make a stand without having done any contingency planning ...amazingly - they thought they could simply demand better terms without having any backup plan. So certainly this is a shock. But, you know, in some sense, it’s hopeless in any case. …it’s not as if the terms that they were being offered before were feasible. I mean, the new terms are even worse, but the terms they were being offered before were still not going to work. So I, you know, I may have overestimated the competence of the Greek government.”
Scott
jack saunders
Jul 20, 2015, 6:29:10 PM7/20/15
to Scott Hotes, Brian Howell, Ipse Dixit
No means no -- when it comes from the head Greek, when it comes from the Greek people.....when it comes from Angela Merkel.
Then we show cards and count whose hand is highest.
Tsipras drew to an inside straight. She put down four aces.
Brian Howell
Jul 22, 2015, 5:33:02 PM7/22/15
to Ipse Dixit, jack...@pacbell.net, sah...@gmail.com, jack...@pacbell.net
Well said, Jack.
Voting is one thing. Fiscal realities are another.
Very often, strategies do not have determinate outcomes.
Scott Hotes
Jul 22, 2015, 6:01:24 PM7/22/15
to Brian Howell, Ipse Dixit, jack saunders
On Wed, Jul 22, 2015 at 2:33 PM, Brian Howell <bdho...@gmail.com> wrote:
Well said, Jack.Voting is one thing. Fiscal realities are another.Very often, strategies do not have determinate outcomes.
Trying not to top-post here... :)
I'm not 100% sure what the point was here, but the point I was trying to make is
this: it's not clear that either Krugman or the Syriza party have served the people
of Greece well. I'm all in favor of a nation standing up for its rights as an independent
entity, but I don't believe that extends to walking away from existing loans and
bailouts, and then turning around and asking for more. If as a people you believe
you would be better off going it alone, then fine, that is your right, but you can't have
it both ways. See for example:
Voters chose Syriza because it promised to reverse reforms, particularly of pensions and labor laws, demanded by creditors, and to resist new demands for rationality. Tsipras immediately vowed to rehire 12,000 government employees. His shrillness increasing as his options contract, he says the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund are trying to “humiliate” Greece.
How could one humiliate a nation that chooses governments committed to Rumpelstiltskin economics, the belief that the straw of government largesse can be spun into the gold of national wealth? Tsipras’s approach to mollifying those who hold his nation’s fate in their hands is to say they must respect his “mandate” to resist them. He thinks Greek voters, by making delusional promises to themselves, obligate other European taxpayers to fund them. Tsipras, who says the creditors are “pillaging” Greece, is trying to pillage his local governments, which are resisting his extralegal demands that they send him their cash reserves.
Brian Howell
Jul 27, 2015, 11:25:23 AM7/27/15
to Ipse Dixit, sah...@gmail.com, sah...@gmail.com
We're talking across purposes, Scott.
I generally disagree with George F. Will.
The loans and bailouts provided to Greece the first time around were insufficient and left it in a wounded position from which fiscal recovery was significantly impaired. A down economy must be able to generate reasonably paying jobs and enable sufficient internal spending, consumer, business, and government, in order to reinvigorate. That's basic demand-side economics. Austerity is therefore counterproductive. That's why, after World War II, more than two dozen countries—including Greece—forgave the FDR many billions of Deutschmarks; payments on the balance were stretched to thirty years, and to be made only when there was a trade surplus. And even then, only at a maximum rate of 3% per annum.
Even four years ago, economists were critical of the first round of bailouts (if you can call them that) for Greece. Since then, according to U.S. News and World Report, "Despite years of budget cuts, Greece's debt burden is higher than when its bailout began in 2010 — over 300 billion euros ($332 billion), or 180 percent of annual GDP — because the economy has shrunk by a quarter." At present, The Guardian reports, Greece has 26% unemployment, 30% of its citizens living below the poverty line, and 17% unable to meet their basic nutrition needs. Those numbers are on par, or exceed, as with unemployment, the parameters of the Great Depression in the United States. And the Eurozone is forcing Greece to increase its austerity measures, making it more difficult for Greece to create jobs?
As to my previous post, Scott, I was paraphrasing Jack: just because Greece's "no" vote failed does not mean that it was an improper or incorrect approach. Put another way, because a strategy fails does not mean it wasn't a good idea; outcomes cannot always be predicted. It's always easy to analyze in retrospect.
Scott Hotes
Jul 29, 2015, 8:29:12 AM7/29/15
to Brian Howell, Ipse Dixit
On Jul 27, 2015 11:25 AM, "Brian Howell" <bdho...@gmail.com> wrote:
The loans and bailouts provided to Greece the first time around were insufficient and left it in a wounded position from which fiscal recovery was significantly impaired. A down economy must be able to generate reasonably paying jobs and enable sufficient internal spending, consumer, business, and government, in order to reinvigorate. That's basic demand-side economics. Austerity is therefore counterproductive. That's why, after World War II, more than two dozen countries—including Greece—forgave the FDR many billions of Deutschmarks; payments on the balance were stretched to thirty years, and to be made only when there was a trade surplus. And even then, only at a maximum rate of 3% per annum.
Obviously there are a lot of moving parts here. I don't disagree that austerity measures in many cases have been shown to be devastating, for example I read Krugman tooting his own horn on this on Friday. But there is more to the story here. Greece has a long track record of not following through on promises to reform. They have cooked their books repeatedly, and with other struggling countries (like Italy and Portugal) that have willingly instituted constructive change in exchange for support, Greece now announces that no, they will not pay on the 2010 IMF loan and markets, and the EU have simply lost confidence. See for example:
http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/anil.kashyap/research/papers/A-Primer-on-the-Greek-Crisis_june29.pdf
As a partner in the EU, Greece has simply been a bad actor. It's not in their hands any more whether or not they will need to accept austerity to survive. The proverbial chicken has come home to roost.
For the record, I *am* a fan of Che Guevara, a name that comes up a lot in these stories WRT the new Greek government, but there is no real comparison here to the efforts of Guevara back in the 50s/60s. Greece is not a country controlled by outside wealthy financial interests wresting back local control. They willingly entered into agreements to join the EU, and cooked their books to get there, now they do not want carry their fare share, they want to hold on to out-sized entitlements, at the hands of other hurting member countries. In some ways the opposite of what Guevara was fighting for.
Scott
julian kaye
Jul 31, 2015, 11:35:17 AM7/31/15
to Ipse Dixit, bdho...@gmail.com
Bargaining fallout
jack saunders
Jul 31, 2015, 12:23:24 PM7/31/15
to julian kaye, Ipse Dixit, bdho...@gmail.com
Chillingly true. Pakistan and India are rivals in everything, yet as seen from the White House, both are too big to fail.
There would be no skimping if either should plunge into financial peril.
Half the Greeks can go dumpster diving for the next 10 years and nothing uncontrollable will happen.
Just a lot of rich Greeks coming here. Easy to manage.
But just the thought of Pakistan falling apart would move boatloads of cash without end.
From: julian kaye <juliank...@gmail.com>
To: Ipse Dixit <Ipse-...@googlegroups.com>
Cc: bdho...@gmail.com
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2015 8:35 AM
Subject: [Ipse Dixit] Re: Oxi!
Bargaining fallout
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