Implications of Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise and the Erosion Disaster at the Outer Banks - An Anecdotal Report
Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas
This email is about an observation I have been building for some time with my sea level rise filmwork. It is quite simple and elegant, but mostly overlooked in focused academic work. Our trip to the Outer Banks in October amidst the erosion disaster where 16 beach homes were lost to a series of high tide events, has driven home this observation that; the most vulnerable are the first affected by increasing warming impacts, then the less vulnerable. NOAA's work by Sweet et al, and the interpretations by the Union of Concerned Scientists do delve deeply into this "most vulnerable/less vulnerable" philosophy with sea level rise and I think that in general, this concept applies to most Earth systems.
With the Outer Banks erosion, 50 homes were lost from 1970 to 2022, mostly during significant tropical events. Since 2022, 27 homes have been lost, with 16 in September and October of 2025. These have mostly been from non-major tropical events. This year in September and October, an early and strong nor' easter, combined with a peak King Tide pulse to ravage the community of Buxton on Hatteras Island. This compound event was preceded by hurricanes Humberto and Imelda (fish hurricanes) that stayed far offshore, but sent big eroding waves to the Banks. Interestingly, the community of Rodanthe just up the coast north about 25 miles, that was ravaged last year, was largely spared as this fall, with conditions that were mostly depositional with only two homes lost and about 10 feet of sand deposited at the high tide line.
The image below, and the time I spent at this location with an interview with Betsy Rosenberg, is what has inspired me to make this report to you all. What is not visible in this image of course are the more than a dozen homes that were lost. Debris were rapidly cleaned up by private and National Park Services' forces during low tides. About 25 homes were completely surrounded by surf at high tide, with another 25 half in, half out of the surf above the wave runup elevation. Two- to three hundred feet of Hatteras island were eroded this year in this area with a history of strong erosion, but historic events were nothing like what happened this year. Because there was no major tropical event involved, I think this illustrates the most vulnerable/less vulnerable concept of impacts with climate warming.
There are far, far more structures in the less vulnerable areas that are in the path of future erosion events. Accelerating sea level rise increases risks to these areas. The warming jump of 2023 and 24 increases risks. The ocean feedbacks that have created 10 mm of sea level rise per year from The Banks south and West to the western Gulf of Mexico increases risks. And, the reality that a little bit of further sea level rise nonlinearly increasing the impacted distance inland increases risks. It's not just The Banks that are implicated with this "most vulnerable/less vulnerable impact concept." The U.S. in particular, with 2,500 miles of low-slope barrier islands in the path of the recent 10 mm per year rise rate acceleration, are particularly at risk, but globally, low elevation coastal areas are on deck awaiting their individual extreme events to create far more impacts in less vulnerable areas than we have seen already in the most vulnerable areas.
Here's my interview from the location in image below. I am still
entering Instagram filming logs from the trip and have just
started on The Banks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9C1HqsUdlu0
Betsy is phenomenal and prolific interviewer and many on this list have been her subjects that add to her over 1,500 interviews with big names like Al, Hansen, Bernie, Hayhoe, McKibben and more ... She needs subscribers and likes with her new Code Green Channel, so please consider subscribing. Betsy is a great ally in our work and the sooner we can help her go viral, the better our world will be.
Steep trails,
MeltOn
Subscribe to her Code Green Interviews
Buxton, Outer Banks, North Carolina, Hatteras Island, October 16,
2025 (While many of you were in mid-Global Heating Emergency
Conference, I was once again in the middle of a global heating
emergency.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9C1HqsUdlu0
Bruce Melton PE
Director, Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
President, Melton Engineering Services Austin
8103 Kirkham Drive
Austin, Texas 78736
(512)799-7998
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Sent: December 2, 2025 10:51 AM
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Subject: [CDR] Implications of Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise and the Erosion Disaster at the Outer Banks - An Anecdotal Report
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