Bridging the divide: How unequal carbon dioxide removal deployment threatens climate equity and global mitigation feasibility

[Geoengineering News]

‎https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352550925001897

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Authors: Raphael Apeaning, Puneet Kamboj, Mohamad Issa Hejazi 

09 October 2025

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2025.09.012

Abstract

The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C, ideally 1.5 °C, places significant emphasis on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies. However, the global landscape for CDR deployment remains uneven, with significant disparities in technological capacity, economic readiness, and regional ambition. This study investigates how limited access to CDR technologies could exacerbate global economic inequality under a 1.5 °C pathway. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM v6.0), six scenarios ranging from unrestricted CDR availability to constrained deployment are evaluated. Our findings reveal that constrained CDR availability significantly increases median global carbon prices, rising from $588/tCO2 under the full CDR portfolio scenario to $937/tCO2 by 2055 in the most restrictive scenario. By 2100, some regions face prices exceeding $3000/tCO2, underscoring stark regional inequalities. These elevated carbon prices could deepen economic disparities—particularly in developing nations and fossil fuel-dependent economies. Furthermore, constrained CDR availability could also amplify inequalities in energy and food security, disproportionately affecting poorer regions. The study underscores the need for equitable CDR access to support a just global transition to a low-carbon future, offering valuable insights for policymakers designing more equitable climate strategies.

Source: ScienceDirect 

[steve.rackley]

This paper, in concluding that “by 2100, some regions face prices exceeding $3000/tCO₂” due to constrained regional CDR deployment/availability, seems to be based on the ludicrous premise that carbon markets will be regionally separated in 2100. (Or perhaps the authors imagine that there are isolated regional carbon cycles?)

Given the origin, it seems to be just one more example of striving for a negative headline (thence to be perpetually quoted and misquoted) based on unreasonable assumptions or unrealistic experimental design.

Excuse my cynicism; happy to be corrected.

[Dan Miller]

Yes, it makes no sense.

By 2100, we will either be removing 10s of gigatons of CO2 each year (on our way back to 280 ppm) or temperatures will be >3ºC which is “not compatible with an organized global community”.

If we are doing 10s of gigatons/year, that is a factor of 1,000,000X to 10,000,000X more than we are doing now. Taking into account Swansons Law, cost per ton of CDR will be well below $100.  Since CO2 is a well mixed gas, CDR can take place wherever it is easiest and cheapest.

Dan

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[Wil Burns]

Since I know the authors, I'd say with confidence that's not their motivation. You may not agree with their conclusions, all good, but let's be careful about impugning the motives of people in our community without any evidence. wil

 

Wil Burns 

Co-Director, Institute for Responsible Carbon Removal, American University 

Mobile: 312.550.3079

Email: wbu...@american.edu 

https://www.american.edu/sis/centers/carbon-removal  

Fancy a conversation? Click here to schedule via my Calendly site (phone call, Zoom, and Microsoft Team options): https://calendly.com/wil_burns 

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From: carbondiox...@googlegroups.com <carbondiox...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of steve.rackley <steve....@gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 18, 2025 1:01 PM
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Subject: [CDR] Re: Bridging the divide: How unequal carbon dioxide removal deployment threatens climate equity and global mitigation feasibility