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I think the limit is around 950 km given the altitude of most commercial flights. That requires both stations to have a zero degree horizon and a generally good station. Sonoma County has gotten into or spotted Washington state.
Yes, it's useful to watch PlaneFinder or FlightAware and plan around scheduled/indicated flights. This mechanism also appears useful from 6m through microwave, given capable stations. It appears that it has been exploited for years on 1296 between N and S California SSB nets where stations had largish antennas and power. WSPR reduces those requirements a lot.
Large commercial aircraft appear to have on the order of 1000 m^2 cross section, if I'm remembering correctly. Using this it is possible to predict signal strength and thus station requirements but without doing that, simply having reasonably good stations with low horizons things work very well.
As K6KGE said, we have done this for years up/down the CA central valley, rain or shine...
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