Hi Peter,
Short answer : since the New York Times article and related material (including interviews with one of the relevant pilots) it looks like we have at least some reassurance that the video is genuine. At the moment, a claim has been made on the To The Stars website that their video "comes with essential chain-of-custody documentation" but that documentation does not appear to be available on that website. Once that is provided, the first of several hurdles will have been overcome and attention can then turn to analysis of the video and related evidence.
Long answer : Since you, and a couple of others, have asked similar questions I'll post a bit of a chronology of the public discussion of this video in case it helps-
In 2007, someone with the username "thefinaltheory" posted the Nimitz video on ATS in a thread entitled "Fighter Jet UFO Footage: The Real Deal" at the link below:
His post included the following link to the video (which can still be retrieved using the Wayback Machine's Internet Archive):
I pointed out that this was the website of a group of German film students with an interest in creating footage with lots of special effects - including computer generated spaceships. My post is at the link below, included the following: "Conclusion : Pending release of the promised further "files", this video should be tentatively identified as an attempted hoax on ATS by members of the "vision-unlimited" group of German student film makers.":
The person posting about the video on ATS denied that he was a member of that group of film students and claimed that the video was uploaded to their website because it was more secure than websites in the USA. (That didn't make much sense to me then. It still doesn't).
I repeatedly asked (in that thread and in private messages) for the person that started that discussion to provide further evidence. I didn't get any response to my messages. The person that started the discussion was eventually banned by a moderator on ATS (not me) for apparently posting under multiple different usernames.
I posted a brief summary (based on my post above) on the EuroUFO email List in 2007. No one disagreed with my tentative view at that time.
I also emailed the German group of students for comment in 2007. I didn't get any reply from that group in 2007. I tried again in 2008 and did get a response that time. I was told by the head of that group that he didn't know how the footage got on their server (which did little to satisfy my doubts).
The video was subsequently posted on Youtube at:
That Youtube link was posted on the Project 1947 email discussion List and the EuroUFO discussion List in 2008. There wasn't much discussion of it.
I can't find a copy of it, but a very well-known UFO researcher (who may prefer to stay out of this) started another discussion about the video on the EuroUFO list. Since I can't find it, I can't be sure when this was. That researcher stating that he had been informed of the footage by (from memory) an unnamed military source. I asked for clarification of that source but didn't get any answer.
Things then went quiet.
More recently, (in March 2015 I think) Paco Chierici published an article about the Nimitz sighting which mentioned one of the pilots by name (Dave Fravor) and referred to the video footage:
So, about 8 years after I asked for it, at that point there was more information/evidence available - although at that point it still wasn't completely clear that the footage being mentioned was the same as that posted online in 2007.
Obviously, the incident was given a major boost in publicity by the Tom Delonge online event in October 2017.
At that point, I reposted on Facebook some of the material I'd outlined in 2007. I referred to the connections to the website of German film students interested in special effects and commented:
"This doesn't (and didn't) necessarily mean that the footage was a hoax but I found it rather interesting and, in the absence of the promised further confirmation/evidence, in 2007 I was inclined to reach the tentative conclusion that it was a hoax (while repeatedly requesting the promised further evidence that it was genuine). I find it very interesting that the current rounds of discussion seem to ignore the provenance of the footage and don't mention that the footage was sourced from the website of several German film students interested in creating science fiction material".
https://www.facebook.com/isaac.koi/posts/10209545388181187
In a discussion at this point, Robert Sheaffer posted on Facebook : "Just because the video was on their site does not mean they created it. Note that the directory it is in is called "extern," presumably files obtained from elsewhere":
https://www.facebook.com/groups/ufoupdates/permalink/10154856842976790/?comment_id=10154862795001790&reply_comment_id=10154863116761790&comment_tracking=%7B"tn"%3A"R9"%7D
Some reporter contacted me in or around early November 2007 about using my material "debunking" (his term, not mine) this video. I said they could use anything I've posted but that I didn't claim to have debunked this video. (There are dozens of videos where I would say that, but this isn't one of them). I stressed that I hadn't "debunked" this video but merely pointed to some red flags that meant that further evidence was important and that my "_tentative_" conclusion in 2007 was that it was a hoax pending further information/evidence. Some of this was quoted in the Fox5 article at:
Of course, since the New York Times article and related material (including interviews with one of the relevant pilots) it looks like we have at least some reassurance that the video is genuine. At the moment, a claim has been made on the To The Stars website that their video "comes with essential chain-of-custody documentation" but that documentation does not appear to be available on that website. Once that is provided, the first of several hurdles will have been overcome and attention can then turn to analysis of the video and related evidence.
All the best,
Isaac