Tiddlywiki and Coronavirus

[Mohammad]

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.  

See:

1. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus 
2. Information about COVID-19 in #GoogleCrisisResponse https://g.co/kgs/EiNSbt
3. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

This is a dangerous threat to the whole world. After China, South Korea, Italy and Iran have the highest number of active cases!

See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries for live updates on number of infected by country!

Tiddlywiki can be used to create simple advise sheets (pamphlets) to be distributed through emails or WhatsApp.

Images, Videos, PDFs, can be put in a single file and send out. Step by step instructions simply can be implemented in Tiddlywiki. 

Protocols with search features and hyperlinks can be quickly prepared in Tiddlywiki.

I have prepared some copy of how to protect yourself from Guardian the Guardian here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/25/how-to-protect-yourself-from-coronavirus

Coronavirus teaches one important lesson: We (all human beings) are in the same boat! Forget color, race, religion, country border, ... we need to be kind to each other

and only with public efforts we can take over this dangerous threat!

--Mohammad

[David Gifford]

Amen.

[Xabriña]

Hi everyone.

I usually read you often to learn, but rarely have I participated in the forum. However, on this occasion I consider that I must pronounce myself after reading Mohammad's message that I subscribe 100%.

In this world where everything is so interconnected, in which we can travel from one end of the planet to the other, a disease like CoV can do a lot of damage. On the one hand we have people who get sick as a result of the virus and on the other hand the episodes of panic that are occurring in various parts of the planet. Shortage of food, masks, etc ... Hopefully everything remains in a scare and ends soon.

Here in Spain there have already been the first cases of infected, the first were from people who had been in the affected areas of Italy, but today they are already appearing in people who have not traveled abroad ...

And I totally agree with TiddlyTweeter. If the virus mutates as it happened with the badly called Spanish Flu, which did not originate in Spain, the thing would get very bad. The mortality rate of those infected ranged between 10% and 20%. The 1918 flu spread rapidly and killed 25 million people in the first six months alone. In total, about 500 million people became ill, one third of the world's population at that time. This death toll meant that almost 3% of the world's population died.

Although as with all things we have to take into account the context in which everything happened, the First World War with its consequences and still precarious health systems.

Hopefully this time things don't get so ugly.

Greetings.

[Julio Peña]

Hopefully this time things don't get so ugly.

Let's pray it doesn't.

Best wishes,

Julio 

[TonyM]

So true,

We are so numerous in numbers, us Humans, that we are a large body of "meat" ready to be colonised on any part of our surface, not to mention consumption and domestication of animals. Shure hygiene etc... reduces the incidence but as soon as a microbe or bacterium gets past those barriers and enters the mass of humanity, we are all at risk. In some ways this is how HIV succeeded, it found a way to infect without symptoms immediately appearing (A delay of up to 10 years in some cases). 

• You could say we have a very large "attack surface".
• This does show us the value of virtual communities :) I am unlikely to catch COVID-19 from any of you lot.
• Tiddlywiki is ideal for this guidance in a file. I did one for the sustainable development goals as an exercise. In a real crisis the internet may be compromised thus a website in a file is ideal.

But as Mohammad points out this experience should "humble us", as most religions and other belief systems ask us, we are all cousins and in this together, here in a finite "spaceship earth".

Regards

Tony

[Mohammad]

Hi Xabrina,

 Thank you for your words!

Unfortunately according to WHO, Coronavirus is spreading and will affect many countries. I really hope with a good collaboration between governments and the public help, World can defeat Corona!

The latest statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

--Mohammad

[A Gloom]

kudos to Xabrina for bringing up the pandemic of 1918-- very astute-- the benchmark to compare others to

personally-- I may be human, but I'm not really part of its society-- "But I strode on austere.  No hope could have no fear," pretty much sums it up

but duty is a hard habit to kick so I salute Mohammad on this, I would be doing the same

and now of think of it, if I was still working I would be using and promoting the use of TW not just for citizens in matters of public safety 

(TW could be a part of the emergency plan the government here promotes for disaster preparedness)

but also for puclic safety/emergency preparedness agencies/organizations and their workers

An important issue is the portability of TW-- it doesn't have to be online (Internet & cellular access gets interupted during natural disasters) or on drive but can be on USB sticks so your emergency instructions/plan can be accessible on tablet without power grid or Internet/cell access.

One thing ppl should be aware of that the virus may not be deadly to the non-elderly, that doesn't lessen the threat, anyone exposed increases the spread which becomes exponential.  Among those at the most risk would be incividuals om medications that suppress the immune system-- those medications have become quite common now.

[A Gloom]

I shall play advocatus diaboli

 

Definitely true. BUT our commune in Italy delivered in the postbox a pamphlet yesterday about precautions with the virus.

TW could be delivered via USB external memory devices or CD/DVD-- in this country, more of a change someone paying attention to such than a pamphlet which would be ignored like junk mail.

 

So WHAT would be the added value of TW unless thousands can find it on quick search?

Internet may not always be available-- especially if unrest is involved-- the plug on the Internet may get pulled-- Iran, Kashmir, China, Arab Spring...

and Internet search results can lead to the wrong sources...

and would ppl select sources from social media and pop culture icons over authoritative sources... I don't know if you noticed the growing distrust in instittutions by the general public?

 

and a TW for CoV could be easily be passed around with or without the Internet

I could see its relevance IF an EXPERT in coronaviris made a TW about it. As a public announcement system it seems a dead duck.

see point above-- you may be fooling yourself if you think an expert would make ppl listen more-- experts would just be needed initiately to ensure the info is accurate but social engineering would be needed to spread it-- pop cultrure icons and outlets, social media so ppl will spread it for you just like their spreading the virus-- a new approach to goin viral

perhaps reverse psychiatry-- the government don't want you to read it-- everyone will read it then : P

[Mohammad]

Hi Josiah,

 Very bad news. Here in Tehran schools and universities are closed and will remain closed for next few weeks!

 Everywhere is closed or semi-closed! There is shortage for masks, gloves, and disinfectants.

 This is a disaster! 

 Have you read the book https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eyes_of_Darkness?

 Strangely the novel explains a similar story like coronavisus in Wuhan China.

 The Wikipedia page described the virus name was Gorki-400 where in the reprint in 1989 changed to Wuhan-400.

 

--Mohammad

On Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 4:21:54 PM UTC+3:30, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

Ciao Gloom, Devil's Plaintiff,

As the coronavirus takes grip in Italy, now, in my immediate area...

Issues locally are ...

-- Death rate in Italy are looking High (higher than Iran) mainly because people live very long in Italy; and birth rate is low... result is Higher mortality in vulnerable aged populations.

-- All schools are closed to the middle of month.

-- Many towns in Lombardy are on lock-down under virtual martial law. Economically that is a disaster as the North is the centre of net production Italy.

-- The virus is fulminate, but largely silent, for most infected recover without a beep. Detection is a cornerstone that is likely already uncontrolled (not sure).

Some broader issue are ...

-- Is Italy just detecting it better than the rest of Western Europe? Italy started screening & sequestration early.

-- Is the virus so dispersed yet it is unstoppable? Detection is difficult because you can't test everyone. Most people don't display marked symptoms.

-- Would it be better to switch from sequestration resourcing to palliative care? Let the society continue economic activity regardless?

I'd say the issue with your alternative advocacy is simply exposure, reach. One needs more than a TW. One needs a way to get it read.

Best wishes

TT

[Julio Peña]

Hello TT and all,

Yes, I have been following closely and it real crazy what's happening out there.

Hopefully things will subside soon, God willing. :(

Blessings,

Julio

[Mohammad]

Yes, I was just watching the current Italy situation from BBC. We are the same, but most state offices are open with 1/3 of personnel from 8-13.

Universities and schools are closed by mid April 2020.

The bad news is we have on March 21st our Persian new year (exactly the first day of Spring) but with current situation we cannot visit our family and have no ceremony!

All the time TV and Radio encourage people to stay at home. We got 100GB free internet for next two weeks (funny!)

Some school classes are broadcasting from TV. Universities uses Moodle or similar tool (like Adobe Connect) to have their virtual classes.

Masks, gloves, and other protective stuffs are not in the market! Hopefully fruits, vegetables, ... can be purchased easily from bazaar.

There is a tough situation. We have several death among doctors, nurses, other medical staff.

...

--Mohammad

[Julio Peña]

Oh wow...my prayers for both your countries!

[A Gloom]

They are doing an preemptive closing of schools (for disinfecting it seems) as the cases start increasing in my area...

i'm watching in a mixture of habitual interest (if I was still working, I would be in the thick of it-- my profession was to protect society and my fellow citizens) and detached indifference (don't feel like a part of society and I'm just lingering)-- but I won't have to watch people suffer and die-- my rage against the dying of the light is spent and the Gods, Sumpreme Beings and the Universe were indifferent to my protests-- and perhaps fatalism, I may be relieved of my burdens

As someone that had to try to carry out emergency measures-- I think Mohammad's initial idea was good but perhaps not rely solely on people finding it online but use "grassroots" dissemination-- people are more likely to listen to family, friends, pop culture than authority figures.

As for official action, I weigh in on reverse quarantine-- isolate (to protect) the vulenerible parts of society while the virus runs its inevitable course (there's not realistic detection and therefor tracking of the virus' spread to be able to contain it).  One of the first places the virus hit in the US was a nursing home and it was like throwing gasoline on a fire.

[TonyM]

Folks, especially TT/Josiah and Mohamad who are in hot spots;

I am keeping an eye on local and international infections and concerned for my Tiddlywiki colleagues.

The numbers in Australia is relatively low but most are coming to assume the virus will reach everywhere eventually, as I understand it a key objective is to protect the vulnerable, delay transmissions so as to not overwhelm the services needed to respond, and potentially find treatments and a vaccine before everyone catches it. 

Those with an interest in disease have being waiting for such a virus to appear, in many ways it was inevitable, let us hope it is not a quickly evolving one, so that vaccines can be developed.

I wonder how the world will change as a result of this, already we are using social distance, not kissing/shaking hands, will this remain after this passes?. But more people working from home. Lets hope there are silver linings to this potential tragedy for many. The current death rates means many of us are likely to come to know at least one person who is likely to die from this virus. 

Best wishes to all, look after yourself, loved ones and even strangers, if you can.

Regards

Tony

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 4:47:28 AM UTC+11, Mohammad wrote:

[Birthe C]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark#March_public_sector_lockdown

It will take time to develop and test vaccine. Can enough be produced and distributed?

After enormous economic loses, will we still be able to afford it.? Really a big part of a population will have to get it if we hope to stop the virus.

Hope the best for all of you,

Birthe

[Julio Peña]

Oy, my friends, we seem to be living in uncertain times.

Even here in NYC (the City that Never Sleeps) things

seem to have slowed down in certain sectors of daily life.

Let's hope we can ride this storm, for all our sakes.

Regards,

Julio

[Birthe C]

This group is such a nice place to be. Social media is terrible at the moment, I think. Nasty comments everywhere.

People send home to self isolate complaining about boredom, other sick and alone. The people boring themselves really should start using tiddlywiki.

Here we know that it is easy to use a lot of hours without noticing trying to better our TW. ;-) or testing something new and exciting.

Birthe

[Birthe C]

 TT

How would you get better care for the sick in an overwhelmed healthsystem?

Birthe

[TiddlyTweeter]

Cara Birthe

I raise the questions because they are in background more than is perhaps good.

To answer your reasonable challenge I'd say different countries differ. Mainly on number of intensive care beds. For instance Germany is better than Italy which reduced them a lot ten years ago.

And that is the kind of issue. It is pragmatic in context.

This is not the place to debate full details.

But to try ANSWER your question for what I do here: 

 .... write and lobby your representatives to ensure they are looking at the issue from more than one point of view. That I do. 

As well as try to understand the negative effects of social action.

Its pretty obvious that "lockdown" is highly problematic. I just walked around my "ghost-town". NOTHING is open except food and tobacconist shops. 

And, practically, for instance, I'm having online bank problems I can't solve because the helpline is to Milan and no one answers.

These are the kinds of issues that arise.  That will devastate the society if it is prolonged.

A society is many people. A decision to help the sick and how should be properly collective.

Best wishes

TT

[springer]

On a different angle: Many universities are going online-only, and so I'm ramping up my TW5 to be an even better teaching resource, now that I don't get to stand in the front of the room making animated comments and gestures while leading them on a tour around the material. 

So I'll be looking (again) into ways that my tiddlyspot-hosted site might be able to field student comments (and/or other ways of getting beyond Writer:One;Reader:Many format), without requiring me to disrupt too much or risk the problem of participants overwriting one another's work. (I already have a steep learning curve with all of the other ways our university's transition to online-only classes is developing.)

Grateful for this tool and the community you've all created around it!

-Springer

[A Gloom]

Looks I have to correct myself-- schools were shutdown for disinfecting in the beginning of the week but now at the end of the week it looks like they'll be closed again and stay closed as my county follows Denmark's example-- a 2 week "lockdown" they're calling it.  We have the most cases in the state, one case in the town a mile down the road from mine-- the State Governor decided to act.  Americans don't seem to know what a lockdown is it seems-- I wonder what they would call Italy's containment measures?

The interesting thing about the spread in my county is modern suburban living and commuting-- the individuals are contracting the virus in one area (usually workplace or travel) and because they live further out away from the city, their making it look like cases are appearing in random places throughout the county.

I don't associate with people often so I really have no clue how information dissemination works in the current every day normal person digital culture but someone has assured me tha the social media outlets are being proactive which I believe is good because that's where people's attentions is.

[TiddlyTweeter]

A Gloom wrote:

Looks I have to correct myself-- schools were shutdown for disinfecting in the beginning of the week but now at the end of the week it looks like they'll be closed again and stay closed as my county follows Denmark's example-- a 2 week "lockdown" they're calling it.  We have the most cases in the state, one case in the town a mile down the road from mine-- the State Governor decided to act.  Americans don't seem to know what a lockdown is it seems-- I wonder what they would call Italy's containment measures?

This a very Good article about Italy right now in the NYT ... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/europe/12italy-coronavirus-health-care.html

Italy is Europe's experiment. Give it a few weeks and likely rest of Europe will be the same. I can't visit friends outside my city without a police permit--though I can still freely travel into Slovenia.

The conundrum is the North, my area, is seriously locked down. It is the productive heart of Italy. It is the powerhouse for production and making money. The consequences of lockdown are serious in more than health. 

The North also has the best health services in Italy--and one of the best systems in Europe. Italy is ranked 2nd in the world after France on healthcare. A big problem though is that "critical care beds" were reduced about 10 years ago to "serve efficiency". Now its a major issue.

As and when the virus goes South, below Rome, it would be likely worse.

Just comments

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

A Gloom wrote:

... someone has assured me tha the social media outlets are being proactive which I believe is good because that's where people's attentions is.

Right now there are not enough "personal stories" to help one get a grip on reality. Of what I have seen many people do fine.

 A TW journal of someone who had it could be networked through social media as there is much demand for personal accounts.

In Lombardy, Italy, where the disease is worst, most fatalities are in the very old, 80+. Part of that death rate is also because doctors are forced to choose who can get intensive care. Some very old people are dying because resource allocation can't be infinite.

Best wishes

Josiah

[TiddlyTweeter]

I am doing my best to avoid hospital. It is the worst place to go when you are ill.

I'm focusing on being as well as possible for when I will get the disease.

TT

[Mohammad]

On Friday, March 13, 2020 at 2:04:30 PM UTC+3:30, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

I am doing my best to avoid hospital. It is the worst place to go when you are ill.

I'm focusing on being as well as possible for when I will get the disease.

I wish all the best for you! full health and energy! I hope nobody get the disease :-) 

TT

[A Gloom]

 

This a very Good article about Italy right now in the NYT .

TY-- definitely a good read-- familiar with the issue from civil defense preparedness in the 80's-- no realistic answer to the issue.  They mentioned  attribution amon medical staff-- which even with a strong healthcare system, a epidemic can seriously weaken it. 

Normal civil emergencies are usually localized like natural disaster where outside resources can be brought in-- but a pandemic is a different ballgame-- there may not be outside resources if other areas are also dealling with the same issue.

The conundrum is the North, my area, is seriously locked down. It is the productive heart of Italy. It is the powerhouse for production and making money. The consequences of lockdown are serious in more than health. 

Yes, a conundrum-- as the local emergency manager-- a doctor fortunately-- said here-- make provisions to let your workers stay home now if possible or deal with no workers later because they're sick or worst.

 

Although prestocking equipment like respirators can be realistically done after theis for the next pandemic.

As for afterward... the personal account you mentioned-- a journal of life during the lockdown-- which TW is perfectly suited for-- is an excellent idea-- get writing : P

[TiddlyTweeter]

The pandemic is bringing up many "informational issues" where there is widely varying information on the net.

In the USA, for instance, the surgeon General strongly advises NOT to wear face masks.

Part of the issue is the virus is only just taking hold in the USA, but its also because American CULTURAL aversion to masking (shades of "Anonymous" & "thugs") is strong.

Many Asian cultures have far less problem with it.

In Italy its unfamiliar but in my area its pretty much now accepted as a Good idea in more collective places. That said, the physical distancing it creates in people in a culture used to wide physical expression of emotion (hugging and kissing) is creating an unfamiliar and somewhat deleterious psychological atmosphere.

One thing I did look at was reusable "home made" masks. Partly because Mohammad mentioned masks are in short supply in Iran. 

IF you make them the right way they can work almost as well high grade surgical masks. But a Problem is most net sources don't provide enough detail to be sure you are making or using them well.

Also the is NO point wearing a mask if you don't, when you come home either destroy or disinfect it and the rest of yourself. This is hardly mentioned anywhere!

I may write about this in a TW. I just wonder how you'd ever get it noticed in a swamp of half-information

Best wishes

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

A Gloom wrote:

As for afterward... the personal account you mentioned-- a journal of life during the lockdown-- which TW is perfectly suited for-- is an excellent idea-- get writing : P

Might do it. That would be slower and reflective. I'm actually most interested in the "unintended consequences" of social change--the anthropologist in me knows that global major epidemics historically have invariably changed societies forever. I'm trying to get an early grasp on that.

What might also be interesting and quite useful is a curated collaborative  TW CORONAVIRUS TIPS collecting tips from many people? My last post mentioned issues with masks that Mohammad brought up. Both use and supply.

Thoughts

TT

[Birthe C]

TT,

Long before the first person was tested corona positive in Denmark all masks were sold out, the last ones for very high prices. Shortly after the hospitals said they were having only for the next couple of weeks. Later we were told that the Regions had imported some rather expensive ones and they were shared around the country.

The wording did not really give an impression of enough or for a long time of use I might ad.

In Denmark we were told from early on, that the masks were of no use preventing infection, it was the infected who should wear it. They are only really of use for a very short time. We are being warned that they should not be cleaned or disinfected. Place your used mask at an isolated place and leave it for nine days would maybe be better.

There are different kinds of masks though.

I have also seen examples of home made masks on the internet. We are advised against them as they do not have the necessary filters to avoid virus.

The last couple of days we have heard about people stealing masks and hand cleaners from the hospitals. As many as they could get hold of and later trying to sell them via  netpages.

I do see your point TT, Things are changing rapidly now. The epidemic cast some light on how our society work. Discussion on the media has changed.

I hope you do write about the changes.

Birthe

[Julio Peña]

Hello all,

The way I look at it is simple

...the social pandemic (with its phobias) has become worst than the actual pandemic...

Stay safe,

Julio

[Mark S.]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 5:10:31 AM UTC-7, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

In the USA, for instance, the surgeon General strongly advises NOT to wear face masks.

Part of the issue is the virus is only just taking hold in the USA, but its also because American CULTURAL aversion to masking (shades of "Anonymous" & "thugs") is strong.

Got the same advice as the surgeon General from Chris Smith a physican out of Cambridge on the Naked Scientist podcast produced in the U.K.  The main vector for viruses is when people touch their face. Messing with the mask will bring the virus closer. Most masks can not block the tiny virus particles and most people don't wear them properly, allowing air to go around the edges.

Perhaps masks are helpful in cultures where people need an excuse to avoid physical contact (e.g. kissing as a form of greeting).

I'm thinking of wearing gloves as a reminder to not touch the face. People automatically touch their face more than 20 times an hour.

[Donald Coates]

Hey Mohammed I was wondering if you have any details of this - like were these people already at risk with previous health issues, older folks, etc.

I don't know if I really want to know.

I am a respiratory therapist - my specialty is the mechanical ventilators and intubation procedure and any breathing emergency - on Long Island and having been doing this for over 20 years so I've been through a few hard core flu seasons and I have a sense for how bad this is going to get but I don't think I can really know - reading the NYT article about Italy and being able to imagine from personal experience exactly what they are describing I am realizing this is going to be a once a career level event.

We are already being told there are shortages of protective equipment and there are only a few suspected and one confirmed case in both the hospitals I work in.  They keep changing the policy about what we 'need' based on their desire to hold back on supplies.

It's been really disheartening how people are so ready to steal supplies from us.

I'll say here what I can't say anywhere around my family - I'm really worried.  Not so much about my personal safety - though Mohammed's remark is disturbing - I have a strong immune system and everyone in my household is young - but being immersed in this level of tragedy is soul crushing once the adrenaline wears off.

Be safe all.

There is a tough situation. We have several death among doctors, nurses, other medical staff.

...

--Mohammad

[TiddlyTweeter]

Its certainly true that in some places hysteria has gone berserk. I have a close friend in Southern Texas and there, with virtually no cases at all, you can't buy toilet paper because of panic buying. Emotionally she is in a bad state because she is disabled and basic staples are getting hard to get.

Meanwhile herein in Northern Italy, current centre of the virus in Europe, there is no panic buying at all I have seen & I have had no problems yet buying anything. Its a pretty relaxed atmosphere. Bit of frustration, yes. Bit weird meeting people in masks. But today, Sunday morning, people walked their dogs as usual.

TT

[Mohammad]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 6:20:28 PM UTC+3:30, Donald Coates wrote:

Hey Mohammed I was wondering if you have any details of this - like were these people already at risk with previous health issues, older folks, etc.

Hi Donald,

Were we had a nurse only 25 years old among the death. See this picture

Use Google translate if you like to read the text.

 

I don't know if I really want to know.

I am a respiratory therapist - my specialty is the mechanical ventilators and intubation procedure and any breathing emergency - on Long Island and having been doing this for over 20 years so I've been through a few hard core flu seasons and I have a sense for how bad this is going to get but I don't think I can really know - reading the NYT article about Italy and being able to imagine from personal experience exactly what they are describing I am realizing this is going to be a once a career level event.

Yep, I just watch this from TV, but the situation is really tough! 

We are already being told there are shortages of protective equipment and there are only a few suspected and one confirmed case in both the hospitals I work in.  They keep changing the policy about what we 'need' based on their desire to hold back on supplies.

It's been really disheartening how people are so ready to steal supplies from us.

I see the same here. There is a great deal of fear! Strangely you see also people donnot care!! 

I'll say here what I can't say anywhere around my family - I'm really worried.  Not so much about my personal safety - though Mohammed's remark is disturbing - I have a strong immune system and everyone in my household is young - but being immersed in this level of tragedy is soul crushing once the adrenaline wears off.

I have been told, people with stronger immune system may infect but will get their health soon! I have heard 4200 people regained their health.

Be safe all.

Be safe all!

--Mohammad 

[Mohammad]

Hi Josiah,

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 3:40:31 PM UTC+3:30, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

The pandemic is bringing up many "informational issues" where there is widely varying information on the net.

In the USA, for instance, the surgeon General strongly advises NOT to wear face masks.

Part of the issue is the virus is only just taking hold in the USA, but its also because American CULTURAL aversion to masking (shades of "Anonymous" & "thugs") is strong.

Many Asian cultures have far less problem with it.

In Italy its unfamiliar but in my area its pretty much now accepted as a Good idea in more collective places. That said, the physical distancing it creates in people in a culture used to wide physical expression of emotion (hugging and kissing) is creating an unfamiliar and somewhat deleterious psychological atmosphere.

One thing I did look at was reusable "home made" masks. Partly because Mohammad mentioned masks are in short supply in Iran. 

IF you make them the right way they can work almost as well high grade surgical masks. But a Problem is most net sources don't provide enough detail to be sure you are making or using them well.

In university we tried to make some disinfectant sprays. We ordered medical grade alcohol (99+) and glycerin and some fruit essences and then used decriminalized water (you can use double distilled water or simply double boiled water) and then make 70% alcohol + 27% water + 3% glycerin + a little amount of essences and then filled some cosmetic spray bottles.

We distributed them among students and other faculty members and staffs.

I have heard in some cities NGOs make "home made" masks.

Also the is NO point wearing a mask if you don't, when you come home either destroy or disinfect it and the rest of yourself. This is hardly mentioned anywhere!

I may write about this in a TW. I just wonder how you'd ever get it noticed in a swamp of half-information

Best wishes

TT

--Mohammad 

[TiddlyTweeter]

TBH Mark

I don't know definitively an answer.

I agree its useless wearing a mask if you think just wearing one will do it. How you fit and handle the thing matters a lot. That does not obviate benefit per se.

And, on the other hand, many Asian countries have used them a long time as part of containment strategies. Strategies that look effective.

The jury may still be out in a way.

My point was that net info is conflicting. It hard to be sure either way.

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

Donald Coates wrote:

... It's been really disheartening how people are so ready to steal supplies from us.

Right. This interests me sociologically. Its part a marker of when people don't feel collective need matters. Its especially disturbing when those thefts are not by professional criminals. It will be related to extant norms in the culture. And it makes life difficult when you have to both help people and have to police them. Basically its culture unmasked. These things don't happen without propensity.

I'll say here what I can't say anywhere around my family - I'm really worried.  Not so much about my personal safety - though Mohammed's remark is disturbing - I have a strong immune system and everyone in my household is young - but being immersed in this level of tragedy is soul crushing once the adrenaline wears off.

Medically Italy made the mistake about ten years ago of reducing critical care beds. But the North does have very Good healthcare so actually its likely better than elsewhere might become. We are receiving considerable help from Chinese doctors & equipment.

Best wishes

TT

 

[Mark S.]

On Sunday, March 15, 2020 at 9:03:37 AM UTC-7, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

And, on the other hand, many Asian countries have used them a long time as part of containment strategies. Strategies that look effective.

 

It's effective if sick people are wearing them -- not well people.

[TonyM]

Mark,

As you say

It's effective if sick people are wearing them -- not well people.

And those in contact with the vulnerable especially health professionals.  

[TonyM]

As a "modern skeptic" who practices critical thinking and does my level best to avoid common fallacies we are all vulnerable to;

I see the social epidemic, panic buying and other irrational behaviours as a symptom of societies who have lost track of seeking evidenced based information and their minds weakened by accepting Woo, alt medicine, fake news and non evidence based claims. A reduced capacity to understand and believe who is an expert and when you should trust their advice, has being caused by people selling things or who perceive their industry at risk such as the fossil fuel industry about climate change. As a result these unscrupulous people pedal doubt to fuel fear or delays in decision making for their own selfish gains. This "doubt" undermines peoples ability to evaluate reliable sources and destroys trust where is is due. 

It is in a crisis when we see the weakness in the people and systems around us. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe begins;

Don't Panic!

Regards

Tony

[Donald Coates]

Thank you very much for this it validates what I was thinking.  Here is a FB post I wrote:

A Realistic Perspective.

The problem, as usual, is that both sides contain an element of truth. If you're reading this and don't work in healthcare or are not consistently using its services, you have little or nothing to panic about on a personal level. All the closings are being done to prevent the spread of infection - necessary supply chains are necessary - they are not going to be broken and you will continue to have access to toilet paper and food.

However. For this situation classify every person by how often they are admitted to the hospital in a year. The majority of people involved in necessary supply chains are on the same level as you and me - their number is miniscule - they've been admitted into the hospital from never to a few times in their entire lifespan. Covid is not going to change that.

Now we get to the 1 through 5's - people that are admitted 1 to 5 times a year. Most years these people cycle through the hospital at different times through the year and we can handle it.

It is highly likely that soon a lot of the 3-5's are all going to be sick enough to be admitted within a very short time span, and soon after that a lot of the 1-2's. Those 1-5's, their families, and the people like me that care for them are all going to be experiencing - well I don't want to try and describe it because I'm basically in tears reading about the people abroad that are already going through this.

The only way it is going to seriously affect anyone that is less than a 1 is if you do get sick from Covid and need to be evaluated, or if you have an experience that requires emergency intervention - the chances of which remain the same as they have always been. In that case the health care infrastructure that exists to take care of you will be severely strained. Yes that is scary but not that much more scary than the constant fact that it may happen in the first place.

Most likely you'll be watching this from afar which is how it should be. Stop freaking out over toilet paper and food and just get ready to support the people that are going to be neck deep in this shit storm. The only way we get through it is together.

[A Gloom]

One thing I did look at was reusable "home made" masks. Partly because Mohammad mentioned masks are in short supply in Iran.
IF you make them the right way they can work almost as well high grade surgical masks. But a Problem is most net sources don't provide enough detail to be sure you are making or using them well.

 

that's cause those sources are from individuals (as opposed to commercial or institutional)

Also the is NO point wearing a mask if you don't, when you come home either destroy or disinfect it and the rest of yourself. This is hardly mentioned anywhere!

very good point, i hadn't thought of it till you mentioned-- but I do it habitually when I come back from the VA hospital (and before that-- when I worked I left my gear, jacket, boots in the garage and went straight to the shower after getting home from woek) so I don't think much of it.  It's been long enough since but I regularly had screening for TB, HIV, Hepatitis due to possible exposure at work.

 

I may write about this in a TW. I just wonder how you'd ever get it noticed in a swamp of half-information

Definitely do it, it will also help in combating the anxiety-- as for the question, that is an age old question of the Internat that like the meaning of Life may never be answered to my satisfaction

[TiddlyTweeter]

Ciao Mark & TonyM

Both of you make Good points but also, maybe, miss some things ...

1 - how do you know that infected people wear masks? Most of them don't likely know themselves they have it. See the Korean case of Patient31 ... https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

2 - when you go shopping are you happy the cash till operator is unmasked given they see more people than you would?

.     Here in Italy cash till operators wear the close fitting N95 type mask. For both their own protection and customer re-assurance.

.     Is that merely psychological? I don't think so.

Your context is maybe societies with low transmission. Mine is not that. We trying to get the genie back in the bottle.

Just thoughts

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

TonyM wrote:

... I see the social epidemic, panic buying and other irrational behaviours as a symptom of societies who have lost track of seeking evidenced based information and their minds weakened by accepting Woo, alt medicine,

Dunno. Much more likely just a broader culture specific thing of long-standing in the cultures affected with panic, nothing to do with "alternatives". FWIW in Italy, where I live in the maelstrom I just went shopping. There are no shortages or panic buying. 

But I see in news reports that both parts of USA & parts of OZ went bonkers.

Those cultural DIFFERENCES are interesting.

TT

[A Gloom]

But I see in news reports that both parts of USA & parts of OZ went bonkers.
Those cultural DIFFERENCES are interesting.

Yeah, its cultural-- Americans going bonkers *g,d & r*  it happens everytime a hurricane or foreseable disaster threatens

Like your freind in S Texas-- because of damned fools running on the groceries-- my family is looking at groceries not being available-- we believe we should have enough and are prepared to go to one meal a day to make it stretch (done ii before in hurricane aftermaths)

[TiddlyTweeter]

Ciao Donald

Its great get a response from someone who works in healthcare & KNOWS pattern.

My general stupid idea as Joe Average is that properly supporting healthcare matters the most.

Obviously an issue is infection in medical staff who are most exposed. But who also most well equipped to grasp precautions and recognise they might need to isolate. 

Italy, in the North, has, unfortunately, given a somewhat misleading image on death rate. Simply because we have a very large aged vulnerable population.

The average death rate overall is factors below Italy.

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

Isn't that weird :-).

I'm in the mess of it. I could do a three course meal no problem. IF there were anyone up for it. Which there isn't.

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

A Gloom wrote

... Like your freind in S Texas-- because of damned fools running on the groceries-- my family is looking at groceries not being available-- we believe we should have enough and are prepared to go to one meal a day to make it stretch (done ii before in hurricane aftermaths)

Right. Jenny in Texas, far South in Vidor, provincial nowhere, nowhere near the TX 39 cases, is suffering the imagination of  buyers who make her life hell from irrational panic.

TT

[TonyM]

I heard an reasonable argument the reason panic buying is happening here in Australia is that authorities were not quick enough with public messaging so people do irrational things in response to uncertainty.

In contrast, responses to our recent fires has being proceeded by a lot of education and empowerment such that we had extraordinary efforts to help, and no panic, the reverse in fact.

It is unwise to draw conclusions about culture when it may just be once off, knowledge and experience.

If I were an american I would be fearful given their woeful medical system

Regards

Tony

[TiddlyTweeter]

Ciao TonyM

It's an empirical matter. At the level of infection in OZ the panic buying there in places is more than lack of info. Same as USA. It's an expression of an attitude. Italy has over 17000 cases and has had no marked panic yet.

Your point was "lack of information" sparked it. No different here with lockdown. There was little info in advance and no extreme shopping.

Of course I don't know definitely. But nothing wrong acknowledge difference where it looks clear.

This no way obviates OZ is great :-)

TT, x

[TonyM]

TT,

I have no desire to defend anything, and quite prepared to acknowledge difference, my "empirical observations" differ from yours at least when it comes to Australia. My main point is the difference between two severe crisis, in quick succession (Fire then Virus). Each which resulted in different community behaviours. Thus it is hard to explain it with cultural explanations, but the information availability appears to be the difference. We have had a very good fire awareness building for decades.

I did not notice this until recent reflections, because a personal interest of mine has being virus and disease management and them in history, you could say I am reasonably well informed on this matter (although we all learn more every day) and as a result I did not panic, and did not understand why others would. Now I realise the average person is not so well informed on this subject and its somewhat understandable. 

I don't doubt the circumstances are different across countries, lived experience, culture and location. Australia is after all an island continent, unlike Italy on the doorstep of many countries.  Did you know we use the term "overseas" which is equivalent to "international" because there is no difference for us? I was Surprised when I saw my first international train station because we have no international trains, they are impossible here.

I would add I think it is a failing in Australia that we have not had more disease awareness especially after international Ebola, SARS, MERS, Bird flu etc... But MRSA and the Hendra Virus locally should have triggered better public understanding.

Regards

Tony

Hendra virus

Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus first isolated in 1994 from an outbreak of respiratory and neurologic disease in horses and humans in Hendra, a suburb of Brisbane, Australia. This virus is thought to be carried by bats of the genus Pteropus. Horses become infected through contact with bats and their droppings or secretions.

Hendra virus infection in horses produces an initial respiratory infection and can progress to neurologic signs and total systemic failure. These clinical signs are mirrored in human Hendra infection. The three cases reported in humans to date include two veterinarians and a trainer, two of which died. Humans caring for infected horses are exposed to body fluids and excretions and can easily become infected. Severe flu-like symptoms quickly develop. The globalization of the equine market makes disease transmission across continents, including the Hendra virus, a more serious threat.

[A Gloom]

Mohammad,

Did you distribute or make the wiki available to those around you-- if so, how it well did it help/work/was used?

[Mohammad]

Hi A Gloom

 Actually I distributed it to colleagues here in university!

 

But here WhatsApp is quite common and videos, images or pdfs are distributed. Hopefully TW.html (single file) can be sent through Whatsapp!

--Mohammad

[TonyM]

Folks,

With shutdowns all over the world and self isolation I fear us enthusiasts may now compete for internet bandwidth with netflix and other "trivial" pursuits.

In an annoying twist of fate my phone and adsl is out and my new broadband service unlikely to be delivered. My ISP depends on foreign call centres which are going offline progressively. If I don't get it fixed, and my mobile broadband runs out , I will be more than isolated. You may not hear from me for a while.

I wish you all luck in this current maelstrom, In the meantime I am happy, its trivial to take tiddlywiki offline and learn from its own code many things.

As Mohammad said;

Coronavirus teaches one important lesson: We (all human beings) are in the same boat! Forget color, race, religion, country border, ... we need to be kind to each other

and only with public efforts we can take over this dangerous threat!

Regards

Tony

On Friday, February 28, 2020 at 4:47:28 AM UTC+11, Mohammad wrote:

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.  

See:

1. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus 
2. Information about COVID-19 in #GoogleCrisisResponse https://g.co/kgs/EiNSbt
3. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

This is a dangerous threat to the whole world. After China, South Korea, Italy and Iran have the highest number of active cases!

See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries for live updates on number of infected by country!

Tiddlywiki can be used to create simple advise sheets (pamphlets) to be distributed through emails or WhatsApp.

Images, Videos, PDFs, can be put in a single file and send out. Step by step instructions simply can be implemented in Tiddlywiki. 

Protocols with search features and hyperlinks can be quickly prepared in Tiddlywiki.

I have prepared some copy of how to protect yourself from Guardian the Guardian here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/25/how-to-protect-yourself-from-coronavirus

Coronavirus teaches one important lesson: We (all human beings) are in the same boat! Forget color, race, religion, country border, ... we need to be kind to each other

and only with public efforts we can take over this dangerous threat!

--Mohammad

[A Gloom]

Tony

With shutdowns all over the world and self isolation I fear us enthusiasts may now compete for internet bandwidth with netflix and other "trivial" pursuits.

Not just self isolation but more ppl idle to be online (due to lack of having to be at work or having to sleep early for work or lack of social activities due to public entertainment being shut down)

 I will be more than isolated. You may not hear from me for a while.

I wish you all luck in this current maelstrom, In the meantime I am happy, its trivial to take tiddlywiki offline and learn from its own code many things.

hopefully you won't end up offline but you appear to have a plan to cope if so

in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy (no power or transportation for a week), we had to go old school and resort to a battery powered short wave reciever to combat the lack of connectivity & entertainment

[TiddlyTweeter]

FYI, Gloom & Mohammad.

I tend to use, at moment, TW to WRITE in. I stick with social media like Telegram & Twitter I use already to actually chat and disperse notes written.

I'm writing in two TW. One for immediate local concerns ... So that In Italy with friends locally we exchange tips on virus news and precautions but also nice movies to watch and discuss. Though we live close we keep distance. A lot of the reason for that is two of our group care for very elderly people. Luisa, for instance, has a mom over 80 with dementia and a (well) father of 96.

I'm also making notes, much more academic, that I may eventually do something with, about the social history and anthropology of epidemics, including "moral panics" (Sontag). Some of the news worldwide is interesting because of culturally different responses. Like the steep increase of gun sales in the USA. Why so?

Epidemiology spans disciplines. Its not just a medical issue. The experience in some Asian countries in containment I find interesting. Might go somewhere, might not. Don't yet know enough. Later.

Best wishes

TT

[TonyM]

Another two hours on the phone and my internet is fixed. Whew. Back to adsl for a while.

Local predictions of a 40% increase in daytime home internet use for work from home and extra capacity apparently being brought online. At least One big ISP is turning limited plans into unlimited plans for free.

I am sure a lot of call centres have too many staff in one building than is safe. So I will reduce my already low expectations if I need support.

This epidemic new territory for most of us and our societies, so best wishes to you all. Perhaps a global crisis like this will help us address the ones we are ignoring, once it passes.

Tony

[TiddlyTweeter]

A previous student of mine, who now attends the Rome Film School, is doing self-phone interviews with several people based on answering 7 questions she wrote on the situation. They are filmed via mobile phones. She will edit the interviews as part of her term-work whilst sequestrated. I thought it a good example of using skills you have wisely.

Just a comment

TT 

[Birthe C]

At the end of this month the TV signal changes. People in Denmark using antenna for TV will not be able to after that date without buying a new TV or change connection. All solutions costly.

Older and sick people often get their information about Corona virus and what to do from TV. They are the main users of antenna and older TV. Guess what? The group with the highest virus risc is also the group that did not have the money to buy new TV.

I think only our government did not know this;-)

I think they will soon realise that not everyone owns a smartphone either. Advice using this and only this for payments will not change anything for people that are just not able to.

Forced digitalization is a nightmare to lots of people.

Do you think that younger people loving all the new possibilities will all be loving it when they get old? Being able to keep up constantly, having the money for constant upgrades?

An old man I knew bought the latest and the greatest smartphone. (That was long time ago now, when they were all new on the market). He gave his son the same model. The son patiently showed and explained everything. Slowly and repeatedly. The problem was that the old man did only hear half the words really needing also to upgrade the hearing aid. He did not really understand what was happening at the screen, the sight being old too, and the glasses not newly upgraded. How to swipe, well not easy with trembling fingers.

When the old man got sick and in hospital he had the smartphone with him for easy contact with family. The nurses got really exhausted and had to remove it. He got so frustrated not being able to use it and throw it at them.

Internet has given us a lot of opportunity to work together around the world. Being in contact constantly and all that. It is not for everyone though and I think it is also isolating people left all alone to themselves.

Birthe

[Mark S.]

Wow, you're lucky it took so long. We had to change more than a decade ago. The government gave everyone a certificate for a certain amount towards a new digital tuner. But they didn't police the makers of the new equipment, who simply raised the price by the same amount as the allotment. After the "upgrade", it was virtually impossible to get any of our old channels. And every channel requires a different orientation of the antenna. So, haven't watched regular broadcast television in years.

Yes, elderly people who weren't into technology do have trouble adopting, at least in my family. If you didn't really get into Windows (or Macs) at an early enough stage, it seems like you have trouble understanding other window-like tools such as smart phones. The "windows" metaphor seems so natural to everyone in this forum, but it really doesn't correspond to anything you find in real life. And don't get me started on "files."

[Birthe C]

Lucky? We did change about ten years ago, this is the second time around. Politicians are now trying to debate and looking as if they are taking it serious and maybe postpone the change.

In the autumn we had changes concerning the license we have to pay for flow TV. No possibility for deduction for the retirees any more. To get everyone to pay, it were moved into taxation. No one able to escape. Being able to make use of it, no one cares. If you are married or living together, both will be deducted no matter if you own a TV or not. The channels we can watch without paying for extra channels are called public service and get massive economical support from the state (everyone of us). Besides being able to get the Corona news or other political debates I would say from experience. That once upon a time they had some old material, someone put together a tape and it was put on repeat sending the same over and over. You would have to suffer from dementia senilis not to remember every sentence uttered. We were told it was necessary because all the younger people were really only into streaming.

Very understandable of course.

Soon we will also have to change the radio. Buy buy and buy. (Everything imported of course)

Climate change, that is left to more and more taxation on the basic needs.

Birthe

[Ste Wilson]

One of my students was in their mid fifties and had literally never used a PC before. After talking them through the basics for a while they wanted to switch the PC off. They were quite offended and thought I was taking the piss when I pointed them to the START button... :(

[A Gloom]

@Birthe

At the end of this month the TV signal changes. People in Denmark using antenna for TV will not be able to after that date without buying a new TV or change connection. All solutions costly.

sorry to hear-- digitalization of TV, radio and cellular is painful to all involved-- been through the transistion of TV and cellular, radio hasn't fully transitioned yet that I know of

 

Older and sick people often get their information about Corona virus and what to do from TV. They are the main users of antenna and older TV. Guess what? The group with the highest virus risc is also the group that did not have the money to buy new TV.

I think only our government did not know this;-)

they probably didn't even though it wouldn't be hard to figure out, but like the older generation and tech, politicians are very much out of touch with the less foutunate because they are successful, "educated" and/or rich and the standard model human can not see/think out the box of their beliefs/opinions/world view.

If you ever hear me grumbling about someone not be able to think their way out of their box left think outside of it now you'll know what I mean : )

 

Do you think that younger people loving all the new possibilities will all be loving it when they get old?

they will just be like the old of the previous generation-- they will be used to the technology of their time and out of touch will technology of the next generation.  Its a repeating cycle of Life-- today's old were more tech savvy than their elders..

 an interesting demo (animated info graphics) supporting the social distancing approach to Covid

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[Birthe C]

@Gloom,

Exactly. I just wonder if it would not have been a good idea to keep some of the old analogue ways of doing things. Just for an alternative. It happens often enough that the tech solution does not work. Is laid down, hacked or just not suited for some situations. You need something to log in that you can really only apply for when you are logged in.

For some purposes snail mail worked very well.

Our taxation has not been working for about 20 years now leaking enormous amount of money. Expensive programming that did not work dropped and something new costing even more.

Converting the medical journals to digital version and all the fancy possibilities that offered was costly. That came with a cost. Closure of the local hospitals to have a few very big and specialised ones. Well with the cost rising they never got that big though. Cut in the staff doctors and nurses. Same group complaining that about half of their time was now used at the computer.

Most people will find that very relevant right now.

Great illustration the "Simulitis".

As yes, I know exactly what you mean ;-)

Birthe

torsdag den 19. marts 2020 kl. 12.00.25 UTC+1 skrev A Gloom:

@Birthe

[Alex Hough]

how about a hangout!

Alex

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[TiddlyTweeter]

One can! On radio the simple crystal set works to pick up AM, so long as it broadcasts. I'm sure many kids like me ruined a ear on one :).

They consist of a diode, a variable capacitor (for tuning) a very long wire for the arial,and an earpiece. Earthing is advised too (using it during an electrical storm could be fatal :).

They don't need batteries. The AM signal itself generates the power needed.

TT, x

[TiddlyTweeter]

Steve

hilarious and right! "Start" is access to "off" on many computers!

[TonyM]

TT,

A friend from way back had a "crystal" radio, where the capacitor was a crystal that you pushed a mounted sharp wire against, depending where on the crystal you pressed the different frequencies came through. 

The more regular crystal radio taught me a lot about the electromagnetic spectrum, then subsequently the broadcast side. An alternating current that changes so fast the resulted fields created by the movement do not have time to collapse and are radiated away. The electrons in the crystal radios antenna move according to the broadcast signal and the diode clips this to one direction only (DC) and the very sensitive earphone vibrates accordingly.

Thanks for the (off thread) memories.

Tony

[TiddlyTweeter]

TonyM wrote:

... If I were an american I would be fearful given their woeful medical system.

A big issue not addressed federally in USA yet is that whilst TESTING will be free treatment for the uninsured is left to each state. Federal packages on sick-pay (which in USA is normally optional for employers) has, though, been federalised.

There will be reluctance to get tested in some populations because if you do test positive and don't have insurance its currently unclear what you would do. So much fear of quarantine without help. Its the largely invisible, or partly insured, uninsured at risk. There are millions of them.

FYI, Spain immediately nationalized all private health institutions: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-spain-nationalises-private-hospitals-emergency-covid-19-lockdown-2020-3?IR=T

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

I am making lots of notes on aspects of the very bad situation here in Italy in a TW. Won't publish most of that publicly because I am still unclear & don't have much yet to add to info on Web already.

BUT I do want to point to importance of testing which I discuss in chat channels using the TW. 

For instance, an experiment in North Italy where a small town of 3,300 under lockdown were all tested. 

https://www.livescience.com/small-italian-town-cuts-coronavirus-cases-testing.html

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-experiment-in-northern-italian-town-halts-all-new-infections-after-trial-11959587

UPDATE: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

.               Interesting for its detail & clarity. The article is by the lead epidemiologists.  

The tests indicate that for every 10 people testing positive only 1 has symptoms. Indicating ...

- penetration deep into societies is very likely (& actually evident in Italy);

- many people have it and may recover hardly even knowing.

Experience in Italy with aged populations is that many deaths are due to co-morbidity (exacerbating existing conditions). This is seriously distorting understanding the virus. A really BIG informational issue is the current international statistical aggregations calculates death rate within a framework largely based on comparing self-registering patient numbers with their death rate. These are getting very misleading. Italy for instance is quoted as having a death rate today of 43% in "Closed Cases". https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ That is nonsense. The comparative context is wrong.

Wider random testing is essential to establish a "standard distribution" that mortality figures can be properly contextualised in. The limited few case studies we have indicate, without co-morbidity its more likely 1% or lower. Of course real life stats do need to account for how people actually are, not just pattern! BUT Good decision making needs Good information and here I think we don't fully know what is actually happening.

FWIW, if you have interest in statistical reasoning this is pretty good: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Best wishes

TT

[Mark S.]

On Friday, March 20, 2020 at 5:44:22 AM UTC-7, TiddlyTweeter wrote:

TonyM wrote:

... If I were an american I would be fearful given their woeful medical system.

The odd thing is, they're fighting tooth and nail for that system. That's what the last presidential cycle was mostly about.

You ask "why" ?

Death panels, that's why.

You ask "What's a death panel" ?

A death panel is an (imaginary) group of experts who will decide if you are too old to get a new pacemaker because it would cost too much.

You say, "You're kidding, right?"

Use your crystal radio and tune in to the political talk shows, which is about all you get on AM.

[Birthe C]

TT,

Lack of test kits, we are told. Necessary substances for other systems also in short supply.

Lack of protection for health workers also.

Birthe

[Birthe C]

TT,

 

Experience in Italy with aged populations is that many deaths are due to co-morbidity (exacerbating existing conditions). This is seriously distorting understanding the virus.

Right. But % death from Corona should also take into account that males are having nearly double the risc. (Exacerbating existing only one X condition.)

If only one X, risc does not change by identity or feeling, sorry.

Birthe

[A Gloom]

Its hitting the fan here-- everything but essential servics shut down-- but... in my immediate area, one of the essential services-- a busy convenience store just got shut down to be disinfected after a suspected case there...

news you can use, general info about proximity risks and surfaces containmentation

https://6abc.com/6015526/

EDIT: The procximity article doesn't seem to take suface contaminaion into considerarion

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-surfaces-study/index.html

Both, most definitely the second, would be good for linking to or displaying in or saving in (*see further notes below) Mohammad's guide.

* In the References Collective wiki I use tiddlers/macros that hold external links to be either viewed in a new window/tab or viewed in-tiddler (for sites that allow iframe viewing).  Also working on an easy viewer for external text, html & pdf's that the user would save to drive/device.

Also Mohammad,
(1) Can TW.html (single file) be sent through Whatsapp?  I'm not familiar with the app.
(2) that sanitizer recipe-- did it come from WHO and do you have it in your Covid wiki?  Local distrillery is using the WHO formula to get hand-sanitizer out during the shortage -- https://6abc.com/health/montco-distillery-offering-free-homemade-hand-sanitizer/6025300/

[Mohammad]

Hi A Gloom,

On Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:28:03 AM UTC+4:30, A Gloom wrote:

Its hitting the fan here-- everything but essential servics shut down-- but... in my immediate area, one of the essential services-- a busy convenience store just got shut down to be disinfected after a suspected case there...

news you can use, general info about proximity risks and surfaces containmentation

https://6abc.com/6015526/

EDIT: The procximity article doesn't seem to take suface contaminaion into considerarion

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-surfaces-study/index.html

Both, most definitely the second, would be good for linking to or displaying in or saving in (*see further notes below) Mohammad's guide.

* In the References Collective wiki I use tiddlers/macros that hold external links to be either viewed in a new window/tab or viewed in-tiddler (for sites that allow iframe viewing).  Also working on an easy viewer for external text, html & pdf's that the user would save to drive/device.

Also Mohammad,
(1) Can TW.html (single file) be sent through Whatsapp?  I'm not familiar with the app.

WhatsApp can be found here: https://www.whatsapp.com/ It is the most common messaging app in my area. In the same level Telegram is used, but it is officially filtered. Any other app you use for messaging may be capable to send .html as attachment.

 

(2) that sanitizer recipe-- did it come from WHO and do you have it in your Covid wiki?  Local distrillery is using the WHO formula to get hand-sanitizer out during the shortage -- https://6abc.com/health/montco-distillery-offering-free-homemade-hand-sanitizer/6025300/

It is actually come from our local medical center in the university. But there some certified articles around recommend the same recipes.

 

[A Gloom]

breakthru

https://www.google.com/search?q=list+of+health+belgium+agency

\define nhagooglesearch(suffix,linktitle)
<a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=list+of+health+$suffix$+agency" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><$list filter="$linktitle$">$linktitle$</$list><$reveal type="match" default="" text="$linktitle$">$suffix$</$reveal>
\end

!!__HEALTH AGENCY LINKS__:

__INTERNATIONAL__: WHO > https://www.who.int/

|YOUR NATION: |<$edit-text tiddler="$:/temp/nhasearch" placeholder="type in your nation" tag="input" type="text"/> |<$set name="gsearch" value={{$:/temp/nhasearch}}><<nhagooglesearch $(gsearch)$ SEARCH_LINK_FOR>> {{$:/temp/nhasearch}}</$set> |

EDIT: also works for region (province/state/county) or city names

//Type in your nation's name in the text edit box and click on "Page link for (search term)" which will open a Google search for your nation's national health organization in a new browser tab//<br/>
&bull; add "+" or "-" between search terms as desired<br/>
&bull; __IMPORTANT__: to use quote marks around search terms, use ``%22`` instead of ``"``

Once you find the national health organization of your nation, you can copy the URL/web address and paste it into the Bookmark section below to save it for future reference in this app.

To bookmarks your national health organization paste its URL here:

[TiddlyTweeter]

Ciao Mohammad

(2) that sanitizer recipe-- did it come from WHO and do you have it in your Covid wiki?  Local distrillery is using the WHO formula to get hand-sanitizer out during the shortage -- https://6abc.com/health/montco-distillery-offering-free-homemade-hand-sanitizer/6025300/

This is a Good informational point. Sanitizer is good for environments where bathrooms are shared and many people around. Or where you need a "portable" solution.

But plain soap and water thoroughly used can be very effective. The virus is of the type with a weak exterior. Saponification works well on destroying such viruses.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/why-soap-preferable-bleach-fight-against-coronavirus/

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

Birthe C wrote:

Right. But % death from Corona should also take into account that males are having nearly double the risc. (Exacerbating existing only one X condition.)

If only one X

Right. Also other factors in China played a role since vast numbers of men smoke there and the virus is particularly viscous for breathing.

FYI, 70%+ of the recorded deaths of known infected in Italy are male. Reflecting possibly combination of advanced aged and the poorer General immunity in men.

The pattern is a bit different elsewhere, not quite so marked. These are guesses from what I read.

Best wishes

TT

[A Gloom]

This is a Good informational point. Sanitizer is good for environments where bathrooms are shared and many people around. Or where you need a "portable" solution.

exactly-- santizers are an alternative-- especially in public where its not feasible or possible to wash hands after touching door handles, etc

but ppl are more likely to use sanitzers even if they wipe them off too soon and have an unrealistic view of their protection afterwards

we're looking at sanitizers in that way-- in the field after leaving a public place-- we depended upon grocery deliveries before all of this and it's looking like we won't be able to get them-- so its goin to be roughing it like the elders say "back in the day..." and it will be about 40 minutes before we get back to a sink to deconn properly.

 

But plain soap and water thoroughly used can be very effective. The virus is of the type with a weak exterior. Saponification works well on destroying such viruses.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/why-soap-preferable-bleach-fight-against-coronavirus/

good article-- ty for posting

you may recognize the format from Ref Collective, applying toward something for Mohammad's work

[Mohammad]

Many Thanks!

This is wonderful.

--Mohammad

[A Gloom]

Mohammad

I will have a tiddler for you soon (with "bookmarking" see screenshot in reply to TT)-- but first sleep-- you helped inspire me not to remain on the sidelines

[TiddlyTweeter]

Birthe C wrote:

Lack of test kits, we are told.

Testing looks vital. The fact Italy rapidly switched from cohort tracing to testing mostly only on presentation of symptoms may prove a big mistake.

Sure there are finite tests available, but there is also very limited verification testing. Verification testing is statistically based sampling that IS likely managable. This done not by medical teams but epidemiologists using people trained only to collect samples.

A main issue now is we have little idea of latency at large.

South Korea, Taiwan & China took a different approach. Their differences also reflect more than medical matters but social factors too that include rights & surveillance. 

South Korea is particularly interesting because it was prepared and utilised the existing smart-phone, CCTV & other tech well.

http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-south-koreas-success-in-controlling-disease-is-due-to-its-acceptance-of-surveillance-134068

All news take with a pinch of salt. But some of it has some lessons.

Best wishes

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

For those on email I updated a previous post with a link to an article in the Guardian by the two epidemiologists that lead the "Vo experiment" in Italy on the High relevance of wide testing ... https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

TT

[TiddlyTweeter]

Mark S. wrote:

TonyM wrote:

... If I were an american I would be fearful given their woeful medical system.

You ask "What's a death panel" ?

A death panel is an (imaginary) group of experts who will decide if you are too old to get a new pacemaker because it would cost too much.

My emphasis. Right. That has always been case in many parts of USA. I personally knew people who died early because they did not want to lumber their families with vast debt.

Right now the US situation with free Testing and utter ambiguity on Treatment Costs for "no or low" insurance does not bode well.

TT

[Birthe C]

T. T.

Well, what are the countries doing about the homeless? Every country have homeless people in smaller or bigger numbers. Living homeless is absolutely not healthy, they will be at high risc. The lock down closes a lot of the initiatives that are for them. Sleeping places, places to go to get some warmth, contact and a hot meal are closing due to lock down.

Some people care and work hard to find solutions, some people do not care. But really homeless people getting the infection should scare anyone as it will lead to high rise in infection for everyone. Covid19 does not ask for your address.

Birthe

[Mark S.]

The point was, that there is this paranoia that under universal health, your destiny  would be in the hands of a faceless, nameless bureaucrat .

[TiddlyTweeter]

Mark S. wrote:

The point was, that there is this paranoia that under universal health, your destiny  would be in the hands of a faceless, nameless bureaucrat .

Universal healthcare? I'm maybe missing your point?

In Italy it is the case that many people are dying because allocation by doctors of care has been forced partial.

They ARE making choices on guesstimates on survival rate.

In USA the "insurance factor" is a serious compounding issue.

TT