On Mon, 8 Jan 2018 16:33:59 -0800, islander <
no...@priracy.com> wrote:
>On 1/7/2018 5:56 PM, bill bowden wrote:
>>
>> Islander wrote:
>>
>>>>
>> Is the stock market in another bubble? Probably, so watch out if it
>> continues to grow and the Fed raises interest rates. Actually that may
>> be a good thing because returns on municipal bonds may return to
>> reasonable levels.
>>>>
>>
>> It may be a good thing for people buying new bonds but not a good thing for people holding old bonds at low rates. Bond values move inverse to interest rate changes. Who wants to buy your 2 percent bond if the new rates are 4%? You have to give it away. It ain't worth the paper it's printed on.
That 2% bond is worth the paper it's printed on, but just less than
when it was issued -- if rates have doubled since that issue date. As
you said, investors wont pay 4% prices for 2% yields. Another factor
is maturity date. If that 2% bond matures next week it's worth a lot
more than one that mature in 30 years. Even the 4% bond can have a
trap door. A bond paying 4% when rates have fallen to 2% may have a
call feature and just might get called.
>Duh! Even tho municipal bonds pay more than keeping your money in the
>bank, now is not a good time to buy. My point is that if the Fed raises
>interest rates, munis will make more sense than common stock which has
>the reverse correlation to interest rates. Of course, munis are a much
>safer investment for this stage of life.
>
Not necessarily ...
"Puerto Rico Defaults: Are Illinois And New Jersey Next?"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4069063-puerto-rico-defaults-illinois-new-jersey-next
The reverse correlation you described is stronger for bonds than
stocks for the simple reason that as interest rates rise, bond prices
fall to keep yields of existing bond issues in line with current
interest rates. Prices of stocks in which their share price is closely
tied to dividend yields (ex. utilities) may behave much like bonds and
weaken in price, but because rising interest rates are associated with
a strong economy, job growth, and increased corporate profits, most
stock prices tend to rise.
My own philosophy is that people our age should have a mixture of
stocks and bonds, with the ratio tied to risk tolerance. In my case
it's 50/50, which in the long run has served us well.