Thailand’s Big Brother Drama

By William Pesek Nov 8, 2013 5:19 AM GMT+0700

“Welcome to the Republic of Thaksin.” You won’t see these words displayed in the customs hall when arriving in Thailand, but the Land of Smiles has indeed morphed into the land of Thaksin Shinawatra.

That should be giving Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy plenty to frown about. Seven years after the former prime minister was ousted in a coup, Thaksin’s long shadow continues to dominate Thai politics. Since then, the country has seen six prime ministers, the most recent one being Thaksin’s baby sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.

Like many loving siblings, Yingluck looks out for her kin. Recently she tried to ram a get-out-of-jail-free card for Thaksin and other politicians through the parliament -- as big a political blunder as Asia has seen in years. Markets plunged and more than 32,000 people joined demonstrations in the capital and 17 other provinces. This week, Yingluck backed down and agreed to scrap the bill for now.

But anyone who thinks that’s the end of Thailand’s Thaksin nightmare is wrong. The proud and acerbic billionaire, Asia’s answer to Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, isn’t about to shelve his obsession with returning home, reclaiming the portion of his telecommunications fortune frozen by the state and succeeding his sister. Many fear Yingluck is little more than a placeholder for big bro.

Thaksin’s Ambitions

With his ambitions thwarted for now, the focus has turned to how much money this setback will cost Thaksin. Thais should be worrying instead about how much this political circus is hurting their $366 billion economy. Every day that politicians and policy makers in Bangkok spend obsessing over Thaksin’s return is one that’s not being used to modernize the economy, increase competiveness and avoid the “middle-income trap” that befalls many developing nations and may soon ensnare Thailand.

The politics of personality aren’t confined to Thailand. Asia is awash with larger-than-life populists bigger on charisma and spin than concrete reforms: leaders like Shinzo Abe in Japan, Xi Jinping in China and, in some ways, Benigno Aquino in the Philippines. The same problem afflicts several figures who have yet take the helm, including India’s Rahul Gandhi. All have neglected tough policy work in hopes that a strong personality will be enough to carry them through and bolster their approval ratings.

But Thaksin raised the strategy to an art form, essentially making an entire nation about him. His tenure from February 2001 to September 2006 saw nothing less than the wholesale bastardization of Thai democracy. He neutered its institutions and enriched his family members and cronies in ways that would have made a Russian oligarch blush.

Like former Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, Thaksin was a powerful tycoon who leveraged his business success to become leader. Thaksin, like Berlusconi, was later accused of bending the government to his will and in alignment with his business interests. He got away with it by literally bribing the rural communities that formed his power base. His “Thaksinomics” program of flooding the hinterlands with cheap loans was never more than Tammany Hall-like doling out of cash for support. The money did nothing to improve the economy’s fundamentals or capacity for innovation.

It’s a strategy Yingluck copied early and often after becoming prime minister in 2011. Take her disastrous rice-subsidy plan, which by the latest estimate has cost $19 billion since October 2011 and over time has recorded losses equivalent to 59 percent of that figure.

Distorted Markets

Thailand is now sitting on two years of export production, which has distorted rice markets in the Mekong River region and cost Thailand the title of world’s biggest rice exporter. What’s depressing is that in that time Thailand could have, say, built a new state-of-the-art airport. Instead Suvarnabhumi Airport, opened the same month in 2006 in which Thaksin was ousted, continues to struggle with capacity constraints that are impeding the all-important tourism market.

Why champion such a debacle? The rice program is sure to pay huge dividends for Yingluck, and by extension Thaksin, come early 2014 when her government may call a snap poll. The hope would be for Yingluck’s party to demonstrate enough of a mandate to resurrect the amnesty bill. To do that, they will need the farmers. Hence the linear focus on boosting rice prices.

It’s frustrating to think where Thailand might be today had the nation not squandered the last seven years on all things Thaksin. By overreaching so spectacularly with the amnesty bill, Yingluck displayed a level of cluelessness that will further hobble her ability to govern.

The bill might have gotten further if it had also applied to people charged with lese-majeste, which mandates prison sentences as long as 15 years for defaming or insulting the king, queen, heir apparent or regent. Instead the bill would have allowed Yingluck’s brother, army officers and former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who faces murder charges for authorizing soldiers to use weapons during unrest in 2010, to walk free -- not average Thais. It left the pro-Thaksin Red Shirts and opponents known as the Yellow Shirts wondering who, or what, they had been fighting for.

It’s time that the Republic of Thaksin became less about one man and more about the aspirations and needs of Thais.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist.)

To contact the writer of this article: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpe...@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this article: Nisid Hajari at nha...@bloomberg.net.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/thailand-s-big-brother-drama.html

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Nov 10, 2013, 3:13:14 PM11/10/13

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that country had a record of using military force to solve this type of issue so do not be surprise if THAILAND REPEAT the familiar armed force again. i´m glad i´m several thousand-miles away from that HOT SPOT. if the military had to flood BKK i´ll not be stuck at the airport just waiting for a flight

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Nov 13, 2013, 3:38:45 PM11/13/13

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Just take a look at THAILAND constitution history and we will see that it was in continuous replacement. typically each replacement was made after a military coup. the one i mentioned can be found here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Thailand

the constitution is suppose to be stable and the GRAND LAW of the nation YET it was being kick and step over so often in THAILAND let alone those political parties. PROTEST and coup are the NORM. just let them do their NORMAL routine. after a few days they will learn how to settle those issues themselves and the LWG market would be stable for all tourists in that religion. i´ll just need to wait a little over a few months and the region will be back to the normal FUN place for vacation destination especially when my G-FRIEND is in that region. perhaps it is time for me to switch to a G-FRIEND in a different region or move the current GF to different and stable region.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Nov 25, 2013, 1:22:55 AM11/25/13

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It's likely that the Pheua Thai Party regime's days are numbered!
http://www.manager.co.th/Around/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9560000146029

Sithandone

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Nov 25, 2013, 11:32:56 AM11/25/13

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On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 1:36:29 AM UTC-8, nottoo...@yahoo.com wrote:
> This seems to be the Bill that looks for BIG trouble again... http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/378154/dems-seize-ratchadamnoen-ave http://news.yahoo.com/political-tension-flares-thailand-over-amnesty-bill-090028708.html

When my family was refugee in Thailand, the Thai government looked down on us and treated us like animals. I just wish that Thailand goes to war and their blood flow into the Chao Phraya river. Thailand is a sin city and it's time to clean up the bad elements. God will punish Thailand big time.

CASALAO

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Nov 25, 2013, 1:03:40 PM11/25/13

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-25/the-folly-of-thailand-s-endless-protests-.html

THE AUTHOR THERE MADE A GOOD POINT IN THE SENSE THAT THE THAI ARE ON THE VERGE OF COMMITTING ANOTHER ECONOMIC SUICIDE.

I AM STILL BOTHERED BY THE FACT THAT HALF OF THE SENATE IS APPOINTED BY THE KING AND THE BEHIND-THE-SCENE POWERS. THAT'S A FUCKED-UP SYSTEM.

ALSO WHILE IN THAILAND, YOU ALWAYS HAVE THIS LESE MAJESTE STUFF LURKING BEHIND YOU. A SLIP OF THE TONGUE AND YOU END UP AT THE BANGKOK HILTON.

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NOW THERE ARE TWO POPULAR FORCES HERE, THE YELLOW SHIRTS AND THE RED SHIRTS. ARE THE RED SHIRTS JOINING THE CURRENT PROTESTERS? I DON'T THINK SO.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 1, 2013, 11:37:57 PM12/1/13

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There are many red shirts defected to the anti-government side or do not show up to a major rally in support of the regime at Rajamangala stadium in Bangkok on November 30th, perhaps, found out that the current Peua Thai Party worked in the interest of lining up the Taksin's cronies's pockets and helping Taksin to avoid a two-year jail term for a corruption conviction as the main goals...

Facing the larger number of anti-government protesters which may be as much as more than million people, the Red shirts cancelled their rally, based on my estimation as shown on every TV stations in Thailand, would be no more than 20-25 thousands at most.

The anti-protesters appear to have a high motivation for their protest this time...

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 2, 2013, 4:30:10 AM12/2/13

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On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 3:36:29 AM UTC-6, nottoo...@yahoo.com wrote:
> This seems to be the Bill that looks for BIG trouble again...
>
>
>
> http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/378154/dems-seize-ratchadamnoen-ave
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/political-tension-flares-thailand-over-amnesty-bill-090028708.html

whoever sell those tear gas is making a good profit of $

in this VDO protesters are running away and falling. more protest=>injuries=>dead that is the formula there is no other road unless the protesters use the same method they did to thakxin by using the COURT and ARMY. that formula is COURT+ARMY==> no PM for the opposing party or regime just pick the one you like.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7HTR95n3mw

Her Lao

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Dec 2, 2013, 4:18:02 PM12/2/13

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There is always a "time and a place" for everything, every activity, every momentum.

Now, the "Yellow Shirts" have the number and momentum. It WAS the "Red Shirts" a year or two, or three, in the past.

The ARMY's "non-involvement" MAY BE as you said; or it may be as some others have suggested: that after ENDLESS involvement, there seems to be some sense of "maturity" or "maturation" developing within the HEADS of the top officers in charge of the armed forces, too...

After all, THEY look around the world, and the most developed nations/people/societies DO NOT ever have their armed forces backing one faction of the people or another.

Thailand, as a society in transitional development, IS MOVING to become a "developed" status nation/society. If neither people NOR army officers could control THE ARMED FORCES, your society JUST DOESN'T HAVE A CHANCE to become truly developed. Period.

So, again, senior officers in the various branches of the ARMED FORCES must have conferred upon one another... and they must have made some deal, however tentative right now, NOT to be "drawn into popular citizenry protests" of one group or another.

But the ARMED WILL COME OUT in full force, if the protests go beyond the "red shirts" and the "yellow shirts"....

That is, the Thai armed forces will put Thailand into a military junta mode IMMMEDIATELY if the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat came out in the tens of thousands.

Of the two branches of 7th century Holy Islam, the Sunnis TEND to be the more radical --- the more primitive --- and Thai Muslims seem to be more Sunni-oriented than Shiite oriented. The American "created" Al Qaida network folks are, for example, Sunni Moslems.

Even very rigid and primitive SHIITES Moslems SEEM to understand that we live in the 21st century, and you CAN'T and you SHOULN'T MAKE OTHERS observe YOUR TRIBAL nonsense. And many Shiites CLERICS seem to tolerate, for example, WESTERN and other non-Moslem WOMEN JOURNALISTS to interview them WITHOUT covering their heads.

That is NOT TRUE of Sunni Moslems, most of whom think RETURNING to the "pure" doctrine of Mohammed and to live like Mohammed lived, in the 7th century, IS THE WAY TO MOVE BACKWARD, to Allah's world.

Sunnis tolerate NO WOMEN --- journalists, non-journalist, Moslem and non-Moslem --- in front of them, if they DONT' COVER THEIR HEAD/HAIR.

The Thai ARMED FORCES will come out, if their Sunni Moslem Thais started congregating in significant numbers in one or two southern provinces... regardless what the "red shirts" or the "yellow shirts" tribes in the northern and eastern provinces do... or do not do...

Thaksin and his little sister are, of course, unbelievably corrupted, like ALL POLITICIANS ARE, in all societies. It's just that Thailand, being a second world status, the corruption is CRUDER and everyone could see it... But, then, again, no Thai politicians is beyond this primitive tactics... or MOB MENTALITY.

The guy just before Thaksin's little sister SEEMED reasonable enough: he more or less took the attitude of most modern politician: I may win or I may very well lose; but if I lose, I lose as a man, as one man. I step out and allow whoever that wins to run the country.

Perhaps he was/is just as corrupt; but that decent attitude gave me some superficial thoughts about his decent disposition.

Perhaps he or some others like him could come to the fore, when the Thaksin family mafia --- literally --- is run out of town, brother and sister together... But, then, of course, the EASTERN Thai folks, the Esan folks, the bulk of the former mighty "red shirts" would now be at the very bottom in the Thai political totem pole, next to the oppressed southern Sunni Moslem Thais...

ເຊີນຍີ້ມ

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Dec 2, 2013, 6:26:32 PM12/2/13

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 3, 2013, 12:57:34 AM12/3/13

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As of this writing the protesters are entering the Government compound already!

KC

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Dec 3, 2013, 1:24:57 AM12/3/13

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They should kill the Bill only, not the Government.

Her Lao

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nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 3, 2013, 9:38:14 AM12/3/13

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You could say anything you like but you seem to know too little about Thailand and the so many parties there indeed! The fight in Thailand right now is not like black and white! It's very complicated and the change for Army to crack down on the anti-government protesters looks virtually nil, thus, no condition for the King to step in...

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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l...@laoclub.zzn.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 7:53:57 AM12/4/13

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I think nottoo know only Thai style of democracy 'cause he seems to be so defensive of it.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:15:53 AM12/4/13

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You guys seem to know only democracy on the book but know nothing about Thailand's one and what is really going on over there! Never compare that of democracy in Thailand as similar to the one in USA. It's just like orange and apple, uncomparable!

When the government is too bad, the people rise up against them and nothing wrong with that. If you think that anybody elected by the people is right no matter what including abuses of power and corruptions and so on... is OK, you need to wake up and find out the reality!

I am not defending anyone there, I just dislike corruption and abuse of power by the party or parties of the current regime thinking that they won 15 million votes of the total population of about 69 millions and could do whatever they wished without regard to ethic, the Amnesty Bill they tried to pass and voted for it in particular plus other rice buying scheme and more...

CASALAO

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:33:20 AM12/4/13

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On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 5:15:53 AM UTC-8, nottoo...@yahoo.com wrote:
> You guys seem to know only democracy on the book but know nothing about Thailand's one and what is really going on over there!

what do you mean by 'only on the book'? we are living here in the greatest democracy that the world has ever known called the united states of america so we should know a thing or two about democracy, no?

we know that thailand is a constitutional monarchy where half the senate is not elected by the people. i mean that right there is crappy enough already.

it is true that rice scheme is not a good policy but that doesn't warrant toppling the yingluck government.

yes the failed amnesty bill didn't look good but it was properly done through the constitutional process. it is a clean move, no?

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:33:52 AM12/4/13

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Casalao,

Thailand needs major political reform and strenghening the check and balance of power. Without that it will go back to the same thing again and again. Bear this in mind, too many rural people are uneducated and easily bought and brainwashed. Those people don't care whether the people they elected to parliament or to run the country are crooked politicians as long as they benefit from them, Taksin is on top of that.

Can you accept this type of saying? "Corruption is OK as long as I gain something from it." Most Redshirts would accept it.

I am not different from anyone of you there, like democracy and free and fair election and the rule of law. However, in Thailand, following the rule of law doesn't always work there!

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:48:27 AM12/4/13

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Just look at something as in the islamic countries. Egypt in particular, democracy won't work very well there. When the Brotherhood won, it tries to impose islamic law on others and so forth and it calls that democracy also...it's not exactly like democracy in the developed world.

Most uneducated people are easily brainwashed including the majority of uneducated muslims women and men. They would vote for the islamic party using islams as keyword. They just think that democracy is just like a one man one vote and that's it.

Thailand is somewhat like that too b/c too many uneducated rural folks are easily brainwashed and bought. They don't care whether the politicians are crooked or not as long as they benefit from them.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 9:38:02 AM12/4/13

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Casalao,

ລັດຖະບານທີ່ນຳໂດຍພັກເພື່ອໄທ ພາກັນ Voted for the Amnesty Bill ທີ່ຈະໃຫ້ Taksin ພົ້ນຜິດທຸກໆຢ່າງກ່ຽວກັບຄະດີ corruptions and abuses of power ທີ່ຕັດສິນໄປແລ້ວບາງຄະດີທີ່ໃຫ້ Taksin ຕິດຄຸກສອງປີ ແລະຄະດີອີກ 10 ກ່ວາຄະດີທີ່ບໍ່ທັນໄດ້ຕັດສິນເທື່ອ ເພາະ Taksin ຫລົບໜີໄປກ່ອນ. ຈຸດປະສົງຂອງ Amnesty Bill ແມ່ນໂດຍສະເພາະ Taksin ເປັນຫລັກ ແລະຜູ້ຜິດອື່ນໆນັ້ນ ແມ່ນຜົນພອຍໄດ້ຊື່ໆ ແລະ Taksin ກໍຈະໄດ້ເງິນທີ່ຖືກສານຢຶດໄປ 46 billion bahts ກັບຄືນ Plus interest of 7.5%...

ພວກທີ່ມາປະທ້ວງຖືວ່າພວກສະມາຊິກສະພາແລະພັກລັດຖະບານບໍ່ມີ ETHIC ຫລັກຈະຣິຍະທັມ ຈຶ່ງສ້າງກົດໝາຍແບບນີ້ຂຶ້ນມາ ແລະເຫັນສົມຄວນໃຫ້ຮັບຜິດຊອບ ມີຄວາມລະອາຍ...ແຕ່ນັກການເມືອງໄທ ໜັງໜ້າໜາ ບໍ່ຄື ຂອງ USA ເດີ ບໍ່ມີໃຜລາອອກດອກ ບໍ່ມີຢາງອາຍ.

ນອກນັ້ນ ສະພາດຽວກັນນີ້ກໍດັດແປງຣັດຖະທຳມະນູນ ເພື່ອຢາກໃຫ້ທຸກໆ SENATOR ມາຈາກການເລືອກຕັ້ງ. ຈຸດປະສົງຂອງ current Constitution ສ້າງມາແລ້ວຫັ້ນແມ່ນຕ້ອງການໃຫ້ senators ປະມານ 73 or 74 ຄົນມາຈາກການແຕ່ງຕັ້ງ ເພື່ອບໍ່ໃຫ້ຄອບງຳໄດ້ໂດຍພັກໃດພັກນຶ່ງ ເພື່ອໃວ້ເປັນຜູ້ເບິ່ງບໍ່ໃຫ້ສະພາຕ່ຳຜ່ານຫລືອອກກົດຫມາຍທີ່ບໍ່ເປັນທຳໄດ້.
ເວົ້າອີກຢ່າງກໍເພື່ອຕລວດສອບການກະທຳຂອງສະພາຕຳ່.

Constitutional Court rejected the amendment ເພາະຖືວ່າມັນຂັດຣັດຖະທັມນູນ ທີ່ເຂົາສ້າງຂຶ້ນມາ. ຄັນຊັ້ນເຂົາສິມີສະພາສູງໃວ້ໃຫ້ເປືອງເງິນພາສີຊາວບ້ານເຮັດຫຍັງ...ຖ້າວ່າສິປ່ອຍໃຫ້ senator ເລືອກຂ້າງໄດ້.

ເມື່ອເຫັນວ່າ Constitutional Court reject their constitution amendment ພວກພັກລັດຖະບານພາກັນອອກມາປະກາດວ່າບໍ້ຮັບຮູ້ສານຣັດຖະທັມນູນ. ຕາມກົດຂອງ the current constitution ແລ້ວ ຈະບໍ່ຮັບບໍ່ໄດ້ ຄຳຕັດສິນຂອງສານແມ່ນ FINAL!

ສະນັ້ນແລ້ວພວກຜູ້ຄົນຈຶ່ງພາກັນອອກມາປະທ້ວງຫລວງຫລາຍທີ່ສຸດໃນປະວັດສາດຂອງ Thailand ເລີຍ. ພວກປະທ້ວງຖືວ່າ the current regime is illegitimate for rejecting the constitutional court's ruling.

ເລື້ອງອື່ນໆທີ່ຜູ້ຄົນອອກມາປະທ້ວງ ແມ່ນການກູ້ຢືມເງິນຈຳນວນຫລວງຫລາຍ for MEGA projects ທີ່ຜູ້ປະທ້ວງຄິດວ່າບໍ່ຈຳເປັນ ແລະຈະໃຫ້ຄົນໄທໃຊ້ໜີ້ໄປອີກ 50 ປີກະບໍ່ໝົດ. ເລື້ອງຈຳນຳເຂົ້າເພື່ອເອົາໃຈພວກຄະແນນສຽງນັ້ນກໍເຮັດໃຫ້ປະເທດໄທຂາດທຶນໜັກຫລາຍຮ້ອຍພັນລ້ານແລ້ວ...ເລື້ອງນີ້ກໍກຳລັງສິມີການຕລວດສອບໜັກຄືກັນ. Amnesty Bill ກໍຫວັງຢາກໃຫ້ຜູ້ທີ່ກ່ຽວຂ້ອງກັບຄະດີນີ້ກະບໍ່ຕ້ອງຜິດ.

ເລື້ອງຄະດີຂ້າຄົນແບບຕັດຕ່ອນເລື້ອງຢາເສບຕິດ 2300 ກ່ວາສົບນັ້ນກໍຄືກັນ, Amnesty Bill ຈະບໍ່ໃຫ້ໃຜຜິດ.

ຖາມວ່າເປັນຫຍັງວ່າ government ເຮັດບໍ່ຖືກແລ້ວ ບໍ່ໄປສູ້ກັນໃນສະພາ ຕາມຫລັກ democracy---ເພາະ the government ມີສຽງຂ້າງມາກ ແລະບໍ່ມີທາງທີ່ຝ່າຍຄ້ານ ຈະເຮັດຫຍັງໄດ້. ຖ້າພວກ ປຊຊ ບໍອອກມາປະທ້ວງຄັ້ງນີ້ ເຂົາຄິດວ່າບ້ານເມືອງຈະເສັຽຫາຍຫນັກດ້ວຍການ corruption ແລະ Taksin ຈະເປັນເຈົ້າຂອງໆທຸກຢ່າງໄນໄທ.

ການເລືອກຕັ້ງ ຄິດວ່າຝ່າຍຄ້ານກະຍັງສູ້ ພັກ Taksin ບໍ່ໄດ້ເທື່ອ ເພາະວ່າວັດທະນະທຳແລະການສຶກສາຂອງຄົນຈຳນວນມາກໃທແຖວໆບ້ານນອກຂອງ Thailand ຫັ້ນຍັງບໍ່ສູງພໍເທື່ອ. ພວກຊາວໄຮ່ຊາວສວນ ສ່ວນໃຫຍ່ການສຶກສານ້ອຍ ລ້າງສະໝອງຫລືຊື້ຈ້າງງ່າຍ. ໃຜສິດີຫລືຮ້າຍ ກະບໍ່ໄດ້ສົນໃຈ ຂໍພຽງວ່າໄດ້ເງິນນຳ ກໍລົງຄະແນນໃຫ້ແລ້ວ. ພວກເຂົາຍອມຮັບວ່າ corruption ແດ່ກະບໍ່ຖື ຂໍໃຫ້ໄດ້ກິນໄດ້ໃຊ້ນຳ ກະບໍ່ເປັນຫຍັງ...

On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 1:33:20 PM UTC, CASALAO wrote:

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 4, 2013, 11:49:00 AM12/4/13

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if coup keep going at this rate the royal in THAILAND might consider going back to ABSOLUTE monarchy where no one can start a coup legally. that will stable the country. just do the DEMOCRACY the ABSOLUTE monarchy style. anyone attempting a coup is the BIGGEST CRIME in the country that would limit the number of coups to make an economic suicide for the country.

Her Lao

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Dec 4, 2013, 5:38:53 PM12/4/13

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On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 6:37:27 AM UTC-6, CASALAO wrote:
> thailand as a country is addicted to coup and stuff. don't like a government? let's have a coup.

>

> and stop saying ไม่เปันไร because it is เปันไร.

+++++++++++++++

Actually, Caslao, if your country is on a perpetual coup and counter-coup mode, over many decades ... take a breather and think about: it really is ไม่เปันไร!, whether it is coup or a counter-coup, or one from the Z-direction!

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:43:40 PM12/4/13

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This report tells a lot about the situation in Thailand well, although not in more detail.\

Thaksin's homecoming hopes dashed as Thai crisis reignites.
By Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's political future is cloudier than ever, but one thing is for certain - self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra won't be coming home soon.

The chances of another round of political conflict seemed slim a few months ago as the government of Thaksin's sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, entered its third year in office after a fairly smooth ride, much to do with outwardly cordial ties with her brother's enemies, among them generals, royal advisers and opposition politicians.

Having fled into exile to avoid a jail sentence for graft in 2008, Thaksin had hoped the climate was ripe for him to try to return. But now that seems less likely than ever.

Protesters have marched for weeks in Bangkok streets, clashing with riot police and vowing to overthrow the "Thaksin regime" and replace it with "good people", effectively suspending Thailand's democratic system. Yingluck's honeymoon period is over. Her government is clinging on.

The mistake for her, it seems, was her Puea Thai party's attempts to ram through the legislature a political amnesty bill that outraged opponents, who called it a blatant move whitewash the divisive Thaksin of his crimes.

The Senate rejected the bill and Yingluck shelved it, but the damage was already done. Thaksin's opponents among the royalist, military-backed establishment and the parliamentary opposition had the pretext they needed to launch the latest salvo.

"Thaksin is the ghost of Thailand's politics and people just can't get over him," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University's Centre for Southeast Asian Studies.

..View gallery Anti-government protesters poke their hands through the main gate to the Thai Police Headquarters an …"Through the amnesty, he tested the waters, but these were deep, deep waters and that has provided the protesters with an opportunity to remove a threat to the old establishment."

Though a ceasefire of sorts has been declared between demonstrators and the government to mark the 86th birthday of much revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej on Thursday, the battle lines have again been drawn in a long-running conflict pitting a decades-old oligarchy against a new one that has emerged under Thaksin's rule.

LEADER AT LARGE

Few think that Yingluck's party that won a 2011 election in a landslide by campaigning on Thaksin's name and populist policies is being run independently of him. The cabinet is stacked with his closest allies with whom he communicates via Skype and many Puea Thai lawmakers have met him overseas at his homes in Hong Kong and Dubai.

The amnesty bid is widely seen as a poor call by Thaksin, who might have been lulled into a false sense of security by Yingluck's peaceful run in office, her party's commanding parliamentary majority and the military's attempts to distance itself from the crisis after a series of bungled forays into politics since overthrowing Thaksin in a 2006 coup.

Under Yingluck, Thailand rebounded from the worst flood crisis in 50 years with economic growth of 6.5 percent in 2012.

A policy of tax rebates for first-time buyers of homes and cars won some middle-class support while a rice subsidy shored up already strong rural backing garnered from almost free healthcare, village grants and cheap loans under Thaksin.

Combined with a hefty war chest amassed from a telecoms business and ventures into gold and diamond mines and even a Premier League soccer club, billionaire Thaksin has the cash to spend on modern marketing campaigns that have won him or his proxies every election since 2001. It's likely they would win another if a snap poll was called, something Yingluck has refused to do.

That leaves the situation in a stalemate if Thailand wants to remain a democracy.

If Yingluck's government was forced out, it would only be a matter of time, given the electoral support, before Thaksin wrested back control, whether he's actually in Thailand or not.

Until then, Thaksin may have left his sister with a lot to contend with.

"This amnesty fiasco has blown up in his face, the anti-Thaksin crusade has been reignited and there's every indication this will not stop here," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"These protests have been condoned and supported by large segments of the Bangkok-based establishment. It looks very clear the protesters have strategic backing and if the military intervenes, it will certainly not be on the side of the government."

(Editing by Robert Birsel and Nick Macfie)

http://news.yahoo.com/thaksin-39-homecoming-hopes-dashed-thai-crisis-reignites-210308413.html

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 4, 2013, 8:54:13 PM12/4/13

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On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 3:36:29 AM UTC-6, nottoo...@yahoo.com wrote:
> This seems to be the Bill that looks for BIG trouble again...
>
>
>
> http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/378154/dems-seize-ratchadamnoen-ave
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/political-tension-flares-thailand-over-amnesty-bill-090028708.html

more INJURIES and DEADS according to this report:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KogUAmSeQgs

if protest keep going to apply more pressure we will see more INJURIES and DEADS. HISTORY just keep repeating itself (COUP and more coups when the political candidate of the ARMY party is in the minority and NOT the party in the top government positions). HAPPY COUPING and repeat it once every few years to cleanup corruptions in the government

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 5, 2013, 5:33:15 AM12/5/13

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these coup are NOT leading from the so call plain citizens they were from the top at a LEVEL CLOSE TO THE ROYAL CIRCLE AND THE big army general THEMSELVES. those BIG and top people are under no one ELSE order EXCEPT the KING THAT´S why HISTORY HAVE SHOW THAT THE king STEPPED IN AND the protest/coup will be settle down peacefully. these top guys must be looking VERY HARD TO CREATE headache FOR THE KING by playing the ROYAL tune of cerebrating the KING´S B-DAY but behind that tune is the razor sharp knife that they want to poke the KING´S throat. i GUESS the KING must have a SMART team of secret agents to know when to step aside and let the coupers do their jobs to get rid of the corrupter and as soon as the KING know the coupers will be out of order than he STEP IN to settle the case.

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 5, 2013, 2:43:43 PM12/5/13

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On Tuesday, November 5, 2013 3:36:29 AM UTC-6, nottoo...@yahoo.com wrote:
> This seems to be the Bill that looks for BIG trouble again...
>
>
>
> http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/378154/dems-seize-ratchadamnoen-ave
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/political-tension-flares-thailand-over-amnesty-bill-090028708.html

ANOTHER DAY OF PROTEST ANOTHER NEWS STORY.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WG_g6d8cC0

according to the news above the leader of the protest had been issued a warrant for a crime punishable by DEAD or live in prison. it seemed as the government had compiled enough evidences to CHARGE someone of a MAJOR CRIME. just W8 N C.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 6, 2013, 7:32:31 AM12/6/13

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Yes, it's a serious charge against the protest leaders. However, since the protesters do not recognize the authority of this regime deemed illegitimate like I posted previously in some thread, they are not afraid and will show up at the court later to fight all charges after their mission is accomplished.

For the time being, the government is trying to find the way out of this crisis...Just wait and see how it is progresses...

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 6, 2013, 6:36:22 PM12/6/13

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more news the following youtube news indicates that after the arrest warrant had been issue the protesters are now calm down. it looks like the protest had some idea that the government had co9mpiled enough evidence to CHARGE the protest leader for a BIG CRIME so the normal non-leader of the protest is running out of hope to WIN. the protest leader has tons of money to defense himself in the COURT OF LAWS but for those normal Joe protests SEEMED TO FEAR THE MONEY TO DEFENSE HIMSELF SO HE is playing it soft to avoid getting a BIG charge into his protest record. IF I WERE THE NORMAL PROTESTER I WOULD AVOID GETTING ARREST AND PROSECUTE BY THE LAW. BECAUSE THE PROTEST LEADER WILL NOT PROVIDE AL THE MONEY for every protesters´ defense. each of the protesters is on his own to defense himself or face jail times. JUST W8 N C on Monday as claimed by protester leader that it will be a WINING DAY. WE WILL KNOW IT SOON ENOUGH in just a few more days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjtmKiTqBUk

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 6, 2013, 6:46:57 PM12/6/13

THOSE PROTESTERS ON THE 24TH as you mentioned are NOT STUPID but were Miss-leaded. when they join the PROTEST THEY ARE SIGNING AWAY THEIR LIVES. to know the tip of the iceberg and just use a little LOGIC to speculate the detail behind it still BETTER than knowing NOTHING and just join the protest knowing someone will FALL DOWN INJURE or DEAD and someone will get to go to JAIL or get kick in the BUTT. history shown that MANY A TIME. one of it just happened in 2006 to the current PM´S BROTHER thakxin. THAT ONE WAS A LITTLE much MORE LEGITIMATE BY THE COUP BECAUSE THE court WERE ABLE TO Give a 2-year-JAIL-SENTENCE. IF THE coup CAN DO THE SAME THIS TIME than BRAVO to the coup to get rid of a corrupter by convincing the COURT that the coup had evidence enough that the PM had been corrupted and did NOT deserve to hold the PM position so she deserve to be KICK on her BUTT hard enough to send her away from THAILAND for several years at the minimum. if the protesters just claim the PM is the puppy of THAKXIN without the proper evidence to back it up for the COURT than the protester deserve to be in JAIL for that FALSE acquisition against an elected official. just WAIT N C in another few days.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 8, 2013, 4:31:20 AM12/8/13

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Just wait and see tomorrow, it would be a decisive day for the protesters. If you think the more than a million-people shown up at the rally on the 245th were misled, you are absolutely wrong on that. These folks consisted of people from all walks of life including universities' students, professors, professionals, worker unions, commerce associations, and etc...Unlike the red-shirts which are mainly the rural uneducated people who are easily brainwashed and bought. Look at this video clip of 2010 for instance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuAQyc5d1HY

No one wants a military coup and it won't solve any problem. So far the military has shown no indication to step in.

As of this writing, all parliament members from the Democrat Party decide to quit and will join the BIG and, perhaps, a final rally against the government tomorrow. There is high probability that the regime would be forced out one way or another...

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 8, 2013, 4:45:32 AM12/8/13

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you can show 10 VDO that there are NO MILITARY INVOLVEMENT to counter it i just need ONE VDO to prove that the military is in the protesters GROUP and I already post the LINK in my previous reply. this case will flo9w according to THAILAND´S way of DEMOCRACY WITH SOME OLIGARCH WHO HAS GOOD CONNECTION WITH THE MILITARY somehow THAILAND is following the Myanmar system of MILITARY control the government where the PRESIDENT was elected BUT can not perform her duty. THAILAND keep kicking the PM out by the military so what GOOD is the election of the PM.

happy COUPING and pray that no one FALL DOWN or go to JAIL.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 8, 2013, 6:25:27 AM12/8/13

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As I've said previously that the military tends NOT to take the side of the Peua Thai Party (current) regime, but the police. You don't seem to get it! If the tanks coming out, that would be in the protesters' favor. Although no one wants military to get involved or make another coup d'etat, if something is getting worse, however, it might step in.

The protesters asked and welcome everyone includes military and all other security personnel to take off their uniforms to join in the rally unarmed as a free citizen of Thailand to kick the unethical and most corrupt regime out peacefully and return the power to the real owners of the country! Therefore, nothing wrong for military and other security personnel to join the rally, their basic rights.

In regard to election that you seem to repeat again and again, what is good for the election if the ones elected to rule are too corrupt and unethical and feel no ashamed about it??? Remember the WATER GATE's case? President Nixon quit the presidency for just merely committing a very light (I thought) unethical thing! The Thai politicians face skins are too thick to do likewise...

Although Thailand's military still has a lot of influence, but it rarely makes a military coup, only one, after the 1997 Constitution was used.

Only the major political reforms would stabilize Thailand in the long run. Any military coup won't solve anything and the military has learned that so well from the last coup...

I don't thing there would be any military coup this time but the people power revolution sounds more likely or else...

pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู

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Dec 8, 2013, 8:41:15 AM12/8/13

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according to this NEWS link the DEMOCRAT party QUIT their parliament duties in PROTEST because they are too few to WIN any VOTE now they DEMANDED a new council as government instead of the normal PRIMINISTER system of government.

GOOD LUCK SMART PROTESTERS. THAT DEMAND is to create a new system of government instead of the CURRENT type of government SYSTEM which it mean they NEED a RESTRUCTURING of the WHOLE THAI GOVERNMENT systyem which IS NOT a small THING ABOUT the PM OF THE CURRENT REGIME. IT INVOLVE THE current regime of the ROYAL system as well. just keep your head low or else the TANK will be rolling in soon if the KING hear your DEMAND according tio the NEWS LINK BELOW. this is NOT a SMALL thing that is WHY the government issued an arrest warrant for LIVE in prison or DEAD. creating a NEW GOVERNMENT or converting it to a new thing will certainly Face THIS dead TYPE OF PUNISHMENT if the government have enough evidences. the QUOT from this NEWS LINK is enough an evidence to commit the protesters into the HEAVIEST of the KNOWN punishment. the current regime INCLUDING the KING will belightning fast to eliminate thi8s type of TROUBLE MAKERS. the next time those water canons and rubber bullets will be REAL canon and metal bullets. any PROTESTERS OUT there in support of this p0olitical leader of this PROTEST is NOT only stupid BUT STUPIDx99 and deserve to throw his/her live right on street.

WHERE are those national security agents? those agents are 2LAZY and NOT WORKING as design or else something like this would had been known along time ago and eliminate this type of issue at the earliest time possible. at least NOT until millions of people are in PROTEST. if the current regime including the KING fail this time THAN they deserved it for having a LAZY and NON-FUNCTIONAL an allowing this new type of security system to evaluate NATIONAL SECURITY. THAT ALLOW this type of NEW/REP0LACEMENT government to grow right UNDER their noses. it would be a good thing if this new system is NOT from VIETNAM or CHINA. if it involved one of those countries than THAILAND will be GONE SOON.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/12/08/thailand-parliament-government-opposition/3908231/

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 8, 2013, 8:53:12 PM12/8/13

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Most of your posts are irrelevant to the real situation. That's all I can say about your comments.

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 8, 2013, 8:58:28 PM12/8/13

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pheejhmoo เอาหัวชนฝาเหล็กเพื่อเจาะรู,

As I previously expected the Peua Thai Party led government can't resist the popular resistant any longer declared the dissolution of parliament without any TANKS and military involved!

You'd better research more before posting too many nonsense comments!

Message has been deleted

nottoo...@yahoo.com

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Dec 8, 2013, 10:22:41 PM12/8/13

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Finally, the Peua Thai Party led regime dissolved the parliament but Yingluck, PM, said she will remain the head of the interim government until there is a new cabinet. The protesters are not likely to accept that. They want all current crooked politicians to quit, period!

The rally won't stop until the interim government quits also!

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/383913/prime-minister-yingluck-announces-house-dissolution-general-election

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Her Lao

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Dec 8, 2013, 10:27:43 PM12/8/13

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Both Ukraine and Thailand are in the process of kicking out their top elected "public servants."

I never understood why or how Thaksin's little sister --- who really had no knowledge of politics, no knowledge of politicians, no knowledge of how to run any public office ... except being a person from Thaksin's mafia billion dollar business empire --- was elected PM in the first place.

Of course, if you're rich or powerful and have the military and semi-"god" king on your side, or at least being "neutral," I guess any thing is possible in Thailand, a country on perpetual coups, since the early 1900s....

Message has been deleted