The Ecological Limits of Work: on carbon emissions, carbon budgets and working time

[Tom Walker]

New report from Autonomy think tank in U.K.,"The Ecological Limits of Work," and Guardian feature on it, Much shorter working weeks needed to tackle climate crisis – study

People across Europe will need to work drastically fewer hours to avoid disastrous climate heating unless there is a radical decarbonising of the economy, according to a study.
The research, from thinktank Autonomy, shows workers in the UK would need to move to nine-hour weeks to keep the country on track to avoid more than 2C of heating at current carbon intensity levels. Similar reductions were found to be necessary in Sweden and Germany.
The findings are based on OECD and UN data on greenhouse gas emissions per industry in the three countries. It found that at current carbon levels, all three would require a drastic reduction in working hours as well as urgent measures to decarbonise the economy to prevent climate breakdown.
Will Stronge, the director of Autonomy, said the research highlighted the need to include reductions in working hours as part of the efforts to address the climate emergency....

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Cheers,

Tom Walker (Sandwichman)

[Noel Gerard Keough]

A very interesting piece of work. 

The Guardian article if it correctly interpreted that work has a flaw though. 

IT holds out the hope of synergy between shorter work week and automation. Perhaps but… 

If we simply replace humans with machines we do nothing to reduce the exploitation of resources, the climate emergency or the biodiversity crisis. 

Some more critical analysis needed here.

Noel Keough

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[Tom Walker]

Agreed that much "critical analysis" is needed here. Particularly needed is critical analysis of the objections raised to shorter work time over the last two centuries by economists and political economists before them. I've done a quite a bit of that critical analysis and am happy (and eager) to share with anyone interested. 

[Tom Abeles]

There are several issues that I do not understand;

a) do we separate "work" from "jobs" where the latter is associated with compensation in liquid script.

b) do we separate the "goods and services" into categories that can identify the amount of carbon or other resources that are used to meet demand for such from goods and services which consume energy and natural resources or increase consumption or produce products detrimental to the environment? 

c) How do we deal with this on a global scale where we can't even deal with the current opioid crisis or the world market in endangered species-- or the current issues surrounding the increasing spread in wealth distribution?

thoughts?

tom

tom abeles

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[Ruben Nelson]

Tom,

I find that your third question to be the show stopper.

In 2019, I cannot find a single country or culture or institution that has a reliable handle on our times or how to respond to them in ways that will make differences that do not make things worse.

The air if full slogans and promises that are unhinged from both physical and human realities, e.g. let’s move to 100% renewables; let’s ensure that AI will be used wisely; let’s ensure growth and jobs.

Trusted leaders who have the insight and courage to lead us to a deeper maturity are silent or absent.

I expect the next 30 years will be as tumultuous and pain-filled as were the 30 years from 1920 to 1950.  And we are not at all ready for the experience.  Actually, we are in worse shape than folks were in 1920.

Given the above, I seek a hope that is the other side of despair.  For despair at now unimagined scales is already baked in.

Ruben

 

Ruben Nelson

Executive Director

Foresight Canada

www.foresightcanada.com

 

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[Tom Abeles]

Tom W and Ruben:

Leontief pointed out that there has always been a "leisure class" many of whose members have made significant contributions to society through out history and across cultures. Therein lies the problem. The society, as a whole,  seems to be trending to such a situation and is not equipped to respond to such a possibility and to deal with this if technology or environmental issues create and/or demand such an opportunity. We see this when individuals retire, or in Japan, for example, where persons who are out of work continue to dress and act as if they had jobs, etc. The issue, as Lakoff and others would note, is that we have no way to "frame"  or "reframe" this within our culture. Similarly, we have this with the issue of consumption which is reinforced by marketing, e.g. Facebook. E.M. Forester's "The Machine Stops" is insightful as is Stephenson's "The Diamond Age". The literature around "work" vs "jobs" is being seen thru an obsolete frame and thus resists dealing with such a disruption and impeding solutions to the issues surrounding climate change. For example, if we could reframe the specifics of a Green New Deal, GND, the idea of a Universal Basic Income, UBI, within a new frame then funding for both becomes moot.

The same issue occurs when one deals with goods/services within the context of work/jobs. The argument within the current "frame" is academic sophistry, an effort to find a path without a socio/economic disruption. Ruben's response is on the mark. Researchers in the arena of artificial intelligence, AI, place it in the category of a "general purpose technology", GPT. Machine Learning, ML or deep learning is in such a category, also- one which has many, seemingly disparate uses. We see this, for example, in the idea of a bank, an area undergoing rapid disintermediation before the eyes of personnel seeing a system changing rapidly while they are within the system.

tom abeles

[Tom Walker]

"Leontief pointed out that there has always been a "leisure class" many of whose members have made significant contributions to society through out history and across cultures ..."

Thorsten Veblen invented the concept of the "leisure class" and it is important to distinguish between the leisure of this class and leisure in the sense of time freed from labour. Veblen's leisure class dominated over women and industrial workers and distinguished themselves through conspicuous consumption, conspicuous leisure and conspicuous waste. Waste and consumption are, of course, the topics central to this group. Veblen's theory of the leisure class is most informative for parsing the stratification of work and social status in contemporary society. Veblen's analysis is thus crucial for reframing the distinctions between work and jobs.

[Tom Abeles]

Hi Tom, 

you are right. And therein lies the problem as I noted regarding what happens to "workers" when they retire, or what happened with the workforce in Japan when they were laid off or, when jobs are eliminated or reduced. The "leisure" class, are part of the segmented society in the US where some individuals have access to different culture and socio/economic advantages and different life experiences. One does not expect the "blue collar", depending on age and other factors, to readily respond to a disruptive situation regarding work/jobs. There are different cultural frames. One might suggest that needing a "job" or "work" provided by others to be equivalent to being on an opiate and needing some sort of way to taper off whether heroin or nicotine.

As I noted, the same issue is extant in the consumer society. Just think if the issue was not jobs/work but addiction to consumption. What happens to the carbon footprint if all of a sudden there is a consumption decompression. Right now the push for work/jobs is a neoliberal model towards climate change. It's a variance or an element of a "growth"model where SCORAI members, I would suspect, favor degrowth. What happens if society said mass public transport or bicycles. What happens to the carbon footprint? what then?

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The UBI has much the same problem. As most of us understand, the ability to fund a UBI or a shorter work week is possible in the US. The question is at what level or life style. That's the elephant in the room, the expectation/fear of a change in lifestyle. Right now, the growing disparity between the upper and lower quartiles is expanding which gives certain classes the resources to easily adapt to a shorter work/job situation, and little to disturb their lifestyle. On the other hand, the other 99% to a large degree is tied to the job/work addiction. It's right in the GND, good jobs with good pay in a society where the unemployment is currently below the needs for industry.

[Ashwani Vasishth]

Tom A. says, in small part: "On the other hand, the other 99% to a large degree is tied to the job/work addiction. It's right in the GND, good jobs with good pay..."

With regard to job/work addiction, well this "addiction" is socially and culturally constructed--in most cases, certainly amongst the proletariat.  As such, it can, with some slight attention, be deconstituted too.  That deconstruction, when taken along with genuinely "good jobs" with "good pay," would serve the purpose for 80% of the world.  What to do with time, that is freed up with shorter work weeks, etc., CAN resolve itself (with some good ol' socialist social engineering).

By the way (he said from his observational perch in Cologne), why is it that UPS can think to start to switch its fleet to electric trucks in Europe, but not in the US?

-- 
     Ashwani
        Vasishth         vasi...@ramapo.edu          (201) 684-6616
                   http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth
          --------------------------------------------------------
                  Associate Professor of Sustainability
                  Convener, Sustainability Program (BA)
President, New Jersey Higher Education Partnership for Sustainability (NJHEPS)
                    Director, Center for Sustainability
                     http://ramapo.edu/sustainability

                       Ramapo College of New Jersey
              505 Ramapo Valley Road, SSHS, Mahwah, NJ 07430
         --------------------------------------------------------

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[Ashwani Vasishth]

Tom A. says, in small part: "On the other hand, the other 99% to a large degree is tied to the job/work addiction. It's right in the GND, good jobs with good pay..."

With regard to job/work addiction, well this "addiction" is socially and culturally constitued--in most cases, certainly amongst the proletariat.  As such, it can, with some slight attention, be deconstituted too.  That deconstruction, when taken along with genuinely "good jobs" with "good pay," would serve the purpose for 80% of the world.  What to do with time, that is freed up with shorter work weeks, etc., CAN resolve itself (with some good ol' socialist social engineering).

By the way (he said from his observational perch in Cologne), how is it that UPS can think to start to switch its fleet to electric trucks in Europe, but not in the US?

-- 
     Ashwani
        Vasishth         vasi...@ramapo.edu          (201) 684-6616
                   http://phobos.ramapo.edu/~vasishth
          --------------------------------------------------------
                  Associate Professor of Sustainability
                  Convener, Sustainability Program (BA)
President, New Jersey Higher Education Partnership for Sustainability (NJHEPS)
                    Director, Center for Sustainability
                     http://ramapo.edu/sustainability

                       Ramapo College of New Jersey
              505 Ramapo Valley Road, SSHS, Mahwah, NJ 07430
         --------------------------------------------------------

On 5/23/19 11:34 PM, Tom Abeles wrote:

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[Tom Abeles]

Dear Ashwani

Regarding UPS and electric vehicles, a quick Google search: http://tinyurl.com/y24tvg7g

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Regarding "social engineering, I would suggest that you visit the studies of the Millennium Village project in Africa headed up by an academic.

As most of the persons on this list understand, economic models have a myriad of problems, particularly when taking theory to practice

As I have said, previously, the US and other countries (many who have identified, and labeled, the GND, over a decade ago have no problem financing a version of the GND if anyone could put flesh on the theory, as well as a UBI. As Lewis Carroll wrote: The time has come... to speak of many things... and whether pigs have wings".

One of the keys, as mentioned by others, in these exchanges, is not economics but finance, the situation, which, if it is not changed, will send the funds from the 99% to the 1%. The other critical piece, also as suggested, is that this is a coupled system. Change one piece, and the whole changes in a complex and non reproducible manner in practice (and theory). Thus, there are consequences to reducing power production to zero carbon emissions which no one on this thread has addressed in theory or practice- similarly with "good jobs".

tom abeles

Minneapolis, MN 

Kigali, Rwanda

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[Colby, Ashley Lynn]

In response to Tom, "On the other hand, the other 99% to a large degree is tied to the job/work addiction. It's right in the GND, good jobs with good pay..."

 

I am not sure if I’ve seen a good measurement of this, but my sense is that this number (99%) is very far from accurate. Certainly, people want stability, but in my research I am finding myriad groups of people who not only are not addicted to work, they are actively pursuing different livelihoods that aren’t tied to work. Think of downshifting, Transition Towns, sharing economies (small scale, not Uber), co-ops, time banks where people pay with their time and skills, upticks in interest in food production to be able to work less, and the list goes on.

 

As far as I can tell, there is a seething critique of the capitalist treadmill running under the surface of almost everyone’s consciousness. I know you have all heard people express this general sense of “this world is crazy/screwed/terrible.” If it’s a conservative person, they may tie their dissatisfaction to government incompetence. If it’s a liberal, they’ll tie it to corporate exploitation. I actually feel that most people are sick of the ‘rat race’ which is squeezing all but the top 1% of earners (in America) tighter and tighter.

 

The reasons people give for this sense of alienation aren’t that important to me, because as a sociologist my theoretical assessment is that they are essentially all describing the alienation that comes from capitalist exploitation. Most of the people I talk to are looking for some alternatives that bring some meaning and connection to nature, work, and community back into their lives, and this looks different for different people. Some people grow food, some people join a co-op, some people work less and spend less, some people go KonMari/minimalist, etc.

 

Again, I am a qual researcher so I haven’t seen survey data that measures overall dissatisfaction with one’s work life in general, but my sense is that it is quite widespread.

 

Ashley

 

Ashley Colby Fitzgerald

ash...@rizomafieldschool.com

ashley...@wsu.edu

PhD, Environmental Sociology

Instructor, Washington State University

Co-founder Rizoma Field School

Colonia, Uruguay

.
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[Tom Abeles]

Hi Ashley

First, we are discussing the US. If beyond we need to make clear

Second, the GND calls for "good jobs" with "good pay" as stated in the document usually linked to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, and not the UBI or some form of guaranteed income which, when discussed is basically a "base" pay. Neither suggests a program which does not include some form of compensation, primarily some form of employment rather than the alternatives such as owning a business/income stream, including being "paid" whether a job or gig work.

Third, we need to pry apart the demographics by age, education/skills, and lifestyles, including income expectations.

Fourth, as I mention, this is a complex system meaning that going zero carbon for power has consequences, as does every other "wish" promulgated under either a UBI or, particularly, here, the GND.

Finally, and which, probably should be 1st, the wealth distribution system or re-distribution is a critical component. The "99% vs 1% is a metaphorical or cultural frame and not to be taken literally. Until this issue is addressed in practice and not as a "socially conceived" or modeled idea(l), the matrix under either the GND or UBI is still born, lacking the right genetics for a general or scaleable idea. All that one has to do is look at the failed development projects, globally, citing the Millennium Development project and in AID on the Edge of Chaos) or the attempt to social engineer these in the developed economies-though, to mis appropriate Shakespeare, true as irony, "It is a consummation devoutly to be wished"

Doesn't economics start with the "ideal person" in an ideal matrix, lop off those externalities which create messy and difficult to solve models such as those mentioned above and voila, QED.

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