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Robert Clark
Apr 23, 2015, 6:35:56 PM4/23/15
to
Advent of the memristor.
I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
memristor:
Machine Dreams.
To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot bid
to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
Bob Clark
------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com
------------------------------------------------------------------
I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
memristor:
Machine Dreams.
To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot bid
to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
Bob Clark
------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com
------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Findley
Apr 24, 2015, 6:08:43 AM4/24/15
to
In article <mhbs2d$kjg$1...@dont-email.me>,
rgrego...@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com says...
problems. So, even if individual cores aren't growing faster, machines,
and the programs that run on them, will keep growing faster. 16+ core
machines with 64GB+ RAM aren't uncommon to find on an engineer's desk.
Also, one new technology that has taken off are SSDs. Put several of
those in a RAID configuration (for speed) into a desktop and even
processes that are disk I/O bound are sped up considerably.
Some companies are also looking closely at "terminals attached to
mainframes" again, only now they call it "cloud computing". A meager
desktop with a high speed connection to a server can take advantage of
the server's speed and storage while allowing a company to better
control where their data is stored inside their network. The names have
changed, but the idea is much the same as it was in the 1980's when I
was running CAD/CAM/CAE software on a Tektronix graphics terminal
attached to a VAX mainframe.
Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer
rgrego...@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com says...
>
> Advent of the memristor.
>
> I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
> slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
> new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
> memristor:
>
> Machine Dreams.
> To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot bid
> to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
> By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
> http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
>
We've been attacking problems by throwing more cores and more RAM at
> Advent of the memristor.
>
> I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
> slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
> new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
> memristor:
>
> Machine Dreams.
> To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot bid
> to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
> By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
> http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
>
problems. So, even if individual cores aren't growing faster, machines,
and the programs that run on them, will keep growing faster. 16+ core
machines with 64GB+ RAM aren't uncommon to find on an engineer's desk.
Also, one new technology that has taken off are SSDs. Put several of
those in a RAID configuration (for speed) into a desktop and even
processes that are disk I/O bound are sped up considerably.
Some companies are also looking closely at "terminals attached to
mainframes" again, only now they call it "cloud computing". A meager
desktop with a high speed connection to a server can take advantage of
the server's speed and storage while allowing a company to better
control where their data is stored inside their network. The names have
changed, but the idea is much the same as it was in the 1980's when I
was running CAD/CAM/CAE software on a Tektronix graphics terminal
attached to a VAX mainframe.
Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer
Message has been deleted
jmfbahciv
Apr 24, 2015, 10:34:46 AM4/24/15
to
Jeff Findley wrote:
> In article <mhbs2d$kjg$1...@dont-email.me>,
> rgrego...@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com says...
>>
>> Advent of the memristor.
>>
>> I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
>> slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
>> new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
>> memristor:
>>
>> Machine Dreams.
>> To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot
bid
>> to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
>> By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
>> http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
>>
>
> We've been attacking problems by throwing more cores and more RAM at
> problems. So, even if individual cores aren't growing faster, machines,
> and the programs that run on them, will keep growing faster. 16+ core
> machines with 64GB+ RAM aren't uncommon to find on an engineer's desk.
>
> Also, one new technology that has taken off are SSDs. Put several of
> those in a RAID configuration (for speed) into a desktop and even
> processes that are disk I/O bound are sped up considerably.
That will produce configurations which are CPU bound which will be
> In article <mhbs2d$kjg$1...@dont-email.me>,
> rgrego...@gmSPAMBLOACKail.com says...
>>
>> Advent of the memristor.
>>
>> I was interested to note that the advance in processor speeds seemed to be
>> slowing, diverging from what might be expected by Moore's law. However, a
>> new technology may ramp up speeds as well as storage density again via the
>> memristor:
>>
>> Machine Dreams.
>> To rescue its struggling business, Hewlett-Packard is making a long-shot
bid
>> to change the fundamentals of how computers work.
>> By Tom Simonite on April 21, 2015
>> http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/536786/machine-dreams/
>>
>
> We've been attacking problems by throwing more cores and more RAM at
> problems. So, even if individual cores aren't growing faster, machines,
> and the programs that run on them, will keep growing faster. 16+ core
> machines with 64GB+ RAM aren't uncommon to find on an engineer's desk.
>
> Also, one new technology that has taken off are SSDs. Put several of
> those in a RAID configuration (for speed) into a desktop and even
> processes that are disk I/O bound are sped up considerably.
solved by throwing a "better" disk storage at it which will produce
configurations which are I/O bound which will be solved by throwing
a better CPU technology at it which will.....
The computing biz has been this was since forever.
>
> Some companies are also looking closely at "terminals attached to
> mainframes" again, only now they call it "cloud computing".
Isn't that stretching the definition? If not, it used to be called
> Some companies are also looking closely at "terminals attached to
> mainframes" again, only now they call it "cloud computing".
timesharing.
Robert Clark
Apr 24, 2015, 11:14:45 PM4/24/15
to
Fascinating and more than a little scary. Peter Diamandis expresses this
point about 14 minutes into this lecture:
Exponential Thinking (Peter Diamandis) - Exponential Finance 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvLFoMNzD_k
I like what he says about technology "S-curves". This means the advances
that allow the continuing exponential growth involve continual changes in
the paradigm underlying the technology. For instance, we went from relays,
to vacuum tubes, to transistors, to integrated circuits. Then we should
expect some change in the underlying technology of computing again that will
allow the exponential growth to continue further, perhaps the memristor or
optical computing.
Bob Clark
------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com
------------------------------------------------------------------
wrote in message
news:04cfbd70-eda7-45b1...@googlegroups.com...
Other computing advancements in the works:
...
======================================================
Our iPhones will soon be more intelligent than we are:
"Ray Kurzweil made a startling prediction in 1999 that appears to be coming
true: that by 2023 a $1,000 laptop would have the computing power and
storage
capacity of a human brain."
See:
http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/23/our-iphones-will-soon-be-more-intelligent-than-we-are/
---
point about 14 minutes into this lecture:
Exponential Thinking (Peter Diamandis) - Exponential Finance 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvLFoMNzD_k
I like what he says about technology "S-curves". This means the advances
that allow the continuing exponential growth involve continual changes in
the paradigm underlying the technology. For instance, we went from relays,
to vacuum tubes, to transistors, to integrated circuits. Then we should
expect some change in the underlying technology of computing again that will
allow the exponential growth to continue further, perhaps the memristor or
optical computing.
Bob Clark
------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com
------------------------------------------------------------------
news:04cfbd70-eda7-45b1...@googlegroups.com...
Other computing advancements in the works:
...
======================================================
Our iPhones will soon be more intelligent than we are:
"Ray Kurzweil made a startling prediction in 1999 that appears to be coming
true: that by 2023 a $1,000 laptop would have the computing power and
storage
capacity of a human brain."
See:
http://venturebeat.com/2015/04/23/our-iphones-will-soon-be-more-intelligent-than-we-are/
---
rl...@unice.fr
Apr 27, 2015, 8:59:39 PM4/27/15
to
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rene_Lozi
René Lozi
Professor , University of Nice-Sophia Antipolis, France
Robert Clark
May 3, 2015, 7:13:36 AM5/3/15
to
Thanks for that. But I noticed there is a flaw in the argument for the soon
advent of AI by Kurzweil and others based purely on speed of processing. I
mentioned Peter Diamandis supports Kurzweil's thesis in this lecture about
14 minutes in:
Exponential Thinking (Peter Diamandis) - Exponential Finance 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvLFoMNzD_k
Diamandis says commonly available computers now operate at speeds of
hundreds of billions of calculations per second. That puzzled me because
PC's commonly are operating now only at a few Ghz, or billions of cycles,
per second, which I took to mean the same as the number of instructions
being executed per second.
However, it was explained on the Scientific Transhumanism Facebook group
that the higher number Kurzweil, Diamandis and others cite arises from the
number of cores being used. See for example the list near the end here:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instructions_per_second#Timeline_of_instructions_per_secondBut the problem then is some supercomputers like the "Fujitsu K" on thislist which use hundreds of thousands of cores already are calculating atrates Kurzweil says are like those of the human brain. But nobody says suchsupercomputers are at the level of the human brain. The problem is breakinga specific problem into parts that can be addressed by the separate cores. Bob Clark------------------------------------------------------------------Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years agowith the Titan II first stage.In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,and the result will automatically be SSTO.Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com------------------------------------------------------------------wrote in messagenews:ab15d50b-b3d2-4df2...@googlegroups.com...Pathways, Timelines and Superintelligence Scenario:"Wait but Why summarizes some of the timelines and definitions forartificialsuper-intelligence. The general consensus among AI researchers is thatArtificial superintelligence could arrive around 2060.Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as "an intellect that is much smarterthan the best human brains in practically every field, including scientificcreativity, general wisdom and social skills".""Biological cognition, i.e., the enhancement of human intelligence, mayyield aweak form of superintelligence on its own. Additionally, improvements tobiological cognition could feed back into driving the progress of artificialintelligence or whole brain emulation.""Lower costs, more effective IVR and better CRISPR genome engineering shouldsee IVR/genetic engineering heading towards 2-10% of population.This can lead to the scenario of millions of "Tony Stark" like supergeniusesbefore any true synthetic superintelligence. The genetic and pharmaenhancements would also be able to provide safe steroid effects and bonesthatcan break surgical drills. Some people have the genes for very strong bones.You could also dial up the speed of healing and regeneration.""At the British Friends of Bar-Ilan University's event in Otto Uomo October2014 Professor Ido Bachelet announced the beginning of the human treatmentwithnanomedicine. He indicates DNA nanobots can currently identify cells inhumanswith 12 different types of cancer tumors.A human patient with late stage leukemia will be given DNA nanobottreatment.Without the DNA nanobot treatment the patient would be expected to die inthesummer of 2015. Based upon animal trials they expect to remove the cancerwithin one month.Within 1 or 2 years they hope to have spinal cord repair working in animalsandthen shortly thereafter in humans. This is working in tissue cultures."See:http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/05/pathways-timelines-and.htmlWelcome to the bright side of the Singularity. :)---
advent of AI by Kurzweil and others based purely on speed of processing. I
mentioned Peter Diamandis supports Kurzweil's thesis in this lecture about
14 minutes in:
Exponential Thinking (Peter Diamandis) - Exponential Finance 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvLFoMNzD_k
hundreds of billions of calculations per second. That puzzled me because
PC's commonly are operating now only at a few Ghz, or billions of cycles,
per second, which I took to mean the same as the number of instructions
being executed per second.
However, it was explained on the Scientific Transhumanism Facebook group
that the higher number Kurzweil, Diamandis and others cite arises from the
number of cores being used. See for example the list near the end here:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instructions_per_second#Timeline_of_instructions_per_secondBut the problem then is some supercomputers like the "Fujitsu K" on thislist which use hundreds of thousands of cores already are calculating atrates Kurzweil says are like those of the human brain. But nobody says suchsupercomputers are at the level of the human brain. The problem is breakinga specific problem into parts that can be addressed by the separate cores. Bob Clark------------------------------------------------------------------Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years agowith the Titan II first stage.In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,and the result will automatically be SSTO.Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com------------------------------------------------------------------wrote in messagenews:ab15d50b-b3d2-4df2...@googlegroups.com...Pathways, Timelines and Superintelligence Scenario:"Wait but Why summarizes some of the timelines and definitions forartificialsuper-intelligence. The general consensus among AI researchers is thatArtificial superintelligence could arrive around 2060.Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as "an intellect that is much smarterthan the best human brains in practically every field, including scientificcreativity, general wisdom and social skills".""Biological cognition, i.e., the enhancement of human intelligence, mayyield aweak form of superintelligence on its own. Additionally, improvements tobiological cognition could feed back into driving the progress of artificialintelligence or whole brain emulation.""Lower costs, more effective IVR and better CRISPR genome engineering shouldsee IVR/genetic engineering heading towards 2-10% of population.This can lead to the scenario of millions of "Tony Stark" like supergeniusesbefore any true synthetic superintelligence. The genetic and pharmaenhancements would also be able to provide safe steroid effects and bonesthatcan break surgical drills. Some people have the genes for very strong bones.You could also dial up the speed of healing and regeneration.""At the British Friends of Bar-Ilan University's event in Otto Uomo October2014 Professor Ido Bachelet announced the beginning of the human treatmentwithnanomedicine. He indicates DNA nanobots can currently identify cells inhumanswith 12 different types of cancer tumors.A human patient with late stage leukemia will be given DNA nanobottreatment.Without the DNA nanobot treatment the patient would be expected to die inthesummer of 2015. Based upon animal trials they expect to remove the cancerwithin one month.Within 1 or 2 years they hope to have spinal cord repair working in animalsandthen shortly thereafter in humans. This is working in tissue cultures."See:http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/05/pathways-timelines-and.htmlWelcome to the bright side of the Singularity. :)---
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