If it looks like a blitz and smells like a blitz...

[Tim Chow]

XGID=aaB-aBB-C---dD---b-bbbAA--:0:0:1:42:0:0:1:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O X | | |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

[Bradley K. Sherman]

Tim Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | O | | |
> | O X | | |
> | O X | | X X X |
> | O X | | X X O X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+

> X:147 O:168, Cube:1, X to play 42

I know this position! I play
13/11,8/4*
and I get gammoned.

--bks

[badgolferman]

I think you must hit. Let's play 8/4*, 8/6.

[Walt]

Nine checkers in the zone doesn't quite smell or look like blitz to me.
That said, attacking seems more important than springing a runner with
22/18.

the attacking opptions seem to be

1) bring two down from the midpoint, but this seems like preparing to
attack instead of attacking. The additional roll gives O too much
opportunity to fight back.

2) pick and pass with 8/4*/2

3) hit loose and bring one down 8/4* 13/11

4) hit loose and create another builder with 8/6


Pick and pass seems too passive, and 8/4* 8/6 just feels wrong - I want
to keep the 8 point here. So that leaves 13/11 8/4*.

//Walt



--
//Walt

[Taper_Mike]

... Then it must be a blitz!

Hitting is easy. The only choice is whether to break the 8pt or
play down off the mid.

I think the position falls apart too much when X breaks his 8pt, and
then gets hit. If he cannot hit back immediately, his equity drops
dramatically.

Playing down gives X a more balanced position.

H (Hit) = 13/11 8/4*

[Tim Chow]

This position actually arose for me at DMP. I chose to run, which is not as bad a blunder at DMP as it would be for money, but still not the right idea. For money, it's clear to hit. What I found surprising was that the computer seems to prefer 8/6 to 13/11, despite O's strong board.

Glad to see Mike Taper de-lurking, by the way!

=======
Rollout
=======

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/4* eq:+0.274
Player: 53.25% (G:24.66% B:1.86%)
Opponent: 46.75% (G:13.97% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.259..+0.289) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/4* eq:+0.238 (-0.036)
Player: 52.78% (G:24.62% B:2.07%)
Opponent: 47.22% (G:14.18% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.219..+0.258) - [0.2%]

3. Rollout² 22/16 eq:+0.086 (-0.188)
Player: 51.15% (G:17.57% B:1.04%)
Opponent: 48.85% (G:13.67% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (+0.064..+0.107) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 22/18 8/6 eq:+0.067 (-0.207)
Player: 50.61% (G:17.89% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 49.39% (G:14.28% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (+0.044..+0.091) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout² 8/4* 6/4 eq:+0.062 (-0.212)
Player: 49.43% (G:21.86% B:1.65%)
Opponent: 50.57% (G:15.07% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.029 (+0.032..+0.091) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout² 8/4* 4/2 eq:+0.057 (-0.217)
Player: 48.99% (G:22.13% B:1.29%)
Opponent: 51.01% (G:14.90% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (+0.033..+0.080) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Using version 1

---
Tim Chow

[Taper_Mike]

Tim Chow wrote:

>
> Glad to see Mike Taper de-lurking, by the way!
>

Hi, Tim! Hello to all!

I finally got a Usenet client (XPN), so I can post without giving
the family jewels to Google. It was Google's imposition of NGG that did
it. When they did that, the monospaced font went away, and I could not
even read the darn feed.

Nice to be able talk back at y'all instead of just lurking!

Mike

P.S. For what it's worth, I have been told that, for reasons of
privacy, it is recommened not to get your email where you do your
searches. Since I use Yahoo! for email and Google for searching, that
nixed signing up for access to Google Groups. Otherwise, I would have
been here a long time ago.

[Tim Chow]

On Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:28:11 PM UTC-4, Taper_Mike wrote:
> I finally got a Usenet client (XPN), so I can post without giving
> the family jewels to Google. It was Google's imposition of NGG that did
> it. When they did that, the monospaced font went away, and I could not
> even read the darn feed.

I'm still stumbling along with Google Groups. I click on the "show original message" options to view the backgammon

> P.S. For what it's worth, I have been told that, for reasons of
> privacy, it is recommened not to get your email where you do your
> searches.

I haven't heard that before. What is the logic?

You could consider using DuckDuckGo for searching. That provides more search privacy than Google does. DuckDuckGo does not customize your search results based on your previous searches. The rationale, besides privacy, is that this avoids the so-called "filter bubble," where you never get exposed to things that you don't want to see. In domains such as religion or politics, the filter bubble can reinforce prejudices.

---
Tim Chow

[Taper_Mike]

Tim Chow wrote:

> On Wednesday, July 10, 2013 12:28:11 PM UTC-4, Taper_Mike wrote:
>> I finally got a Usenet client (XPN), so I can post without giving
>> the family jewels to Google. It was Google's imposition of NGG that did
>> it. When they did that, the monospaced font went away, and I could not
>> even read the darn feed.
>
> I'm still stumbling along with Google Groups. I click on the "show
> original message" options to view the backgammon
>

XPN is small, simple, and free. It is not bloated with email, browsing,
and so on. I'm not committed to it, but I like what I've seen in the
last few days. One feature I have not found, but which may be present,
is the ability to archive usenet messages on my computer, so that I
can review them later without having to connect. Offline reading is
the buzz phrase. One limitation with XPN is that it does not do binary
feeds. It is for text, not vids and pics. That's not a problem for
reading rec.games.backgammon. I am using a free news server named
Aioe.org. It requires no registration, allows anonymous posting, and
keeps no records. It is also text-only.

>> P.S. For what it's worth, I have been told that, for reasons of
>> privacy, it is recommened not to get your email where you do your
>> searches.
>
> I haven't heard that before. What is the logic?
>

Google associates your search history with an IP address. If you
register for gmail or Google Groups, they associate it with the name and
address you have provided them. FYI: Both Google and Yahoo have an
opt-out which allows you to specify that they are not to read your
emails.

> You could consider using DuckDuckGo for searching. That provides more
> search privacy than Google does. DuckDuckGo does not customize your
> search results based on your previous searches. The rationale, besides
> privacy, is that this avoids the so-called "filter bubble," where you
> never get exposed to things that you don't want to see. In domains such
> as religion or politics, the filter bubble can reinforce prejudices.
>

I like DuckDuckGo. I read through all their explanations about the
bubble. One bit of advice, however, be sure to connect using https
(ssl). It is not automatic with DuckDuckGo. My current search engine
favorite is StartPage.com. They provide anonymous searching at Google
via proxy. They keep no records, and only use https. They also will
open many web pages directly, acting a proxy for your surfing. The
founder wrote a nice letter after the recent revelations regarding the
lack of privacy in the USA. It was rather entertaining. He said that
his web site operates under the jurisdiction of Norway, and if the USA
thinks they can get him to surrender his records (there are none), it
will have to send its lawyers to Scandinavia!

Mike

[Taper_Mike]

Taper_Mike wrote:

> Aioe.org

I misspoke here. Aioe keeps a message log as required by Italian law
that records messages and originating IP addresses. They do not record
your name (since they don't have it). They delete all records as soon as
the law allows.

[badgolferman]

Taper_Mike wrote:

>XPN is small, simple, and free. It is not bloated with email,
>browsing, and so on. I'm not committed to it, but I like what I've
>seen in the last few days. One feature I have not found, but which
>may be present, is the ability to archive usenet messages on my
>computer, so that I can review them later without having to connect.
>Offline reading is the buzz phrase. One limitation with XPN is that
>it does not do binary feeds. It is for text, not vids and pics.
>That's not a problem for reading rec.games.backgammon. I am using a
>free news server named Aioe.org. It requires no registration, allows
>anonymous posting, and keeps no records. It is also text-only.

I recommend Xananews. It does all that and more. Very configurable.

http://www.softpedia.com/get/Internet/News-Newsgroups-Blog-Tools/XanaNews.shtml

[Taper_Mike]

badgolferman wrote:

> I recommend Xananews. It does all that and more. Very configurable.
>
> http://www.softpedia.com/get/Internet/News-Newsgroups-Blog-Tools/XanaNews.shtml

Thanks for the tip. I am going to try this.

Do you have any recommendations for free usenet servers?

Mike

[badgolferman]

The ones I use are Albasani and eternal-september, but they are only
text-based. They require free registration also. AIOE is the only one
I know of that doesn't require registration.

I have been using Xananews for many years and will be happy to help you
set it up to your satisfaction. The keyboard shortcuts are my favorite
aspect of the program. You can send me emails or subscribe to
alt.usenet.offline-reader.xananews

[Taper_Mike]

badgolferman wrote:

> I have been using Xananews for many years and will be happy to help
> you set it up to your satisfaction. The keyboard shortcuts are my
> favorite aspect of the program. You can send me emails or subscribe
> to alt.usenet.offline-reader.xananews

Thanks for the tips. I guess I've got some homework to do. I appreciate
your help.